Top 1 Tim Duncan Rookie to Buy?
 

I am looking to buy one high end Tim Duncan rookie card to hold long term. My budget is around 2-2.5k. My preference tends to be low pop, combined with a well known card. I am thinking of the following:

1997 Topps Chrome PSA 10 (higher pop, but iconic)
1997 Bowman's Best Atomic #106 PSA 10 (low pop, but not as iconic).
1997 Bowman's Best Atomic #BP8 PSA 10 (low pop, but not an in game photo)
1997 Skybox Jambalaya PSA 8 (an amazing card, but does not seem to sell frequently, and the grade is lower).

Advice? Am I missing anything?

Thank you in advance.

97 Topps Chrome is my favorite but unfortunately is out of that price range for a PSA 10.

[QUOTE=tbart75;16774426]97 Topps Chrome is my favorite but unfortunately is out of that price range for a PSA 10.[/QUOTE]

Do you mean the refractor is out of that range? The base Topps Chrome is under this range, if I am not mistaken.

[QUOTE=FAM;16774440]Do you mean the refractor is out of that range? The base Topps Chrome is under this range, if I am not mistaken.[/QUOTE]

Yes refractor, sorry.

No problem. Thank you for your advice. The TC is really nice, but again, for me, the pop count is rather high compared to some other ones (i.e. Atomic).

I haven't really followed TD but where does the Finest Refractor land on this list?

Topps Chrome. Yes, the pop is higher, but so is the interest and demand. It's easier to move an iconic card that people are seeking out.

With $2500 I’d buy 2 TC’s

Flair legacy could be a nice option too

[QUOTE=BdotHobbs;16774578]With $2500 I’d buy 2 TC’s[/QUOTE]

I take it you would go 2 TC over 1 Bowman's Best Atomic Refractor? I really like the latter, but as noted, TC is just much more popular.

[QUOTE=ToppsAddict;16774565]Topps Chrome. Yes, the pop is higher, but so is the interest and demand. It's easier to move an iconic card that people are seeking out.[/QUOTE]

Its a very good point your raise.

I would buy 10 Topps Chrome PSA 9's, crack them, submit to PSA. I think it would be a good risk to get a PSA 10 and then sell the regraded cards and try for the Bowman's Best. I also think with population and prices, the PSA 9 Duncan's have the possibility of greater growth % as the PSA 10 reaches higher prices.

Chrome will eventually green. I’d not invest in those prices as price will plummet once they do green. Even if you have a green chrome I. A psa 10 case, no one will view it as a 10

[QUOTE=discodanman45;16774628]I would buy 10 Topps Chrome PSA 9's, crack them, submit to PSA. I think it would be a good risk to get a PSA 10 and then sell the regraded cards and try for the Bowman's Best. I also think with population and prices, the PSA 9 Duncan's have the possibility of greater growth % as the PSA 10 reaches higher prices.[/QUOTE]

Thank you. So do you ultimately side towards the rarer Bowman's Best Atomic?

I also like your point on PSA 9s. I agree that the 9s do see a bit low compared to the 10s, and that they could increase in price. I guess for me it is to your first point: I would do it to make a profit, and then ultimately move the money to one amazing card to hold for years. Hence, I keep going back to the rarity of the Atomic Bowman (pop in PSA 10 is only 37). But this could be a mistake, given that again, iconic seems to be more valued compared to just how rare a card is.

[QUOTE=FAM;16774648]Thank you. So do you ultimately side towards the rarer Bowman's Best Atomic?

I also like your point on PSA 9s. I agree that the 9s do see a bit low compared to the 10s, and that they could increase in price. I guess for me it is to your first point: I would do it to make a profit, and then ultimately move the money to one amazing card to hold for years. Hence, I keep going back to the rarity of the Atomic Bowman (pop in PSA 10 is only 37). But this could be a mistake, given that again, iconic seems to be more valued compared to just how rare a card is.[/QUOTE]

My opinion right now is probably not well received in the community of modern collectors, but I think many PSA 9's are undervalued and have greater growth potential. Why do stocks split when they reach $1000 or $2000? Many times it is because people can't afford the one share at $1000 and could buy 3 at $600. Think about supply and demand. How many people are willing to spend $1000 on one card? How many people would be willing to spend $200 on a card that is almost as good? I know POP reports and PSA 10's are really important, but there is a point when people are priced out of cards and will start looking at the PSA 9's. For you to double your money on a PSA 10, the card will have to go from $1000 to $2000, which is a $1000 increase. The PSA 9 to double your money would have to go from $200 to $400. With our crazy high PSA 10 premiums, I think PSA 9's will outperform their PSA 10 counterparts the next year. I could be wrong, but I think the multipliers are out of whack from cards in the 80's and 90's.

I prefer the Bowman's Best from a visual standpoint, but collector's already made up their mind which is the top card to get. However, I think everything is tied together. If the Topps Chrome goes up 10%, the Bowman's Best will go up 10%.

as an owner of a PSA 9 I would say load up on em hehe. I'm hoping one day that post-pandemic nines will sell for 70% of 10 year old tens

The Topps Chromes are nice, but the inevitable greening bothers me.

I wanted a Duncan PSA 10 RC for my collection and got this one last week...


[URL="https://www.instagram.com/p/CIpFjswnpxN/"]https://www.instagram.com/p/CIpFjswnpxN/[/URL]


Low pop, nice design, tough to find in perfect condition. Only other one I’d want is the Ultra because it’s also a pain to find mint because of chipping.

[QUOTE=Harper;16774646]Chrome will eventually green. I’d not invest in those prices as price will plummet once they do green. Even if you have a green chrome I. A psa 10 case, no one will view it as a 10[/QUOTE]
Stop spreading lies you don’t know that. I have copies that have yet to green from 96/97.

[QUOTE=kobebeast2020;16774957]as an owner of a PSA 9 I would say load up on em hehe. I'm hoping one day that post-pandemic nines will sell for 70% of 10 year old tens[/QUOTE]

Did some research on the Topps Chrome PSA 9 versus 10 for the last years increase in prices. I choose the average sold prices for 12/16/2020 and a year earlier

PSA 9 - $34 to $213.50 (6.3 x's growth)
PSA 10 - $215 to $1100 (5.1 x's growth)

So if you bought $10,000 of Topps Chrome Duncan rookies you would have made $41,000 in profit for PSA 10's and $53,000 in profit for PSA 9's. I don't understand why people think they make more profit on PSA 10's. The prices are linked together and a lot of times the PSA 9's can outperform the growth of PSA 10's.

topps chrome refractor

But metal universe my favorite

[QUOTE=discodanman45;16775036]Did some research on the Topps Chrome PSA 9 versus 10 for the last years increase in prices. I choose the average sold prices for 12/16/2020 and a year earlier

PSA 9 - $34 to $213.50 (6.3 x's growth)
PSA 10 - $215 to $1100 (5.1 x's growth)

So if you bought $10,000 of Topps Chrome Duncan rookies you would have made $41,000 in profit for PSA 10's and $53,000 in profit for PSA 9's. I don't understand why people think they make more profit on PSA 10's. The prices are linked together and a lot of times the PSA 9's can outperform the growth of PSA 10's.[/QUOTE]

nice work. cause most of us can't look at the big picture ?

[QUOTE=TFP;16775016]The Topps Chromes are nice, but the inevitable greening bothers me.

I wanted a Duncan PSA 10 RC for my collection and got this one last week...


[URL="https://www.instagram.com/p/CIpFjswnpxN/"]https://www.instagram.com/p/CIpFjswnpxN/[/URL]


Low pop, nice design, tough to find in perfect condition. Only other one I’d want is the Ultra because it’s also a pain to find mint because of chipping.[/QUOTE]

Congratulations. This is my favorite looking Duncan rookie card as well. However, I did not include it just because it is not seen in the same investment category (even though again, I think it looks the nicest out of all his cards).

Wait, until the summer. 100 % prices will drop 50%. If you don’t care about PSA. You can buy lots with some good Tim Duncan cards.

How do I know. I was purchasing lots of diff players in that time. Ex2000, ex Century, heirs, Skybox Premium Advantage, Flair legacy series 1, Metal universe, New Editions.

Do I need to keep naming diff series ? Trust me !

Why, so cheap in summer, because all the new investors our purchasing the hype players to flip before the season. If buying now, warning you ! The prices our up 100% from 3 months ago.

I'd be trying to get a Flair Legacy if you can.

The Jambalaya is not a RC but is the best card out of that lot.

Otherwise I'd be going for a Chrome Refractor.

[QUOTE=drobfan8;16775745]I'd be trying to get a Flair Legacy if you can.

The Jambalaya is not a RC but is the best card out of that lot.

Otherwise I'd be going for a Chrome Refractor.[/QUOTE]

For sure the jamba too! What's the price range on those these days? Gotta be way up there.