Is it over for Jordan Lawlar?
 

The once heralded prospect was optioned down to AAA yesterday.

His career numbers in the majors: 4-50, ba .080, 0 hr, 0 rbi, including an 0-19 total appearance in 2025.

Is his hobby career toast - does a AAAA player really make the cut in today’s extremely competitive and instant gratification environment?

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919584]The once heralded prospect was optioned down to AAA yesterday.

His career numbers in the majors: 4-50, ba .080, 0 hr, 0 rbi, including an 0-19 total appearance in 2025.

Is his hobby career toast - does a AAAA player really make the cut in today’s extremely competitive and instant gratification environment?[/QUOTE]


I’m not gonna write off a 22yr old kid as 4A.
As far as hobby, in my newbie experience every year ya’ll gravitate to the next big thing, and most severely underwhelm.

1st tier hobby potential is prolly toast
He’ll need a massive post hype push to become relevant again. Unfortunately, like many other top guys who initially fail, his cards started off so high it will take a lot of market adjustment(falling prices) to make him worth a buying risk for a rebound. Generally speaking from how these play out in the last 5-8 years there will be a lot of early bag holders propping up auction prices and hitting the hopium pipe rather than truly dumping and letting him go at big losses.
There are too many other productive players at more reasonable prices to pursue to interest me.
The guy who has been blocking him(Perdomo)is dirt cheap, seems to be developing nicely at the plate and is a big part of the team too.

will never hobby make it.

Corbin is on life support and you think this guy will be better?

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919584]The once heralded prospect was optioned down to AAA yesterday.

His career numbers in the majors: 4-50, ba .080, 0 hr, 0 rbi, including an 0-19 total appearance in 2025.

Is his hobby career toast - does a AAAA player really make the cut in today’s extremely competitive and instant gratification environment?[/QUOTE]

I am beginning to think that this up-back-up is much more common than being called -up and staying in the MLB. Many of these young men are stars and are not used to failing. Baseball, as we all know, is to such a large part a mental game. Learning how to deal with a slump, how to shake off an error etc.-comes only with experience and time I believe.

[QUOTE=Galileo77;19919619]I am beginning to think that this up-back-up is much more common than being called -up and staying in the MLB. Many of these young men are stars and are not used to failing. Baseball, as we all know, is to such a large part a mental game. Learning how to deal with a slump, how to shake off an error etc.-comes only with experience and time I believe.[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, the hobby has no patience for time.

Every year there are 30+ new generational first rounders to chase.

anybody that thought a diamondbacks prospect was going to be a hobby star needs to have their head checked

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19919623]anybody that thought a diamondbacks prospect was going to be a hobby star needs to have their head checked[/QUOTE]

By a jumbo jet!

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919625]By a jumbo jet![/QUOTE]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo!!!!!

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;19919609]will never hobby make it.

Corbin is on life support and you think this guy will be better?[/QUOTE]

Great point.

I can’t see anyone else surpassing Corbin on the hobby meter in Arizona and he’s already set on forgotten!

What did his base PSA 10 BCA peak at?

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;19919626]WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo!!!!![/QUOTE]

TBP gets it!

Oh wow. $850-$900. And still selling for over $100.

At least find something more fun to piss your money away on.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;19919636]Oh wow. $850-$900. And still selling for over $100.

At least find something more fun to piss your money away on.[/QUOTE]

That was during the pandemic too.

Not too shabby!

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919645]That was during the pandemic too.

Not too shabby![/QUOTE]
Sold a green auto on release weekend for $1500…i remember laughing at how fast it went at that number

[QUOTE=jbriskin05;19919648]Sold a green auto on release weekend for $1500…i remember laughing at how fast it went at that number[/QUOTE]

Man, raw chrome autos out of breaks must have sold for around $300-$500 in 2021, I believe. At least that was the going rate for the top dawgs.

You people are crazy. Are you seriously telling me that if he comes back up and hits .350 with 45 HR every year for the next 10 years with 60+ WAR by 32 years old that he won't be a hobby superstar?

This site is nuts, and so is this phantom concept of "the hobby" you all refer to.

The fact is that nobody is hobby dead at 22, no matter what their hype was or how bad they were at 21 or 22. They are young enough to put together a career that could absolutely put them in the hobby pantheon.

I don't think Lawler will be that guy, but saying no matter what he does he's already hobby irrelevant is just stupid.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919660]You people are crazy. Are you seriously telling me that if he comes back up and hits .350 with 45 HR every year for the next 10 years with 60+ WAR by 32 years old that he won't be a hobby superstar?

This site is nuts, and so is this phantom concept of "the hobby" you all refer to.

The fact is that nobody is hobby dead at 22, no matter what their hype was or how bad they were at 21 or 22. They are young enough to put together a career that could absolutely put them in the hobby pantheon.

I don't think Lawler will be that guy, but saying no matter what he does he's already hobby irrelevant is just stupid.[/QUOTE]

What are the chances Lawlar actually puts up those gaudy numbers, even since the day he was drafted?

Come on, you’ve been in this game too long to think that way.

19 at bats

lmao

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19919675]19 at bats

lmao[/QUOTE]

50 career at bats.

4 hits total.

0 rbi.

Zero.

$500 raw chrome auto at peak.

It’s over, boxy.

Over.

Sincerely,

Spencer Torkelman

Reid Brignac 2.0

People saying his hobby status is dead are all holding on to Bichette, Vlad, Robert, etc.
i remember for about 5-6 years people kept saying Correa was still young enough to maintain the hype in the hobby. Of course the scandal with Houston was his death nail, but people held out hope he’d fulfill the hobby prophecy bestowed on him.

NO ONE saw Judge coming at 26 and doing what he has done. No one. This site particular writes off any prospect or rookie debuting post 25 as hobby lepers. It’s ludicrous. I agree with another post that said if Lawlar comes back even at 24 and is a stud, he will definitely create hobby frenzy.

Many “big” hobby names have peaks and valleys the past decade. People now are so easy to let go of Bobby Witt Jr. yet hype for Caglione is off the charts and the kid hasn’t seen MLB pitchers yet.
There are lots of minor league HOFers.


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bird>judge

will never forget

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919674]What are the chances Lawlar actually puts up those gaudy numbers, even since the day he was drafted?



Come on, you’ve been in this game too long to think that way.[/QUOTE]Completely irrelevant to my point. But thanks for trying.

If the chance is greater than 0.00%, then I am right.

My comment was specifically directed at those who said it's too late to become a superstar no matter what he does.

What were the chances Aaron Judge would do it when he was 22?

Like I said (if you had bothered to read), I don't think Lawler is that guy. But to say no matter what he does he will be hobby irrelevant is stupid.

[QUOTE=jhssketchcards;19919691]People saying his hobby status is dead are all holding on to Bichette, Vlad, Robert, etc.
i remember for about 5-6 years people kept saying Correa was still young enough to maintain the hype in the hobby. Of course the scandal with Houston was his death nail, but people held out hope he’d fulfill the hobby prophecy bestowed on him.

NO ONE saw Judge coming at 26 and doing what he has done. No one. This site particular writes off any prospect or rookie debuting post 25 as hobby lepers. It’s ludicrous. I agree with another post that said if Lawlar comes back even at 24 and is a stud, he will definitely create hobby frenzy.

Many “big” hobby names have peaks and valleys the past decade. People now are so easy to let go of Bobby Witt Jr. yet hype for Caglione is off the charts and the kid hasn’t seen MLB pitchers yet.
There are lots of minor league HOFers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

The big difference between the performance of judge and Lawlar cards is that judge started out as a $10 auto and Lawlar was a $400 auto.

Being hobby dead essentially means never seeing your initial hyped peak prices again.

Sure, Lawlar could be serviceable. Even sort of good, but never $400 chrome auto good again, ever.

That’s what I mean by hobby dead.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919697]Completely irrelevant to my point. But thanks for trying.

If the chance is greater than 0.00%, then I am right.

My comment was specifically directed at those who said it's too late to become a superstar no matter what he does.

What were the chances Aaron Judge would do it when he was 22?

Like I said (if you had bothered to read), I don't think Lawler is that guy. But to say no matter what he does he will be hobby irrelevant is stupid.[/QUOTE]

1-2 outliers out of 100 doesn’t mean it could likely happen to anyone.

It’s a rare occurrence and at $400 a chrome auto at initial buy in, you will lose 98% of the time.

It’s over, unless you have breaker boi logic that thinks “there’s always a chance……”

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919697]If the chance is greater than 0.00%, then I am right.[/QUOTE]
This might be the best thing you’ve ever posted.

I remember when chrome autos were like $10

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919700]



Being hobby dead essentially means never seeing your initial hyped peak prices again.







That’s what we mean by hobby dead.[/QUOTE]

I don't know who "we" is, but that is not what hobby dead means.

Regardless, $400 first bowman auto is nothing if he turns into a hall of famer.

But again, I never once said it was "likely." Hobby dead means it's impossible. But now that I know you are misusing the term, carry on.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;19919636]Oh wow. $850-$900. And still selling for over $100.

At least find something more fun to piss your money away on.[/QUOTE]

If your guy Wander can still sell for $100, Lawlar isn't an exception.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919753]I don't know who "we" is, but that is not what hobby dead means.

Regardless, $400 first bowman auto is nothing if he turns into a hall of famer.

But again, I never once said it was "likely." Hobby dead means it's impossible. But now that I know you are misusing the term, carry on.[/QUOTE]

Hobby dead means declining in significance and importance.

Perhaps your attorney textbooks suggest a different definition?

[QUOTE=jhssketchcards;19919691]People saying his hobby status is dead are all holding on to Bichette, Vlad, Robert, etc.
i remember for about 5-6 years people kept saying Correa was still young enough to maintain the hype in the hobby. Of course the scandal with Houston was his death nail, but people held out hope he’d fulfill the hobby prophecy bestowed on him.

[B]NO ONE saw Judge coming at 26 [/B]and doing what he has done. No one. This site particular writes off any prospect or rookie debuting post 25 as hobby lepers. It’s ludicrous. I agree with another post that said if Lawlar comes back even at 24 and is a stud, he will definitely create hobby frenzy.

Many “big” hobby names have peaks and valleys the past decade. People now are so easy to let go of Bobby Witt Jr. yet hype for Caglione is off the charts and the kid hasn’t seen MLB pitchers yet.
There are lots of minor league HOFers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

A lot of people saw Judge coming that year. He was amazing in his age 25 season.

[QUOTE=Triple B;19919808]If [B]your guy[/B] Wander can still sell for $100, Lawlar isn't an exception.[/QUOTE]
:confused:

[QUOTE=Triple B;19919808]If your guy Wander can still sell for $100, Lawlar isn't an exception.[/QUOTE]

I was told Wander is not hobby dead.

Turn him into glue!

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919816]Hobby dead means declining in significance and importance.



Perhaps your attorney textbooks suggest a different definition?[/QUOTE]LOL

Dead means dead. Incapable of revival.

I guess your dictionary made up some new definition of dead to recover from a statement I proved incorrect. :rollseyes:

I think it's safe to say you are probably the only person who defines "hobby dead" as in decline.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919872]LOL

Dead means dead. Incapable of revival.

I guess your dictionary made up some new definition of dead to recover from a statement I proved incorrect. :rollseyes:

I think it's safe to say you are probably the only person who defines "hobby dead" as in decline.[/QUOTE]

When I address you specifically, I’ll use the term as meaning deceased players so that you’ll understand.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919882]When I address you specifically, I’ll use the term as meaning deceased players so that you’ll understand.[/QUOTE]Serious question. Do you truly think other people use the term hobby dead to mean in decline, rather than meaning their hobby cannot recover?

You can try to make this about me. But there is no way I'm in the minority in understanding what 'hobby dead" means.

Today, kids, we learned Austin Hendricks is not hobby dead.

He is, in fact, still breathing and has a pulse.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919893]Serious question. Do you truly think other people use the term hobby dead to mean in decline, rather than meaning their hobby cannot recover?[/QUOTE]

In colloquial terms, yes, hobby dead means no longer relevant with no realistic chance of recovering.

It doesn’t mean they are literally dead.

When I say it’s over, what do you think I mean?

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919896]In colloquial terms, yes, hobby dead means no longer relevant with no realistic chance of recovering.

It doesn’t mean they are literally dead.

When I say it’s over, what do you think I mean?[/QUOTE]LOL

I was the one saying it meant no longer relevant with no chance of recovering. YOU were claiming it didn't mean that, but just meant "declining." :doh:

Classic cardbro.

I never once insinuated it meant physically dead. You either can't read, or are trolling right now.

Name a better duo than “Ohio Lawyer” and arguing nonsensical semantics. Dude legit thinks he is the smartest person on this forum.

Yes, there is a theoretical possibility that Lawlar somehow becomes the next Judge and gets back to $400 per chrome auto. Congrats.

Tip: good lawyers don’t need to remind everyone at all times that they are a lawyer


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[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919942]LOL

I was the one saying it meant no longer relevant with no chance of recovering. YOU were claiming it didn't mean that, but just meant "declining." :doh:

Classic cardbro.

I never once insinuated it meant physically dead. You either can't read, or are trolling right now.[/QUOTE]

Should anyone really take you seriously anymore?

Or do I have to convince everyone here that Austin Kendrick is really not hobby dead because he has a non-0.00% chance of making it to the hall of fame?

I was told that you need to go to the vintage section to discuss “hobby ded” playerz.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919674]What are the chances Lawlar actually puts up those gaudy numbers, even since the day he was drafted?

Come on, you’ve been in this game too long to think that way.[/QUOTE]

Go back and look at how bad Mike Trout was his first month in the majors.....7-43 with a .492 OPS.....

Jackson Holliday was horrible last year and has a 117 OPS+ this year.

Bobby Witt Jr. had a .558 OPS his first month in the majors (77 PA)....now he's a superstar.

Aaron Judge was 15-84 (.608 OPS) his first year in the majors.

Miguel Cabrera was 6-38 his first month in the majors....

[B]50 AB is too small of a sample size to reach ANY conclusions about how good Lawlar will be....[/B]

[QUOTE=mfw13;19919984]Go back and look at how bad Mike Trout was his first month in the majors.....7-43 with a .492 OPS.....

Jackson Holliday was horrible last year and has a 117 OPS+ this year.

Bobby Witt Jr. had a .558 OPS his first month in the majors (77 PA)....now he's a superstar.

Miguel Cabrera was 6-38 his first month in the majors....

[B]50 AB is too small of a sample size to reach ANY conclusions about how good Lawlar will be....[/B][/QUOTE]

As I stated before, these are 1-2 out of 100 exceptions.

98 out of 100 of players who start this way, especially those who command $400 for base chrome autos at release, never recover. IE they can be considered hobby dead.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919986]As I stated before, these are 1-2 out of 100 exceptions.



98 out of 100 of players who start this way, especially those who command $400 for base chrome autos at release, never recover. IE they can be considered hobby dead.[/QUOTE]98% of all prospects fail. That doesn't really help your argument.

[QUOTE=Giancarlo27;19919955]Name a better duo than “Ohio Lawyer” and arguing nonsensical semantics. Dude legit thinks he is the smartest person on this forum.

Yes, there is a theoretical possibility that Lawlar somehow becomes the next Judge and gets back to $400 per chrome auto. Congrats.

Tip: good lawyers don’t need to remind everyone at all times that they are a lawyer


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]It's only you and your troll buddies who constantly talk about my job. I literally never talk about it. I had this username in the card community for over 20 years, and I regret using it here, before I realized they refuse to let you change it. I only used it here because people knew me by that name and I wanted the continuity. If I could change it I would, so small minded trolls like you wouldn't have anything else to talk about when you have no valid point to argue about.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920004]98% of all prospects fail. That doesn't really help your argument.[/QUOTE]

Who’s arguing?

I’m not an attorney and I’m glad I’m not one.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919966]Should anyone really take you seriously anymore?



Or do I have to convince everyone here that Austin Kendrick is really not hobby dead because he has a non-0.00% chance of making it to the hall of fame?[/QUOTE]At least get his name right. :doh:

But no one is talking about Austin Hendrick but you. And if you think comparing Lawler, a legit major league prospect, who has excelled in the minors and made the majors, is the same as a kid drafted at 18 but struggled in low A from day 1, and has never shown anything in the minors, than that explains a lot about why you struggle with basic concepts.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19920008]Who’s arguing?

I’m not an attorney and I’m glad I’m not one.[/QUOTE]Yes, because only attorneys argue. :rollseyes:

You and your butt buddies need a new schtick. It's uninspired.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920013]At least get his name right. :doh:

But no one is talking about Austin Hendrick but you. And if you think comparing Lawler, a legit major league prospect, who has excelled in the minors and made the majors, is the same as a kid drafted at 18 but struggled in low A from day 1, and has never shown anything in the minors, than that explains a lot about why you struggle with basic concepts.[/QUOTE]

It doesn’t matter what his name is.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920006]It's only you and your troll buddies who constantly talk about my job. I literally never talk about it. I had this username in the card community for over 20 years, and I regret using it here, before I realized they refuse to let you change it. I only used it here because people knew me by that name and I wanted the continuity. If I could change it I would, so small minded trolls like you wouldn't have anything else to talk about when you have no valid point to argue about.[/QUOTE]


You do realize you only have “trolls” because you love to argue with everyone over pedantic crap like this argument?

And tit’s not just your name. I went to law school with like 100 people just like you lol


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[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920017]Yes, because only attorneys argue. :rollseyes:

You and your [B]butt buddies[/B] need a new schtick. It's uninspired.[/QUOTE]
Haven’t heard that one in 20 years.

[QUOTE=Giancarlo27;19920023]You do realize you only have “trolls” because you love to argue with everyone over pedantic crap like this argument?

And tit’s not just your name. I went to law school with like 100 people just like you lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]Why do you insist on talking about going to law school? It's not a good look.

But I'm not surprised, because arrogant trolls like you who feel the need to troll other people just because you don't like how they discuss things with others are pretty common among lawyers I work with. If you have something to add to the discussion, by all means, say it. But if all you want to do is jump into the discussion to troll someone you don't like, you can take a hike.

By the way, cardbro made this pedantic, not me. He wanted to play games changing the normal defintion of "hobby dead" when people pointed out how his small sample size fallacy was a bit premature.

But trolls tend to overlook those details if it doesn't fit their narrative.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920030]Why do you insist on talking about going to law school? It's not a good look.

But I'm not surprised, because arrogant trolls like you who feel the need to troll other people just because you don't like how they discuss things with others are pretty common among lawyers I work with. If you have something to add to the discussion, by all means, say it. But if all you want to do is jump into the discussion to troll someone you don't like, you can take a hike.

By the way, cardbro made this pedantic, not me. He wanted to play games changing the normal defintion of "hobby dead" when people pointed out how his small sample size fallacy was a bit premature.

But trolls tend to overlook those details if it doesn't fit their narrative.[/QUOTE]


Ok I’ll add my two cents. Lawlar has shown nothing suggesting he is an MLB quality player yet. Yes you are correct that if he hits .350 with 50 homers next year, his cards will move. What point that proves, or how it’s relevant to the discussion, besides proving that no one is officially “hobby dead” until they are playing in Korea or deceased, I do not know. Congrats on derailing another thread with a pointless semantic argument, maybe now we can go back to discussing Lawlar?


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[QUOTE=Giancarlo27;19920047]Ok I’ll add my two cents. Lawlar has shown nothing suggesting he is an MLB quality player yet. Yes you are correct that if he hits .350 with 50 homers next year, his cards will move. What point that proves, or how it’s relevant to the discussion, besides proving that no one is officially “hobby dead” until they are playing in Korea or deceased, I do not know. Congrats on derailing another thread with a pointless semantic argument, maybe now we can go back to discussing Lawlar?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]You derailed the thread more than me. You admittedly came in for no other reason than to troll me.

My argument wasn't semantics. And my position doesn't result in a player needing to be in Korea before they're hobby dead. My argument is that no top 10 prospect who is stil 22 with only a few dozen major league at bats is hobby dead. That's not semantics. It common sense. But keep going with the misstatement of my argument to keep up your false narrative that I always argue semantics. What else would you have to post about if you didn't?

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19920049]My argument wasn't semantics.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919697]If the chance is greater than 0.00%, then I am right.[/QUOTE]
:cry:

Pretty sure he was hobby dead when he drafted by the Diamondbacks.

98% of all sports cards produced become hobby dead with time.

If you believe in Lawlar, how low do you let prices go before buying the dip?

id rather waste that money on Druw Jones

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19920021]It doesn’t matter what his name is.[/QUOTE]

I read this in The Rock's voice

[QUOTE=ThoseBackPages;19920082]id rather waste that money on Druw Jones[/QUOTE]
Forgot about him. What a disaster for anyone who bought.

[QUOTE=Chris P;19920094]I read this in The Rock's voice[/QUOTE]

Chris P gets it!

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919700]The big difference between the performance of judge and Lawlar cards is that judge started out as a $10 auto and Lawlar was a $400 auto.

Being hobby dead essentially means never seeing your initial hyped peak prices again.

Sure, Lawlar could be serviceable. Even sort of good, but never $400 chrome auto good again, ever.

That’s what I mean by hobby dead.[/QUOTE]

A couple of things I see over and over that I disagree with;

1) The level of talent required to be hobby good is much lower than where most people put it. It is in fact more than just five guys.

2) You can't compare prices to their 2021 peak. The number of players who will reach those heights ever again is limited. The number who will actually finish above those heights is pretty much Judge.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919753]

Regardless, $400 first bowman auto is nothing if he turns into a hall of famer.

[/QUOTE]

As of mid October the median active player that had met or is a shoe-in to meet the HOF standard laid out by Silent George was ~$400. The average was a little higher due to the big guys impacting the small sample, but if Lawlar became an HOFer he'd be roughly 50/50 to be $400, give or take the market.

[QUOTE=rwperu34;19920150]A couple of things I see over and over that I disagree with;

1) The level of talent required to be hobby good is much lower than where most people put it. It is in fact more than just five guys.

2) You can't compare prices to their 2021 peak. The number of players who will reach those heights ever again is limited. The number who will actually finish above those heights is pretty much Judge.



As of mid October the median active player that had met or is a shoe-in to meet the HOF standard laid out by Silent George was ~$400. The average was a little higher due to the big guys impacting the small sample, but if Lawlar became an HOFer he'd be roughly 50/50 to be $400, give or take the market.[/QUOTE]

Good points.

My main purpose was to point out the discrepancy in prices at which people are willing to gamble on prospects versus 10-20 years ago even adjusted for inflation. Breaking and reckless speculation has brought those prices to a new level.

The number of prospects who become hobby dead far outnumber those who become hobby good, however. Thus, the risks and potential losses are higher.

Interesting fact is that the first player to be elected to the hall of fame who has a bowman chrome first year auto is Joe Mauer. His chrome auto can easily be found for less than $400. It has been available for that price throughout the entirety of his career, for the most part.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19919986]As I stated before, these are 1-2 out of 100 exceptions.[/QUOTE]

Except that simple is not true.....most players struggle when they are first called up.....players who mash from their first AB in the majors are the exception, rather than the rule.

Roberto Clemente still had a career OPS+ of under 100 at the end of his [B]5th[/B] major league season.

Mike Schmidt had a .198 BA and a 89 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season (483 PA).

George Brett started his career 5-40 and had a 87 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season.

[B]You can't tell ANYTHING from a 50 AB sample size....[/B]

It's that simple....

[QUOTE=mfw13;19920331]Except that simple is not true.....most players struggle when they are first called up.....players who mash from their first AB in the majors are the exception, rather than the rule.

Roberto Clemente still had a career OPS+ of under 100 at the end of his [B]5th[/B] major league season.

Mike Schmidt had a .198 BA and a 89 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season (483 PA).

George Brett started his career 5-40 and had a 87 OPS+ at the end of his first full MLB season.

[B]You can't tell ANYTHING from a 50 AB sample size....[/B]

It's that simple....[/QUOTE]

I understand your point. You absolutely can’t judge a player’s future performance based on 50 random at bats, especially your first 50 at bats.

My point is, to be hobby good and to sustain your initial hype inflated prices, you for the most part must start off hot to maintain. Players today have very short hobby leashes and speculators have too many distractions.

You can end up baseball solid in the future but your cards will be left far behind and you won’t make any money off your initial purchases, as the buy in prices have set you up to fail.

The biggest question for Lawlar speculators now is - do you want to cut ties now and minimize your losses, or are you going to risk losing everything with the chance he may become a solid everyday player or utility player and still lose a good amount from that $400 you paid initially?

Those who paid $400 for Joe Mauer as an investment can buy his cards for $200 today, YET he has already been elected to the HOF.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19920351]The biggest question for Lawlar speculators now is - do you want to cut ties now and minimize your losses, or are you going to risk losing everything with the chance he may become a solid everyday player or utility player and still lose a good amount from that $400 you paid initially?

[B]Those who paid $400 for Joe Mauer as an investment can buy his cards for $200 today, YET he has already been elected to the HOF.[/QUOTE][/B]

Actually joe mauer chrome autos have gone up a lot since his hof announcement

you could have made a ton of money on his chrome autos

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19920315]Good points.



My main purpose was to point out the discrepancy in prices at which people are willing to gamble on prospects versus 10-20 years ago even adjusted for inflation. Breaking and reckless speculation has brought those prices to a new level.



The number of prospects who become hobby dead far outnumber those who become hobby good, however. Thus, the risks and potential losses are higher.



Interesting fact is that the first player to be elected to the hall of fame who has a bowman chrome first year auto is Joe Mauer. His chrome auto can easily be found for less than $400. It has been available for that price throughout the entirety of his career, for the most part.[/QUOTE]

While I get your point, the card landscape (as well as the economic landscape) is just so different today than it was then, that you can't really extrapolate much valuable information by trying to compare the amounts people are willing to gamble on prospects in each era. Not to mention, the number of adult collectors (not investors) with a lot of money who are currently buying cards for their collections has exploded with the huge boom of 80s/80s kids coming into their prime earning years. The junk wax era popularity has come full circle and that massive market now has a lot of money and passion for collecting. Consequently, when they compete for cards, prices will explode. So what was a lot for a rookie card 20 years ago, is peanuts today due to basic supply and demand in a very different market. You don't have to like it, but there is far more nuance to high prospect prices than just prospectors looking to make a buck.

[QUOTE=hermanotarjeta;19920340]I understand your point. You absolutely can’t judge a player’s future performance based on 50 random at bats, especially your first 50 at bats.

My point is, to be hobby good and to sustain your initial hype inflated prices, you for the most part must start off hot to maintain. Players today have very short hobby leashes and speculators have too many distractions.

You can end up baseball solid in the future but your cards will be left far behind and you won’t make any money off your initial purchases, as the buy in prices have set you up to fail.[/QUOTE]

True.

But did Lawlar ever really have hype-inflated prices?

His RC 2024 Heritage Black Refractors peaked at about $70.....that's a fraction of what hyped rookie Black Refractors go for......Merrill, Chourio, and Skenes all hit $400-500 this spring.....this year James Wood is at around $200-250.

[QUOTE=mfw13;19920419]True.

But did Lawlar ever really have hype-inflated prices?

His RC 2024 Heritage Black Refractors peaked at about $70.....that's a fraction of what hyped rookie Black Refractors go for......Merrill, Chourio, and Skenes all hit $400-500 this spring.....this year James Wood is at around $200-250.[/QUOTE]

I’d say $400 for his bowman chrome first auto was pretty hyped - not many achieve that level, even for pandemic standards.

He’s been injured multiple times since his 2024 rookie card logo issues, so there’s a reason why his 2024 cards have been tempered in price.

Many have already jumped ship. After this most recent demotion, the hull has been cracked pretty severely at this point in time.

We all know a prospect’s shelf life is quite limited.

It will be a steep uphill battle to achieve hobby relevance again.

[QUOTE=OhioLawyerF5;19919660]You people are crazy. Are you seriously telling me that if he comes back up and hits .350 with 45 HR every year for the next 10 years with 60+ WAR by 32 years old that he won't be a hobby superstar?

This site is nuts, and so is this phantom concept of "the hobby" you all refer to.

The fact is that nobody is hobby dead at 22, no matter what their hype was or how bad they were at 21 or 22. They are young enough to put together a career that could absolutely put them in the hobby pantheon.

I don't think Lawler will be that guy, but saying no matter what he does he's already hobby irrelevant is just stupid.[/QUOTE]


Ruben Sierra…..