Group Breaks Valuation and the hobby
 

For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the Fanatics App. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?

Mike Trout (and pretty much everyone else still breathing) will be signing for a long long time

i would expect his and everyone elses autos to be more affordable as time goes by

What does “the hobby” in your title mean??

If you can correctly answer that question then you already know how to answer your other ones.

Agree with you. This is not the hobby. I just question why these group breaks continue to drive things. Other than the manufacturers and the breakers, who comes out ahead? How long will it be until the equation is no longer profitable for them?

Most people who get into breaks are not holding their break hits for 15 years…

Also, you could say the same thing about the entire hobby as far as value, not just group breaks.

Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319252]Agree with you. This is not the hobby. I just question why these group breaks continue to drive things. Other than the manufacturers and the breakers, who comes out ahead? How long will it be until the equation is no longer profitable for them?[/QUOTE]

You are dealing with degenerate gamblers in most cases. A tale as old as time.

I don't see a time where it is never profitable to them because there will always be an old degen pumping his pay into breaks and new ones getting that first break buzz! With more hits than ever, that dopamine rush gets them early!

I am guilty of this, but have really eased up on my breaking and now get into fiscal trouble buying singles :)

[QUOTE=Badgers0821;19319262]Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.[/QUOTE]

You can't avoid it, as much as you want to.

[QUOTE=Badgers0821;19319262]Most people who get into breaks are not holding their break hits for 15 years…

Also, you could say the same thing about the entire hobby as far as value, not just group breaks.

Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.[/QUOTE]

This thread brings in the “Mike Trout’s future value” and the “I hate breakers” crowd. It’s like it was scientifically engineered to go for 25 pages.

Gamblers aren’t hobbyists, they’re resellers.

[QUOTE=IronCladLou;19319267]You are dealing with degenerate gamblers in most cases. A tale as old as time.

I don't see a time where it is never profitable to them because there will always be an old degen pumping his pay into breaks and new ones getting that first break buzz! With more hits than ever, that dopamine rush gets them early!

I am guilty of this, but have really eased up on my breaking and now get into fiscal trouble buying singles :)[/QUOTE]

A lot of the buzz around group breaks has dissipated since the highs of a few years ago. The "hits" are selling for much less than they were as well. I expect that trend to continue as time goes on, with the number of break participants declining as breaks become a less popular and trendy form of gambling.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;19319294]Gamblers aren’t hobbyists, they’re resellers.[/QUOTE]

Gambling is a hobby -- it's entertainment.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19319273]This thread brings in the “Mike Trout’s future value” and the “I hate breakers” crowd. It’s like it was scientifically engineered to go for 25 pages.[/QUOTE]

That crowd is addicted to these threads.

For products, there are a lot of 1 of 1s each year so it is hard to keep those values up high. Even for cut autos of players who passed away.

Any current player auto, non-low number hits, seem to decrease as time goes by since they will keep having more and more of them released. Granted it could look cool, or be a jersey numbered card, but until there is another new type of card (honestly really can't think of one) that would take the hobby by storm, it would be hard for any auto/relic type card to hold significant value of a player who lived a long life and signed throughout their playing career and after.

Now if Trout stopped signing for 10+ years then his autos would climb up due to supply and demand.

Generally speaking, group breaks would offer the worst house odds for the bettor in any casino.

Group breaks are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy

[QUOTE=theshowandme;19319429][B]Group breaks [/B]are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy[/QUOTE]

Pretty much fill in the blank in this hobby. Catching lightning in a bottle when nobody else is trying to is key.

Trout will sign forever. He's basically signing every product. If you want rarer autos, find guys who don't sign anymore, or can't sign anymore.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319245]For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the [B]Fanatics App[/B]. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE]

It's calling for you. Just give in and buy a few breaks.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;19319413]Generally speaking, group breaks would offer the worst house odds for the bettor in any casino.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=theshowandme;19319429]Group breaks are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy[/QUOTE]

I do want to point out that Houdini's 10 & 100 case player breaks were worth it if you picked the player you wanted and you weren't a nut along with someone else. Prices went nuts in late 2020 if I recall correctly. The Sapphire randoms were really nice as well. Limited checklists and a lot of boxes at once. There are very few people with both the means AND source to attain that many cases. With some players you just never know. I just went through a few and pulled out Evan Carter and Spencer Strider Sapphire 1sts that were from random player breaks. I PSA Gemmed 80% of them.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319245]15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE]

Playing day autographs tend to have more value than retired autos.

As for odds, just like the casino, it depends on what game you play. Spending $1000 on the Angels in a Five Star case break is a lot different than $1000 on a 100 case Bowman Draft Player. In Five Star, you can get nothing, in a Bowman Draft break you are guranteed over 200 chrome(last I checked) and color parallels. If it's an Auto, the avergae was about 17 autos and parallels.

As long as there are people who enjoy a gamble, have money to burn to do so (or addicted and pile on debt), or just prefer it for the "fun" it's not going away.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;19319598]I do want to point out that Houdini's 10 & 100 case player breaks were worth it if you picked the player you wanted and you weren't a nut along with someone else. Prices went nuts in late 2020 if I recall correctly. The Sapphire randoms were really nice as well. Limited checklists and a lot of boxes at once. There are very few people with both the means AND source to attain that many cases. With some players you just never know. I just went through a few and pulled out Evan Carter and Spencer Strider Sapphire 1sts that were from random player breaks. I PSA Gemmed 80% of them.



Playing day autographs tend to have more value than retired autos.

[B]As for odds, just like the casino, it depends on what game you play. Spending $1000 on the Angels in a Five Star case break is a lot different than $1000 on a 100 case Bowman Draft Player. In Five Star, you can get nothing, in a Bowman Draft break you are guranteed over 200 chrome(last I checked) and color parallels. If it's an Auto, the avergae was about 17 autos and parallels[/B].[/QUOTE]

This is a great distinction - I've been watching a bunch of '23 Five Star group breaks where people are getting absolutely murdered financially, I do not get that at all. However, Topps S1/Bowman Chrome type products - I like the group break format to purchase only the teams/players I collect. It's probably not going to give you your investment back, but at least you'll walk away with something you actually want. Breaking full boxes on your own doesn't return your investment the majority of the time either.

I have found that, most group break participants, are indeed overweight.

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;19319644]I have found that, most group break participants, are indeed overweight.[/QUOTE]

Breakers and break participants are not that different either

During the pandemic, we called them "FVD"s, fat vaping degens.

If you have a wsj subscription, here's a great article on how PointsBet keeps their whales hooked on online sports betting.

[url]https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/gambling-addiction-sports-betting-apps-4463cde0[/url]

And as a reminder, Fanatics acquired PointsBets' US operations for $225 million in Oct 2023.

Current autos are ridiculously priced. I'm a vintage guy and I routinley buy Cubs HOF auto at card shows for 5-10 more if it's Banks or Sandberg but still 20 bucks or so for 1st ballot guys. Like last week I got a $15 Andre Dawson ball. Then I thought about getting some modern guys like Rizzo and his cheapest Cubs auto on COMC was $40 lol - I love the guy but I'm not paying $10+ for an auto card let alone $40+ I'll wait however many years and pick em up in a dollar box.

[QUOTE=ironfireman;19320213]Current autos are ridiculously priced. I'm a vintage guy and I routinley buy Cubs HOF auto at card shows for 5-10 more if it's Banks or Sandberg but still 20 bucks or so for 1st ballot guys. Like last week I got a $15 Andre Dawson ball. Then I thought about getting some modern guys like Rizzo and his cheapest Cubs auto on COMC was $40 lol - I love the guy but I'm not paying $10+ for an auto card let alone $40+ I'll wait however many years and pick em up in a dollar box.[/QUOTE]

What's even more interesting is when you go a big show, say the National and those players are there. The huge amount they charge makes no sense. $150+ for an auto of those guys when you can go online and get an authenticated auto for a fraction of the cost. Sure, I get that you get to meet the person, but I'd rather save the money than spend 5 seconds in front of whoever it is before I'm shuffled off by the Tristar staff.

Every year, every breaker product is adding thousands and thousands more star autos to the pool. Resell value will continue to deteriorate as supply increases and your prizes become worth less. We WILL hit some point in the future when the returns simply no longer make sense even for the most degenerate of degenerates.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19320227]Every year, every breaker product is adding thousands and thousands more star autos to the pool. Resell value will continue to deteriorate as supply increases and your prizes become worth less. We WILL hit some point in the future when the returns simply no longer make sense even for the most degenerate of degenerates.[/QUOTE]

I really think you underestimate degenerates…

Breaking isn’t going away. It will adapt and evolve over the years with the market ebbs and flows, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing the day when the last breaker closes shop any time soon… if ever.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19320239]I really think you underestimate degenerates…

Breaking isn’t going away. It will adapt and evolve over the years with the market ebbs and flows, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing the day when the last breaker closes shop any time soon… if ever.[/QUOTE]

It has already happened for several products like heritage, topps flagship, etc.

I know breaking will never go away completely, but if it gets to the point that breaking can’t influence wax prices any more, then we are all back to an even playing field for individual hobbyists who don’t need to rely on breakers to open specific high end products.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19320339]It has already happened for several products like heritage, topps flagship, etc.

I know breaking will never go away completely, but if it gets to the point that breaking can’t influence wax prices any more, then we are all back to an even playing field for individual hobbyists who don’t need to rely on breakers to open specific high end products.[/QUOTE]

Now Fanatics controls wax pricing and breakers. They are giving breakers specific price ranges that they are allowed to charge for breaks on products. But yes, breaking isn't going anywhere now that Fanatics has their own platform which is already the biggest breaking platform. It's a major part of their business

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;19319644]I have found that, most group break participants, are indeed overweight.[/QUOTE]

[IMG]https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-14-2019/7nD-RJ.gif[/IMG]

If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]

It would be available regardless. Only thing is that without breakers, it would be cheaper to purchase the box and probably cheaper to purchase the card

[QUOTE=ironfireman;19320213]Current autos are ridiculously priced. I'm a vintage guy and I routinley buy Cubs HOF auto at card shows for 5-10 more if it's Banks or Sandberg but still 20 bucks or so for 1st ballot guys. Like last week I got a $15 Andre Dawson ball. Then I thought about getting some modern guys like Rizzo and his cheapest Cubs auto on COMC was $40 lol - I love the guy but I'm not paying $10+ for an auto card let alone $40+ I'll wait however many years and pick em up in a dollar box.[/QUOTE]

Facts. Heck, I got a 2001 Topps legends Bob Gibson on card auto on a rc reprint for less than $100

[QUOTE=IronCladLou;19320473]It would be available regardless. Only thing is that without breakers, it would be cheaper to purchase the box and probably cheaper to purchase the card[/QUOTE]

This man knows what he is talking about!

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]

Breakers do nothing for the hobby except increase wax prices for everyone.

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]
Wrong. Anyone who actually collects will tell you rip rates are at an all-time low. It’s harder than ever to find low numbered parallels because they’re all sitting in the wax.

[QUOTE=ironfireman;19320213]Current autos are ridiculously priced. I'm a vintage guy and I routinley buy Cubs HOF auto at card shows for 5-10 more if it's Banks or Sandberg but still 20 bucks or so for 1st ballot guys. Like last week I got a $15 Andre Dawson ball. Then I thought about getting some modern guys like Rizzo and his cheapest Cubs auto on COMC was $40 lol - I love the guy but I'm not paying $10+ for an auto card let alone $40+ I'll wait however many years and pick em up in a dollar box.[/QUOTE]I agree, it's more about what card the auto is on, bca, rc etc than the auto itself.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]

That is quite literally not true. Your post sounds like you just joined the hobby during covid to be honest. It could not be further from the truth.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;19320552]Wrong. Anyone who actually collects will tell you rip rates are at an all-time low. It’s harder than ever to find low numbered parallels because they’re all sitting in the wax.[/QUOTE]


Wax hoarders are the true enemies of collectors.

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]

Lol, this tired old joke of a line/rhetoric meant to protect sellers never worked. Ever.

Fewer breakers = fewer people buying cards = less expensive cards

The Trout will be worth less in the future. Trout auto supply increases and it's a 12th year auto. Kind of a moot point though because people buying into breaks are unlikely to hold that card for 15 days, much less 15 years. They will sell it as soon as possible (or grade and sell) to feed their addiction.

Breaking odds are worse than any regulated casino game. You also have high volatility with breaking so not only is the vig high but wins are rare. Of course you are paying for a chance to get that rare 5 figure card hit.

[QUOTE=PuddleMonkey;19320666]Wax hoarders are the true enemies of collectors.[/QUOTE]

Wax hoarders can sux dong

[QUOTE=Promethius88;19320224]What's even more interesting is when you go a big show, say the National and those players are there. The huge amount they charge makes no sense. $150+ for an auto of those guys when you can go online and get an authenticated auto for a fraction of the cost. Sure, I get that you get to meet the person, but I'd rather save the money than spend 5 seconds in front of whoever it is before I'm shuffled off by the Tristar staff.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I am with you. The extra charge makes sense for custom stuff as well. But when the price discrepancy is so large, than it really is hard to justify. Billy Dee Williams was just at the comicCon here, he was charging $200. I picked up an on card auto for $40. I am sure a certified 8x10 can be had for less that $200.

At all these shows, the signer usually signs a huge stack of 8x10s that will all just go out resale. I wonder what the average price of those are compared to the in person asking fee?


[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19320464]If the people in that break didn't participate that Mike trout auto would not be available for the end collector. People can hate on breaking but there are a lot more nice cards out in the world because of it.[/QUOTE]

also, what everyone else said. :)

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19320227]Every year, every breaker product is adding thousands and thousands more star autos to the pool. Resell value will continue to deteriorate as supply increases and your prizes become worth less. We WILL hit some point in the future when the returns simply no longer make sense even for the most degenerate of degenerates.[/QUOTE]

You know how the Lebron Triple Logoman made headlines? 2.4 million sale. The price of a box was on par with a new car. Didn't matter that the highest of high-end product can and often did yield maybe $500 worth of cards.

Anyway that's what prices have shifted to. If there's a potential to hit a 5- 6- or 7-figure card, it won't matter. And as long as people will pay 5- or 6- or 7-figures for the chase cards, these products need to be filled with autos and parallels of other players to create the chase in the first place.

Prices will collapse on wax for individual products or years, but on release? You can throw out the idea of new, quality products coming back down to the prices you knew and loved.

[QUOTE=JohnnyAppleseed;19320858]You know how the Lebron Triple Logoman made headlines? 2.4 million sale. The price of a box was on par with a new car. Didn't matter that the highest of high-end product can and often did yield maybe $500 worth of cards.

Anyway that's what prices have shifted to. If there's a potential to hit a 5- 6- or 7-figure card, it won't matter. And as long as people will pay 5- or 6- or 7-figures for the chase cards, these products need to be filled with autos and parallels of other players to create the chase in the first place.

Prices will collapse on wax for individual products or years, but on release? You can throw out the idea of new, quality products coming back down to the prices you knew and loved.[/QUOTE]

I wonder how much that Lebron logoman would sell for in today’s market? His exquisite rookie has crashed down in price since the pandemic.

If the prizes do not garner much more than five figures in a product, those wax prices will come down accordingly.

[QUOTE=Scottish Punk;19320840]Yeah, I am with you. The extra charge makes sense for custom stuff as well. But when the price discrepancy is so large, than it really is hard to justify. Billy Dee Williams was just at the comicCon here, he was charging $200. I picked up an on card auto for $40. I am sure a certified 8x10 can be had for less that $200.

At all these shows, the signer usually signs a huge stack of 8x10s that will all just go out resale. I wonder what the average price of those are compared to the in person asking fee?

[/QUOTE]

I have hundreds, if not well over a thousand autographed photos, in all sizes that my father would buy from a show promoter in St. Louis at the end of the shows. They would sign stacks of items for a certain time before their session and that was just all extra money for them.
I can't remember what they charged for autos at the shows back then but I know for certain I can't even get a fraction of that amount for them now.
I mean, how many Bob Feller autos does the hobby need.

The semantics gymnastics people go through to argue the benefits of breaks is incredible

the addiction is real

The real issue is that while the people who buy spots in breaks are relatively insensitive to small changes in spot prices, those changes have a cumulatively huge impact on wax prices.

The difference between paying $5 for a spot and $10 for spot may be inconsequential for a gambler hoping to hit a $500 card, but across 30 teams, that's the difference between a $150 wax box and a $300 wax box.

[QUOTE=mfw13;19321057]The real issue is that while the people who buy spots in breaks are relatively insensitive to small changes in spot prices, those changes have a cumulatively huge impact on wax prices.

The difference between paying $5 for a spot and $10 for spot may be inconsequential for a gambler hoping to hit a $500 card, but across 30 teams, that's the difference between a $150 wax box and a $300 wax box.[/QUOTE]

I can see that effecting secondary wax market but it doesn't effect what Fanatics is charging for MSRP. We're also dealing with inflation throughout the economy. Have been grocery shopping lately or shopping for a car? Or sporting goods or musical instruments? Etc. Everything is up a lot in the past 2-3 years. A lot of consumer products are up 25-50% from what we paid a couple of years ago.

[QUOTE=rms13;19321069]I can see that effecting secondary wax market but it doesn't effect what Fanatics is charging for MSRP. We're also dealing with inflation throughout the economy. Have been grocery shopping lately or shopping for a car? Or sporting goods or musical instruments? Etc. Everything is up a lot in the past 2-3 years. A lot of consumer products are up 25-50% from what we paid a couple of years ago.[/QUOTE]

What Fanatics charges for MSRP doesn't affect the market price, anyway. We've seen that time and time again over the last four years - if it's too cheap, it'll get scalped; if it's too expensive, it sits until it gets discounted, like all three of the 2023 flagship sets.

[QUOTE=tyrith;19321261]What Fanatics charges for MSRP doesn't affect the market price, anyway. We've seen that time and time again over the last four years - if it's too cheap, it'll get scalped; if it's too expensive, it sits until it gets discounted, like all three of the 2023 flagship sets.[/QUOTE]

MSRP is the only thing I care about. I don't buy any boxes or packs anymore becuase it's all a throwing money away. But I wouldn't buy anything above retail price if I was. And now Fanatics pretty much controls break pricing on Fanatics Live so breakers can't drive up boxe prices there.

[QUOTE=rms13;19321069]I can see that effecting secondary wax market but [B]it doesn't effect what Fanatics is charging for MSRP.[/B] We're also dealing with inflation throughout the economy. Have been grocery shopping lately or shopping for a car? Or sporting goods or musical instruments? Etc. Everything is up a lot in the past 2-3 years. A lot of consumer products are up 25-50% from what we paid a couple of years ago.[/QUOTE]

How long have you been in the hobby (sincerely asking, not trying to be a blow-hard)?

Yes, inflation is real and definitely NOT transitory (are you gellin' with J Yellin), but so much of this stuff has cooled off significantly from all-time pandemic pumped highs

Fwiw; I just bought a house with cash and am buying a new(ish) car tomorrow and both items were priced higher during 2022 than what I paid today (assuming same condition)

The price of wax is down like 25-35% from the peak where as the price of singles is down 50-90%

Which is an easy explanation for why many of us stopped opening wax.

I guess my point was that breaking has been an unfortunate reality for years now. And yes... It is driving up wax prices. But it is firmly in place now. Even if breaking were to magically go away tomorrow I don't see the card manufacturers give back all the price increases (driven by breaking) they have enjoyed. My two cents is that if breaking disappeared, we would see less aggregate wax opened and thus less desirable cards on the market. I like to think I'm wrong. But I can't imagine Topps/panini/etc dropping prices, even if breaking vanished.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19321565]The price of wax is down like 25-35% from the peak where as the price of singles is down 50-90%

Which is an easy explanation for why many of us stopped opening wax.[/QUOTE]

This. First time since 2018 I didn't open a flagship box.

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19321588]I guess my point was that breaking has been an unfortunate reality for years now. And yes... It is driving up wax prices. But it is firmly in place now. Even if breaking were to magically go away tomorrow I don't see the card manufacturers give back all the price increases (driven by breaking) they have enjoyed. My two cents is that if breaking disappeared, we would see less aggregate wax opened and thus less desirable cards on the market. I like to think I'm wrong. But I can't imagine Topps/panini/etc dropping prices, even if breaking vanished.[/QUOTE]

Topps has no intention of sitting on pallets and pallets of product that they can’t move. In that situation, prices will come down.

That’s exactly what we want.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19321784]Topps has no intention of sitting on pallets and pallets of product that they can’t move. In that situation, prices will come down.

That’s exactly what we want.[/QUOTE]

I get it. And I know I'm in the minority here. I think they would be more likely to reduce print runs than lose the price increases as a matter of efficiency.

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19321861]I get it. And I know I'm in the minority here. I think they would be more likely to reduce print runs than lose the price increases as a matter of efficiency.[/QUOTE]

I wouldn’t mind that either, at least what they produce would be scarcer and perhaps deserve the higher value.

Most people have the problem that they are proliferating product AND charging a higher price, because, frankly, degenerate break participants don’t care.

slow release?

New Bounties!

[QUOTE=PumpnDumpling;19321479]How long have you been in the hobby (sincerely asking, not trying to be a blow-hard)?

Yes, inflation is real and definitely NOT transitory (are you gellin' with J Yellin), but so much of this stuff has cooled off significantly from all-time pandemic pumped highs

Fwiw; I just bought a house with cash and am buying a new(ish) car tomorrow and both items were priced higher during 2022 than what I paid today (assuming same condition)[/QUOTE]

You are getting good deals paying cash for houses and cars because interest rates are so high. There is no comparison to the card market

[QUOTE=rms13;19321069]I can see that effecting secondary wax market but it doesn't effect what Fanatics is charging for MSRP. We're also dealing with inflation throughout the economy. Have been grocery shopping lately or shopping for a car? Or sporting goods or musical instruments? Etc. Everything is up a lot in the past 2-3 years. A lot of consumer products are up 25-50% from what we paid a couple of years ago.[/QUOTE]

All true.

But most collectors get their wax on the secondary market, not directly from Fanatics. And you can be certain that sites like Steel City, Blowout, and D&A are setting their prices largely based on how much breakers are willing to pay.

And yes we've had significant inflation over the past few years (about 25-30% cumulatively). But the price of a box of flagship is up roughly 50%, despite now have 17% fewer cards (so effectively about 70-80% on a per card basis).

[QUOTE=bsavidge83;19321861]I get it. And I know I'm in the minority here. I think they would be more likely to reduce print runs than lose the price increases as a matter of efficiency.[/QUOTE]

They might also cut production costs to compensate for lower prices. That means lower quality products and shrinkflation.

There's basically no scenario consumers will be better off -- we're screwed.

[QUOTE=mfw13;19322639]All true.

But most collectors get their wax on the secondary market, not directly from Fanatics. And you can be certain that sites like Steel City, Blowout, and D&A are setting their prices largely based on how much breakers are willing to pay.

And yes we've had significant inflation over the past few years (about 25-30% cumulatively). But the price of a box of flagship is up roughly 50%, despite now have 17% fewer cards (so effectively about 70-80% on a per card basis).[/QUOTE]

The distributors know how to squeeze the most money out of card products. What they are able to sell card products for is what Topps/Fanatics will consider market value.

[QUOTE=rms13;19322475]You are getting good deals paying cash for houses and cars because interest rates are so high. There is no comparison to the card market[/QUOTE]

So your LCS doesn't give you a cash discount? If not, i'd find a new LCS

I generally save between 10-15 percent on LCS cash purchases so seems like it may be a reasonable comparison, although that wasn't the first point i was making

If Topps/Fanatics see's prices explode on the secondary they almost always try to capture that on the 2nd go around (it happens with nearly every popular release that skyrockets) which was why i asked if you'd been around long enough to notice it

I feel like one of the main reasons Topps produces products with any semblance of quality is because of group breaks. The group breaking model supports higher prices in the hobby and gives Topps/Fanatics incentive to provide premium-quality cards, which are the "hits" in high-end and mid-tier products.

Without the popularity of group breaks, we'd get dog crap products -- more so than now. There are definitely lower depths to this hobby.

If need be, Fanatics will look to cut costs wherever they can to maintain profit margins, especially when they go public. Their monopoly affords them that ability because they don't have competition.

[QUOTE=fabiani12333;19322879]I feel like one of the main reasons Topps produces products with any semblance of quality is because of group breaks. The group breaking model supports higher prices in the hobby and gives Topps/Fanatics incentive to provide premium-quality cards, which are the "hits" in high-end and mid-tier products.

Without the popularity of group breaks, we'd get dog crap products -- more so than now. There are definitely lower depths to this hobby.

If need be, Fanatics will look to cut costs wherever they can to maintain profit margins, especially when they go public. Their monopoly affords them that ability because they don't have competition.[/QUOTE]

It would be great for people to know what a monopoly is because Fanatics/Topps doesn’t have one here.

But the end result is that we’re just talking about simple cards…despite the fact that this reality may bruise egos…especially for those who rely on selling cards for a living, to gamble or to get by.

There’d be nothing wrong if the hobby looked the same as what it was in 1985 or 1990 with just a few releases, but then most here would be out of work/wouldn’t know how to spend their time. We’re only talking about cards.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;19322914]It would be great for people to know what a monopoly is because Fanatics/Topps doesn’t have one here.

But the end result is that we’re just talking about simple cards…despite the fact that this reality may bruise egos…especially for those who rely on selling cards for a living, to gamble or to get by.

There’d be nothing wrong if the hobby looked the same as what it was in 1985 or 1990 with just a few releases, but then most here would be out of work/wouldn’t know how to spend their time. We’re only talking about cards.[/QUOTE]

I'm not convinced you know what a monopoly is.

Buy graded singles.

Buy bulk base chrome of individual players in large lots from case breaks

It is the only type of prospect gambling I do these days.

Even the base cards go up multiples... flip and keep the graded.

There is room for every budget.

Let others do all of the work.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319245]For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the Fanatics App. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE]

Back to the original question, who knows what the value will be. If Trout gets back into the 40 HR club for a few years then there's bound to be some added value. If he sucks and starts signing a ton then they go down.

The second part part is essentially an unsubstantiated opinion and I'm not even particularly fond of most group breaks. One thing I do like from group breaks is the plethora of minor hits that end up in dollar boxes ready to be scooped up. While I won't get the Trout auto, I can fill up a 400 count box full of lesser hits for the price of a hobby box or two.

[QUOTE=f2tornado;19324859]Back to the original question, who knows what the value will be. If Trout gets back into the 40 HR club for a few years then there's bound to be some added value. If he sucks and starts signing a ton then they go down.

The second part part is essentially an unsubstantiated opinion and I'm not even particularly fond of most group breaks. One thing I do like from group breaks is the plethora of minor hits that end up in dollar boxes ready to be scooped up. While I won't get the Trout auto, I can fill up a 400 count box full of lesser hits for the price of a hobby box or two.[/QUOTE]

The second part is not specific to group breaks. If wax prices were lower because people didn’t do group breaks, those lower end singles would still be on the market from the single box openers who open on their own at a lower price.

You’ll be able to fill your 400 count boxes regardless due to topps overproduction and people wanting to get rid of undesired cards after they open their own boxes.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19324875]The second part is not specific to group breaks...[/QUOTE]

That is also true. There's just a different dynamic from the breaker crowd. They open more stuff in search of the big hit, especially those jumping in random team breaks. Everything else is pretty much junk to them and they often price it accordingly. Ironically, while they inflate the price of wax, they help lower the price of singles for those willing to do a little work on the back end.