Who's the next 100 WAR guy?
 

Pujols was the last guy to do it. Until a few years ago Trout was a shoe in to exceed 100 career fWAR, but here he sits at 86.5 in his age 33 season with a whopping .5 WAR collected this year. Does Trout make it or does his body not let him?

If not Mike, who? Mookie is 32 with 72.8, collecting 2.5 WAR so far this year. Seems to be a long shot but possible, as we may be seeing Betts get old before our eyes. Or maybe it was just that crazy stomach bug at the beginning of the season and he throws a couple more 8 WAR seasons at us in quick succession, making his case seem much more winnable.

If not Mike or Mookie, who? Machado? Nope. Judge? 58.4 at age 33. Maybe Aaron just rips 4 more 10 WAR seasons and makes us bow down to his supreme greatness. Ramirez, Harper, Lindor? Nope nope nope.

Could Shohei actually do it? 8 more seasons of 8 WAR a year get him close. Shohei is my dude, but thats asking a heck of a lot.

The answer very well might've been Juan Soto if he could play defense. Sorry Juanie, your batters eye just isn't enough man.

Acuna, Tucker, Tatis? I just dont see it for any of them, much less Vlad or Yordan.

Julio, Bobby, Gunnar? Lots of crazy projection needed to get any of these baby boys to 100 but all 3 play at a premium defensive position and can hit. They have the tools, but can one of them do it? Judging by the names of really good baseball players I've already rattled off, probably not.

Best odds based on my gut:

Trout
Judge
Shohei

Trout just needs 3 or 4 years of decent production to get there. He's so close but so far. Superheroes Judge and Shohei can leap over 8-10 WAR seasons in a single bound, they just need to do it consistently until they are old. But they ARE superheroes so don't count them out.

Thoughts, BO?[IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250702/1b7f4d906f295d355a1120f7bf3fa23f.jpg[/IMG]

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Agree with your assessment. I'd say maybe Witt just based on his floor for defense and how he should keep progressing with the bat, but I wouldn't bet on anyone. Judge and Ohtani feel like they do have a shot based on work ethic and level-headedness. Cool topic

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Hoping Mookie gets there, but that’ll depend on how his 30s go.

Skenes could def do it if he stays healthy, assume he'll miss at least 1 season for TJ at some point but a few 8-9 WAR seaons before he turns 25 will add up pretty quickly

Judge! He will get it along with the highest WAR season ever.

I don’t believe Soto has even hit his prime yet. I’d put money on him.


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Soto is the correct answer. Look at the names on the 100+ WAR list and then lie to me, telling me defense actually matters. Plenty of the names on that list were butchers on defense.

Funny I was just thinking about this since someone mentioned Frank Robinson in the Soto thread. He seems like the most logical choice.

Juan Soto unless he gets bored with baseball

Cal Raleigh or Lazaro Montes

Bobby Witt Jr possibly

Right now, the likely bet is Mookie.

Plays shortstop, hopefully next year won't have rare gastro issues that have him drop 20LBs to start the year.

Judge is 33 and not likely to continue mashing the way that he has. People also tend to forget that big bodies don't age well.

If we get a shortened season in 2027, I think that's really going to hurt the guys already in their 30's. Soto might have the best chance of anybody currently playing.

[QUOTE=Twalk1975;19949499]If we get a shortened season in 2027, I think that's really going to hurt the guys already in their 30's. Soto might have the best chance of anybody currently playing.[/QUOTE]This will devastate baseball and especially a lot of resumes. Most of these folks will have covid and a strike shortened season. Brutal

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Every RC in the 2026 Series One $400 jumbos will achieve this.

We may see expansion teams at some point. I'm guessing that might also help the upper tier of the younger guys?

Emil Morales.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;19949465]Juan Soto unless he gets bored with baseball[/QUOTE]

If he averages 4 WAR the entire contract he will be right around 100, but I think he really needs a few more 8 WAR seasons as those last years he could be negative like Miggy.

J-Rod.

[QUOTE=JRX;19949564]If he averages 4 WAR the entire contract he will be right around 100, but I think he really needs a few more 8 WAR seasons as those last years he could be negative like Miggy.[/QUOTE]

It would be difficult to bet against him with where he is at being only 26. I'd have said Acuna too but he seems to always be injured.

[QUOTE=Biohazarddfl;19949515]This will devastate baseball and especially a lot of resumes. Most of these folks will have covid and a strike shortened season. Brutal

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What will a lockout/strike do to baseball card values? We haven't had a significant work stoppage since the '94 strike.

[QUOTE=BoSoxFan1999;19949591]What will a lockout/strike do to baseball card values? We haven't had a significant work stoppage since the '94 strike.[/QUOTE]

It’s another roadblock for guys trying to reach major milestones. A lot of them will have already lost games due to the covid stoppage. Freeman and Altuve going for 3,000 hits come to mind. Giancarlo will need every at-bat possible to try and drag his corpse to 500 HRs. There are others too. Missing out on those milestones could impact card values.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;19949587]It would be difficult to bet against him with where he is at being only 26. I'd have said Acuna too but he seems to always be injured.[/QUOTE]

Actually it would be easy since getting to 100 WAR is really really hard. He has to basically never drop off oh and never get hurt.

The excuse with a short COVID season and a possible short season due to strike is crazy. How many of those guys had to enlist in actual WAR and still put up those numbers (some in the prime of their career). The biggest thing to is just accumulating years of playing.

Yes once expansion occurs it will lift a lot of these guys WARs up since you will have 2 AAA teams up in the majors for some time until the talent can adjust to that level.

My guess is Soto or Acuna but I doubt a pitcher in the modern era will get it unless they go into their 40s and still effective.

[QUOTE=JRX;19949601]Actually it would be easy since getting to 100 WAR is really really hard. He has to basically never drop off oh and never get hurt.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Raleigh504;19949603]The excuse with a short COVID season and a possible short season due to strike is crazy. How many of those guys had to enlist in actual WAR and still put up those numbers (some in the prime of their career). The biggest thing to is just accumulating years of playing.

Yes once expansion occurs it will lift a lot of these guys WARs up since you will have 2 AAA teams up in the majors for some time until the talent can adjust to that level.

My guess is Soto or Acuna but I doubt a pitcher in the modern era will get it unless they go into their 40s and still effective.[/QUOTE]

In general, it will be extremely hard for any modern player to accumulate 100+ WAR since it was just inherently easier for superstars of the early 1900’s to distance themselves from the common everyday player back then.

From Wikipedia:

[QUOTE]Bill James states that there is a bias favoring players from earlier eras because there was greater variance in skill levels at the time, so "the best players were further from the average than they are now".[2] That is, in modern baseball, it is more difficult for a player to exceed the abilities of his peers than it was in the 1800s and the dead-ball and live-ball eras of the 1900s.[/QUOTE]

Also depends on which War you're using. Fangraphs has only 20 batters over 100 last 2 were Bonds and Arod so use steroids I guess.

As said above, I think that less players will achieve 100 WAR (of any type) because they won’t play as long as Musial, Mays, Cobb, etc.

They make enough money now to retire relatively early. Why slog through rough seasons in your late-30s and early-40s if you and your next 2 generations are set for life? Some will - but not as many as before

[QUOTE=ScooterD;19949636]As said above, I think that less players will achieve 100 WAR (of any type) because they won’t play as long as Musial, Mays, Cobb, etc.

They make enough money now to retire relatively early. Why slog through rough seasons in your late-30s and early-40s if you and your next 2 generations are set for life? Some will - but not as many as before[/QUOTE]

Certainly seeing some of that in the NFL. Baseball is less hard on past prime aging player bodies, plus there's usually a team that will provide a DH role is the player isn't too greedy. This allows for some late career stat compiling that is more difficult to accomplish in the NFL.

I'd think Trout can limp (pun maybe intended) to 100. Mookie Betts has a legit shot, especially if this season is an anomaly and not the start of the inevitable slide. Judge has more ground to make up yet seems just as likely to get there as anyone.

For the younger dudes, maybe Acuna and Witt.

Who's the next 100 WAR guy?
 

Acuna is on his second knee surgery isn’t he? I’d count him out.

The one who is going to do it will not be doing it for the love of the money, but for the game.

Like Tom Brady did. He didn’t need any of the money, but he loved the game and competition. This is where your next 100 WAR player is coming from. Someone who loves the game, it’s history, and is committed to competing.


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100 WAR over a 20 year career is avg 5 WAR a year every year. People seem to have this skewed perception because of Judge and Ohtani that 10 WAR seasons happen frequently, they don't. Soto has a shot because he's been signed for so long, past age 40, but he's not likely to be someone to put up a 10 WAR season given his defense unless he really goes full Ted Williams mode.

Jac Caglione

And for everyone just assuming Soto will continue hitting until he's 40, Frank Thomas only put up 17.9 fwar after age 30. While bigger, he was also a guy with a really great batters eye etc.

[QUOTE=JRX;19949756]And for everyone just assuming Soto will continue hitting until he's 40, Frank Thomas only put up 17.9 fwar after age 30. While bigger, he was also a guy with a really great batters eye etc.[/QUOTE]

Soto will

thanks for playing

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19949770]Soto will

thanks for playing[/QUOTE]

Pujols finished at 89.9fwar, Miggy 68.8. Soto has a long way to go with nothing ever going wrong.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19949752]Jac Caglione[/QUOTE]

Let's say he plays another 15 years and maintains his current level of production, he'll fall about 190 WAR short of 100.

[QUOTE=LittleJimmies;19949789]Let's say he plays another 15 years and maintains his current level of production, he'll fall about 190 WAR short of 100.[/QUOTE]Hahaha, ouch. I'm rooting for Jac, but that was funny and we don't have a "like" button.

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Modern players just can’t realistically reach 100 WAR. Look what Rickey and Albert had to do to get there: All Time SB King and 700+ HRs!

[QUOTE=LittleJimmies;19949789]Let's say he plays another 15 years and maintains his current level of production, he'll fall about 190 WAR short of 100.[/QUOTE]

Frozenfractor WAR.

OP, did you use a cut off of 100 bWAR for any specific reason? Is there any correlation between 100 bWAR and hobby appeal?

It seems to me that accumulating career statistics for today's players is much harder than in the past. So does it really matter from a hobby perspective if any current player reaches 100 bWAR? I mean even if Soto does achieve this feat but does not win any MVP's will it really change his hobby status?

I think the hobby has spoken. Ohtani and Judge are the hobby kings right now because their peak performance is just so much better than everyone else. And the MVP awards are the result. Both seem to have a lot more peak left in their careers and probably more MVP awards will result. My guess is both won't make it to 100 bWAR, but will have more hobby appeal than many on the list.

[QUOTE=Biohazarddfl;19949790]Hahaha, ouch. I'm rooting for Jac, but that was funny and we don't have a "like" button.

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The joke went over his head I think

[QUOTE=seanrs1;19949813]OP, did you use a cut off of 100 bWAR for any specific reason? Is there any correlation between 100 bWAR and hobby appeal?



It seems to me that accumulating career statistics for today's players is much harder than in the past. So does it really matter from a hobby perspective if any current player reaches 100 bWAR? I mean even if Soto does achieve this feat but does not win any MVP's will it really change his hobby status?



I think the hobby has spoken. Ohtani and Judge are the hobby kings right now because their peak performance is just so much better than everyone else. And the MVP awards are the result. Both seem to have a lot more peak left in their careers and probably more MVP awards will result. My guess is both won't make it to 100 bWAR, but will have more hobby appeal than many on the list.[/QUOTE]I don't expect Soto to ever win an MVP, and I'm still a buyer. He will have incredible offensive career production and always be playing meaningful games.

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[QUOTE=Bosoxfan5990;19949800]Frozenfractor WAR.[/QUOTE]

Haha! Now that is some great ultra-niche hobby comedy right there!

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19949814]The joke went over his head I think[/QUOTE]

No, no it didn't.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19949799]Modern players just can’t realistically reach 100 WAR. Look what Rickey and Albert had to do to get there: All Time SB King and 700+ HRs![/QUOTE]

Rickey and Albert seem to show that if you aren't sitting at (or close to) 100 WAR by age 36...you probably aren't getting over that hump your twilight years.

And just think, had Pujols retired 6 years sooner (at the age of 36)...he'd have more WAR.

It's not about longevity...it's about prime years accumulation.

Jac Caglianone just needs 100.9 more WAR to reach 100 WAR.

He's a shoe in.

[QUOTE=seanrs1;19949813]OP, did you use a cut off of 100 bWAR for any specific reason? Is there any correlation between 100 bWAR and hobby appeal?



It seems to me that accumulating career statistics for today's players is much harder than in the past. So does it really matter from a hobby perspective if any current player reaches 100 bWAR? I mean even if Soto does achieve this feat but does not win any MVP's will it really change his hobby status?



I think the hobby has spoken. Ohtani and Judge are the hobby kings right now because their peak performance is just so much better than everyone else. And the MVP awards are the result. Both seem to have a lot more peak left in their careers and probably more MVP awards will result. My guess is both won't make it to 100 bWAR, but will have more hobby appeal than many on the list.[/QUOTE]Good question. I used 100 bWAR because its a nice round number and a modern player has reached it. When Trout was in track to smash 100 bWAR he was head and shoulders above any other hobby name. Not because of the number 100 but because the "inner hall" is filled with guys that accumulated at least that or around that.

WAR is the primary single relevant statistic to show a player's performance and value, so its a very relevant question for the hobby. The next guy that gets there will undoubtedly be a hobby darling. Not that a hobby darling need get there as you intimated, but its still a relevant question and a fun one to ask on a hobby forum.

We are in an interesting 'WAR Accumulation Spot" in the sport. Trout, the current modern leader, has fallen off a cliff way to early in his career. The 2 guys that are throwing consistent 8-10 WAR seasons down started their careers relatively late and have had injury histories which hampers their chances of getting into that WAR rarified air. The next guy up can't play defense.

And I love staring at WAR lists - current year and historical both. They inform me in a simple way of the pecking order of baseball greatness. Obviously its not that simple but its the perfect jumping off point.

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[QUOTE=discostu;19949832]Rickey and Albert seem to show that if you aren't sitting at (or close to) 100 WAR by age 36...you probably aren't getting over that hump your twilight years.

And just think, had Pujols retired 6 years sooner (at the age of 36)...he'd have more WAR.

It's not about longevity...it's about prime years accumulation.[/QUOTE]

Yup, good point. But also, it’s a measurement of how much better you are than the replacement level players of your specific time. Replacement level players are much better than the ones Ruth went against.

[QUOTE=discostu;19949832]It's not about longevity...it's about prime years accumulation.[/QUOTE]

Pretty much. Even if there's a slow start, it's all about the prime years.

Rickey, for instance, only recorded a bWAR of -0.9 his rookie year (89 games), and then it skyrocketed to 8.8 after his second season.

[QUOTE=discostu;19949832]Rickey and Albert seem to show that if you aren't sitting at (or close to) 100 WAR by age 36...you probably aren't getting over that hump your twilight years.

And just think, had Pujols retired 6 years sooner (at the age of 36)...he'd have more WAR.

It's not about longevity...it's about prime years accumulation.[/QUOTE]

I have to respectfully disagree with the first part of the last sentence.

31 players have accumulated 100+ WAR, and only 5 or 6 played less than 20 MLB seasons - all but 1 played 17 or more. You can’t accumulate WAR without playing, and there seems to be a strong correlation.

[QUOTE=ScooterD;19949874]I have to respectfully disagree with the first part of the last sentence.

31 players have accumulated 100+ WAR, and only 5 or 6 played less than 20 MLB seasons - all but 1 played 17 or more. You can’t accumulate WAR without playing, and there seems to be a strong correlation.[/QUOTE]

I probably misunderstood his point, but I think you're both highlighting two sides of the same truth:

You can’t accumulate 100 WAR without longevity.

But, almost no one makes significant gains past age 36.

It seems accumulating WAR during the prime years is key, and longevity after a certain age mostly adds smaller marginal value (or even subtracts WAR in some cases).

To that point, Arod got to 100 fWAR by around age 34. Soto would need about 60 WAR over next 8 years to do that. Can he do 7.5 War a year for 8 years? Maybe as long as he's never injured or has a down year.

Nichols had 101 WAR at age 30.

Phil Niekro accumulated 65.5 WAR AFTER turning 35!!!

Both are shocking to me

[QUOTE=ScooterD;19949904]Nichols had 101 WAR at age 30.

Phil Niekro accumulated 65.5 WAR AFTER turning 35!!!

Both are shocking to me[/QUOTE]

No dis to Kid Nichols, but his career spanned from 1890 to 1906, so I just can’t take his WAR total too seriously. He was playing against guys who were also barbers, bar tenders, and various other professions when not at the ball park.

[QUOTE=JRX;19949891]To that point, Arod got to 100 fWAR by around age 34. Soto would need about 60 WAR over next 8 years to do that. Can he do 7.5 War a year for 8 years? Maybe as long as he's never injured or has a down year.[/QUOTE]
Soto needs to essentially be 19-26 year old Soto for the next 10 years x 162 games to hit 100 by age 36, since he is at 6.3/162 in that time period. He is on pace to be slightly above that this year.

[QUOTE=TBTC Baseball;19949914]Soto needs to essentially be 19-26 year old Soto for the next 10 years x 162 games to hit 100 by age 36, since he is at 6.3/162 in that time period. He is on pace to be slightly above that this year.[/QUOTE]

Depends on which War you use, he's below that rate for fangraphs war.

NERDS!!!!!!!

this thread is very boring

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19949945]this thread is very boring[/QUOTE]

They can’t all be threads about Roki Sasaki’s True Rarity card.


(Although he sure did try.)

[QUOTE=TBTC Baseball;19949914]Soto needs to essentially be 19-26 year old Soto for the next 10 years x 162 games to hit 100 by age 36, since he is at 6.3/162 in that time period. He is on pace to be slightly above that this year.[/QUOTE]


That’s good! He hasn’t hit his peak years yet (in my opinion). Should be easy then [emoji106]


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Soto would be my choice

I'm not sure there are any currently. Soto, Witt, and Gunnar would be the most likely IMO, but I'd put Witt at the top of that group. J. Rod could get in the mix if he can ever figure out how to not suck to start every season. He's got a chance if he can start playing full years like he does July-September. It's way to early to mention him seriously, but James Wood will be in this conversation soon it looks like.

[QUOTE=jduds;19950174]I'm not sure there are any currently. Soto, Witt, and Gunnar would be the most likely IMO, but I'd put Witt at the top of that group. J. Rod could get in the mix if he can ever figure out how to not suck to start every season. He's got a chance if he can start playing full years like he does July-September. It's way to early to mention him seriously, but James Wood will be in this conversation soon it looks like.[/QUOTE]The answer may genuinely be a guy that hasn't made the bigs yet, or just broke in during the last year or 2.

Or maybe we dont see it again as the average replacement level player is just so close to superstars its impossible.

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I would imagine as awesome as Kyle Schwarber is, he’s closing in on it…

Wait, never mind.


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[QUOTE=JRX;19949925]Depends on which War you use, he's below that rate for fangraphs war.[/QUOTE]

Read the first post in this thread and then report back on which version of WAR this thread is about. :)!

Trout, Mookie, Ohtani & Carroll :)!