Can we talk about the price disparity between PSA and BGS and the future outlook?
 

I hope this doesn't get kicked to the grading section because no one will read it. I've been in the hobby a long time. I was in the hobby when BGS far outsold PSA, especially for modern stuff. We all know BGS has COMPLETELY crapped the bed in every possible area of their business, but I never thought I'd see the day when BGS would become so utterly destroyed by its competitor, that I actually worry it is going to go the way of GAI and SCD.

If you look at the recent Goldin Auction, the disparity is INSANE.

Doncic Gold Prizm PSA 10 - $800,000
Doncic Gold Prizm Auto BGS 9.5 - $100,000

(I realize this is not the same card, but historically the non-auto has not outsold the auto version by 8 to 1)

MJ RCs PSA 10 - 2 x $750,000
BGS 9.5 (with 9 centering, comparable to one of the PSA 10s) - $81,000
(almost 10x the price for PSA 10!)

Mantle RC PSA 8 - 1.2 million
Mantle RC BVG 8 - $247,000

Like, should we all be crossing everything to PSA at this point regardless of grade? I saw Ken's interview on IG (it's a must watch) and he said all his high end clientele pretty much don't care about BGS, all they want is PSA.

For rookie cards, there is no comparison. It's PSA by a mile.

Non-rookie stuff, the gap isn't as wide. PSA's preferred but if it's rare enough, it can be close.

Here's why:

BGS 11 (black label.)
BGS 10
BGS 9.5

PSA 10
PSA 9
PSA 8

BGS 9.5 doesn't equal PSA 10 because BGS 9.5 is the 3rd highest grade you can get. People only see them as the same because they both say Gem mint. Like the OP said, BGS has done everything it can to destroy itself and inventing a gimmicky BGS 11 has watered done what it means to get a 9.5

Also, I have done grading with both and it's much harder to get a PSA 10 than a 9.5 When I have a card that is in really good shape and I don't think it will get a PSA 10, I send it over to BGS in hopes of hitting a 9.5 and it's worked before.

There are many cases where PSA 9's are outselling BGS 9.5's and I think it should be that way to be totally honest.

From a grading standpoint, when I see a min BGS 9.5 with one 9 subgrade I know that if it got cracked out and sent to PSA that the one 9 sub would result in a PSA 9.

PSA also has a registry....Beckett was too slow to adapt

Beckett does have the more secure cases
Beckett does have the Auto grade

But they are holding onto that advantage by a thread

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;16940624]PSA also has a registry....Beckett was too slow to adapt

Beckett does have the more secure cases
Beckett does have the Auto grade

But they are holding onto that advantage by a thread[/QUOTE]

Beckett labels also slide around the cases; PSA grades autos.

heard that bgs is trying to raise their prices as well... think its safe to say - better to send to PSA and wait than send to bgs and wait

PSA is a listed company and now they even united with Nat Turner. As we knows, the most important thing for a listed company is their annual financial statement report which they need to keep it raising for profit in order to keep the stocks increase. We collectors have tons of PSA 10 graded cards and these cards have nothing to do with PSA's financial report for whatever the prices they sell in secondary market like eBay. Getting more and more submissions especially for items with high values is the most important way for PSA to making profits and to keep the stocks going. With the gap between two companies is getting larger and larger, Beckett is facing a quite difficult situation here.

Again, I would say the reason that causing the gap isn't about the cards. For example, I bought a couple PSA 10 LeBron Topps Chrome for $300 each back in 2014 or 2015; at the same period of time, I bought an another two BGS 9.5 Topps Chrome LeBron for $240 and $280. This kind of scale kept for a long time until recent two years when PSA stocks got boomed.

The only thing I can say is good luck to Beckett since I like their products as much as I do for PSA and SGC.

[QUOTE=pejc300;16940601]Like, should we all be crossing everything to PSA at this point regardless of grade? I saw Ken's interview on IG (it's a must watch) and he said all his high end clientele pretty much don't care about BGS, all they want is PSA.[/QUOTE]
Obviously yes if you are looking to make money. If you are buying for your collection, you should buy whichever slab you like best.

Im surprised as well, BGS has had their issues but so has PSA. I've always preferred the look of the BGS case and I like knowing the sub grades of the card but PSA has always out sold BGS but never by this margin. The sell margin between the 2 is still growing and I don't know what BGS can do to reverse the trend at this point. I will say that the difference in values could be a soft spot in this crazy market at the moment if BGS can find a way to turn it around.

[QUOTE=sethc1020;16940718]Im surprised as well, BGS has had their issues but so has PSA.[/QUOTE]
Like Ken said last night, the guys buying this stuff don't know the market like we do. They want PSA and they want 10s. They want the best of the best. They don't care if the PSA 10 is 60/40 centering and the BGS 9.5 looks perfect. It does not matter when we're talking about this kind of money.

Becketts grading system is unique and detail for many but it is also what hurts them. The "9.5" grade kills them when compared to PSA 10s. With so much new money coming in from Wall St number guys that just look at numbers, they should just KISS.

If you can't beat em, join em.

If I ran BGS, I would just ditch the subgrades and the 9.5 and go straight to a simple 1 to 10. Get rid of the silly unattainable black label 10, convert all 9.5 to 10 (extra revenue) and come up with a program for reviews.

I'll never happen cause they spend so much time on their backlog.

KISS - keep it simple stupid

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;16940723]Like Ken said last ........ they want 10s.....[/QUOTE]

Nailed it !

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;16940723]Like Ken said last night, the guys buying this stuff don't know the market like we do. They want PSA and they want 10s. They want the best of the best. They don't care if the PSA 10 is 60/40 centering and the BGS 9.5 looks perfect. It does not matter when we're talking about this kind of money.[/QUOTE]

Good point.

People buying the grade not the card when they are wanting virtually indistinguishable 9.5 or 10. The 10 is just simple, highest grade, so to many it just means "BEST." On the one hand I get it, on the other the price difference between 10 and 9.5 is silly to me. As a buyer I go with BGS 9.5 when I can for multiple reasons, lot of value there relatively speaking and the cards look great. The bonus is I also prefer BGS cases and subgrades.

It really sucks for me, i was going to sell a big card that is bgs 9.5 now i have no choice but to pay their ridiculous 5k fee and all the other expenses of shipping and insurance to maximize profit.

[QUOTE=rasclat;16940989]It really sucks for me, i was going to sell a big card that is bgs 9.5 now i have no choice but to pay their ridiculous 5k fee and all the other expenses of shipping and insurance to maximize profit.[/QUOTE]

I feel the same extortion, but the premium is worth it. Are you going to send in the slab or crack?

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;16940723]Like Ken said last night, the guys buying this stuff don't know the market like we do. They want PSA and they want 10s. [B][B]They want the best of the best[/B][/B]. They don't care if the PSA 10 is 60/40 centering and the BGS 9.5 looks perfect. It does not matter when we're talking about this kind of money.[/QUOTE]

Yes, Mahomes Panini Prizm #269 PSA 10 sold for $11,685 last night whereas BGS 10 Pristine sold for $55,350. It is a trophy for rich people. They want to brag that they own best of the best. It is the same as other collectibles such as paintings, vintage cars etc.

[QUOTE=Clipperfan3;16940615]

From a grading standpoint, when I see a min BGS 9.5 with one 9 subgrade I know that if it got cracked out and sent to PSA that the one 9 sub would result in a PSA 9.[/QUOTE]

That's not necessarily true at all. PSA is way more lenient on centering as their own grading standards tell you.

The gap will narrow eventually, but I agree you certainly can't say BGS 9.5 with great centering = psa 10 anymore.

What the market wants now != what it will want in the future or we wouldn't even be having this discussion. BGS was prized before, now it's not. Things will change although probably not in the near future.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;16940723]Like Ken said last night, the guys buying this stuff don't know the market like we do. They want PSA and they want 10s. They want the best of the best. They don't care if the PSA 10 is 60/40 centering and the BGS 9.5 looks perfect. It does not matter when we're talking about this kind of money.[/QUOTE]

This is all there is to it.

Ken also said this and he’s completely right (paraphrasing):

[I]“If you’re collecting to collect, buy what you like. If you’re investing, buy what other people like.”
[/I]
These other people like PSA. The technicals and details don’t matter. It’s what they like and what they want.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;16940723]Like Ken said last night, the guys buying this stuff don't know the market like we do. They want PSA and they want 10s. They want the best of the best. They don't care if the PSA 10 is 60/40 centering and the BGS 9.5 looks perfect. It does not matter when we're talking about this kind of money.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. I actually see this as an easy way to make $. People worry too much about the grade, and not the actual card. We have all seen a few PSA 10's that do not look like PSA 10s. Sure, maybe it was an early submission, but at the end of the day the card is the card. I guess that is why we have seen these secondary "grading companys" pop up. The ones that "grade the graders."

But I have got a few nice BGS cards that I plan to slab swap for profit. No real reason a BGS 9.5 with solid sub grades should be going for less than a PSA 9 other than the perception of the new buyers in the market.

You need to capitalize on the perception IMO.

Not to say you should be taking advantage of all newcomers, but for things like this I see it as an easy opportunity to profit/further my collection.

[QUOTE=rasclat;16940989]It really sucks for me, i was going to sell a big card that is bgs 9.5 now i have no choice but to pay their ridiculous 5k fee and all the other expenses of shipping and insurance to maximize profit.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=MikawlBBC;16941018]I feel the same extortion, but the premium is worth it. Are you going to send in the slab or crack?[/QUOTE]

Is the $5k going to be worth it when it doesn't cross or comes back a PSA 9?

I've tried to cross over a dozen cards to PSA with 9.5's on all subgrades and only two crossed.

I feel like BGS prices and grades are the most accurate. Someone paying more than 2X for a PSA 10 over a BGS 9.5 is nuts to me. I get liking one case over the other; but it's the same card. Personally i'm fine with just buying and selling BGS and PSA barely affects me. It sucks when there is a nice PSA card I want; but i don't want to pay double for it.

All these base PSA 10 rookies going for $500+ will be crashing hard in a few years. Once the new folks are more educated... you'll see PSA and BGS close the gap.

I get both companies have their flaws; but i trust BGS way more when i buy a graded card. When/If i buy PSA anymore... i need to see good pics of the card. I've gotten too many white corner / off center PSA 10s. Saying a PSA 10 is perfect; is a HUGE misconception. I've found flaws in nearly every PSA 10 i own; which is probably close to 50 now. So if you think that 9.5 is so much worse; i recommend looking at a sample population of 10-20 each.

Personally i like the sub grades... i know what i'm getting. I like the inner sleeve/bigger case of BGS for modern cards. Waterproof, so moisture doesn't get in there like PSA. I love the look of PSA for vintage... but even that; i'm starting to convert more to BGS.

Many educated folks say it.... sell PSA; buy BGS.

BGS overthought it all. PSA simplified it.

Can somebody please link me to this Ken interview?

TY