Are we in the early 90s again!
 

Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?

man, i hope so!

I think there's a market for it right now but yea I think it will bubble and go down. Graded cards will keep their value better.

A thought that comes to me is that topps keeps increasing the prices of boxes meaning more people are turning just to buying single cards. When the bubble bursts cant wait to see prices go down again for products. 3 packs of heritage retail cost me like 50 CAD yesterday ridiculous!

There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

Probably hard to stay in if you invest an enormous amount and you end up losing big. Plus, how can kids get into cards when they can't even get them at retail stores anymore?

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

I think you're wrong about A&G. It's been proven time and again that A&G scores oddball cards (most current is the Egg). But, there's many, many first cards of famous people and other sport athletes who have yet to be tapped into from prior A&G sets. If anything, I see A&G containing many hidden gems that collectors don't even realize exist.

yea, Ginter is gaining steam after being dormant for many years (IMO)

I feel like we get one of these threads a weeks at this point.....

[QUOTE=CxL;17079014]I feel like we get one of these threads a weeks at this point.....[/QUOTE]

one a week would be a dry spell lol

[QUOTE=dhcollecting;17078901]Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?[/QUOTE]

the '90s pump popped from the strike- where would we be now if that never happened? Base cards losing most their value is absolutely nothing new and rare variations have also pretty much always held their value relative to the market.

[QUOTE=kabrune2;17078934]There will be winners and losers from the Topps sets, with Flagship paper losing value but variations will probably hold. And I’m sure there will winner sets (like 2020 Flashbacks Finest) and other sets that may not hold any value (I’m looking at you A&G).

It’ll really depend on how many of the folks entering the hobby (either first time or returning when collecting as kids) actually stay and collect going forward into 2025 and longer[/QUOTE]

I think you are very wrong about sets like A&G and Heritage. Those are held up right now in price because of the set collectors. Those are set collector sets, not flipper sets. This is also why (except the rare chromes and autos) the prices on these sets don’t skyrocket with everything else.

That means they are more “bubble pop” proof than everything else because the collectors will still put together their sets every year, which again, is what holds these two specific products up.

Flagship will be fine too, there are how many collectors who have been putting together the flagship set every year? How many collectors are trying to put together all sets 1952-current? Those guys will still be buying flagship.

Everything else will be hit real hard when it does finally pop.

Baseball will also not be hit nearly as hard as basketball and football. The prices are still not as high in baseball, and the collector base is stronger than the flipper base in baseball.

hope so.

[QUOTE=smanzari;17079033]the '90s pump popped from the strike- where would we be now if that never happened? Base cards losing most their value is absolutely nothing new and rare variations have also pretty much always held their value relative to the market.[/QUOTE]

Ah, but see here we are now. Card print runs going up (still not to early 90s levels), prices soaring very similarly to the early 90s, and wait, what’s that...there’s a strong potential for a strike in 2022!

It is eerily similar to the early 90s right now in this hobby. Those of us who collected through both can see it.

There are differences that make me believe the crash won’t be as bad this time, but will still happen. The biggest of which is social media and the internet.

I loved collecting in the early 1990's. I would go to shows all over the place and have fun, like the American Legion or practically any Mall. Most of the people I knew back then had a sports card collection in some form. I really hope this resurgence in the "Hobby" will at least keep some of the new collectors/investors around for good.

[QUOTE=tedwilliamsfan;17079070]I loved collecting in the early 1990's. I would go to shows all over the place and have fun, like the American Legion or practically any Mall. Most of the people I knew back then had a sports card collection in some form. I really hope this resurgence in the "Hobby" will at least keep some of the new collectors/investors around for good.[/QUOTE]

It would be awesome! I miss that part so much. I am sick of trading online, I want to trade in person again. I want to sit and talk about the hobby again, not just how much someone made off this card, or who their going to make millions off next. I want to just have a live conversation about the hobby again. Even at the LCS, the only person I can actually talk about the hobby is the owner. All the other customers only really care about the money to be made. Very few actual clectors there. There are a couple, but they normally don’t hang out very long because the flippers annoy them.

I want the bubble to pop so I can buy more boxes! I don’t care too much about what the cards are worth, I prefer to trade and what’s it matter if I am trading a $20 card for a $20 card or a $500 card for a $500 card? It doesn’t. However, if prices go back to what they were even a year ago, then I can afford to open more boxes again, and now I get more cards.

When it does pop, the clectors will stay all that will go away is the flippers that we all can’t stand in the hobby anyways.

Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid!

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079110]Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid![/QUOTE]

Some places are already doing them. The issue I have heard of, but I haven’t been to one myself yet to see myself if it’s true, is so many basement dwelling neck beards are there, and social distancing is next to impossible because they will come right up on you and try to force you out of their way. Those same guys then throw hissy fits when they can’t convince the 20 year old kid with the PSA 9 TC Kobe refractor to trade it for his PSA 10 base Prizm Zion.

One guy was telling me there was one of these guys who was yelling and screaming in the middle of the show because he couldn’t afford these kids prices and how he should be allowed to force these new kids out of the show. He also got mad because no one would buy his hanger boxes and blaster from him at 3x retail.

Those are the guys who need to be shown the door in this hobby. Retail flippers way worse than Sneaker Bois.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079145]Some places are already doing them. The issue I have heard of, but I haven’t been to one myself yet to see myself if it’s true, is so many basement dwelling neck beards are there, and social distancing is next to impossible because they will come right up on you and try to force you out of their way. Those same guys then throw hissy fits when they can’t convince the 20 year old kid with the PSA 9 TC Kobe refractor to trade it for his PSA 10 base Prizm Zion.

One guy was telling me there was one of these guys who was yelling and screaming in the middle of the show because he couldn’t afford these kids prices and how he should be allowed to force these new kids out of the show. He also got mad because no one would buy his hanger boxes and blaster from him at 3x retail.

Those are the guys who need to be shown the door in this hobby. Retail flippers way worse than Sneaker Bois.[/QUOTE]

Jeeze I always have a good time at shows but yea the social distancing and stuff is why im still staying away for now.

+I never find anything I really need as my collection is eclectic at best lol. I remember walking around the national in 2019 and having people think i was joking when id inquire l0l.

But man miss that fun of just being there!

[QUOTE=Uwfootball1;17079173]Jeeze I always have a good time at shows but yea the social distancing and stuff is why im still staying away for now.

+I never find anything I really need as my collection is eclectic at best lol. I remember walking around the national in 2019 and having people think i was joking when id inquire l0l.

But man miss that fun of just being there![/QUOTE]

Even if you can’t find anything you need, just being there was always worth going. Seeing some stuff that you never get to see, cards you know you could never afford, and talking to like minded people is such a good time.

My area will have their first show in 15 years in a couple weeks and I am hoping I can go. Whether it is safe or not will be my deciding factor, it’s a 45 minute drive, which isn’t bad, but I don’t want to get out there and then see no distancing, no masks, too many people etc. I hope I can go though!

Looking at all these cards online is one thing, that’s just an image. But when I get to actually hold and look at closely someone’s 1952 Mantle, that was so different than looking at pictures online. You get such a better appreciation for it at that point, and I know I will never afford one so seeing it in person is what I get!

[QUOTE=dhcollecting;17078901]Tell me if I'm wrong, but it feels like card companies are pumping out as many cards as they can and as fast as they can. 10 years from now are all these rookies going for big bucks going to be worthless like cards from the early 90s?

I assume the rare variations will hold value, but base cards will lose most of their value?[/QUOTE]

They're smarter this time around. Instead of making 5 million of the same card, they split that 5 million up into 1 million different set variations so everyone thinks everything is rare.

Just have to figure out which variations will be the popular ones and which people will put in dollar bins.

if the bubble popped id be able to afford some sick griffey refractors finally

card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time

[QUOTE=Triple B;17079208]They're smarter this time around. Instead of making 5 million of the same card, they split that 5 million up into 1 million different set variations so everyone thinks everything is rare.

Just have to figure out which variations will be the popular ones and which people will put in dollar bins.[/QUOTE]

I hope your right and Topps at least will have the memory of the horrible years they made less money, and how long it took to come back. That was also when they had Basketball and Football to help hold them up while they dealt with the consequences of what they did to themselves in baseball. They don’t have that this time around.

[QUOTE=actionbryan;17079209]if the bubble popped id be able to afford some sick griffey refractors finally[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=actionbryan;17079213]card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time[/QUOTE]

Cards like Griffey refractors are ones that I see being less impacted by bubble popping. Just like in the 90s, 50s and 60s cards didn’t drop much. Those cards were 30-40 years old at the time of popping and the guys who grew up watching them kept buying them. 90s Griffey cards are now 30 years old, and it’s guys who grew up watching him that are buying them. Exact same idea, so those cards should barely drop, maybe 25% would be my guess. We also don’t know how high they will go before the pop.

As far as shows go, many areas are throwing COVId to the wind and doing shows now. The good ones are limiting how many people can be in the show at a time, and there is a socially distanced line waiting to get in. When someone leaves, the next guy can go in. Mall shows are coming back too, and I haven’t seen a mall show in at least 25 years! That to me is a huge sign of the booming hobby. Now, IIRC, mall shows lasted about 6-7 years last time, so if we are just starting them now, then we probably have about 4-5 years until the decline.

[QUOTE=dashcol;17079199]Even if you can’t find anything you need, just being there was always worth going. Seeing some stuff that you never get to see, cards you know you could never afford, and talking to like minded people is such a good time.

My area will have their first show in 15 years in a couple weeks and I am hoping I can go. Whether it is safe or not will be my deciding factor, it’s a 45 minute drive, which isn’t bad, but I don’t want to get out there and then see no distancing, no masks, too many people etc. I hope I can go though!

Looking at all these cards online is one thing, that’s just an image. But when I get to actually hold and look at closely someone’s 1952 Mantle, that was so different than looking at pictures online. You get such a better appreciation for it at that point, and I know I will never afford one so seeing it in person is what I get![/QUOTE]

so true! its always fun to pick up some cool items that just look good. Even if they are cheap online its no fun to do that pay 4$ shipping for the 2$ item.

And on the other hand not knowing if it will look as good to you in person on higher value items