Why No Hobby Love For Xander Bogaerts?
 

Couldn’t find a thread on this, apologies if it’s been covered before.

.300+ BA the last two years. 10+ HR average per every 200 ABs the last two years. (Wrote it that way b/c of last year). At 28, he’s got an outside shot at 3,000 hits if he stays healthy. So what gives? Seems like there are some really good deals out there, or is the hobby just generally unreceptive to him?

baseball good, not hobby good indeed

You missed his hobby peak a few years back.

[QUOTE=thewild3;17131953]You missed his hobby peak a few years back.[/QUOTE]

I don’t know. If he’s hitting .320 with 15HR at the All-Star break, you have to think his prices are up a bit. Same if he’s knocking on HOF door 12 years from now.

He’s an above average player — guys like him get little / no Hobby Love

When you have more than a handful of SSs are equal or better than him in the big league (Story Turner Anderson Correa Lindor Tatis) and another handful of guys up and coming (Torres Bichette Franco Witt Abrams Luciano), and you are not in a competitive team, you won't have much hobby love.

[QUOTE=Chicharito;17132017]When you have more than a handful of SSs are equal or better than him in the big league (Story Turner Anderson Correa Lindor Tatis) and another handful of guys up and coming (Torres Bichette Franco Witt Abrams Luciano), and you are not in a competitive team, you won't have much hobby love.[/QUOTE]

And I forget Seager

Check out the Xander fan thread for more discussion


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So folks generally think Rafael Devers is a better buy right now at similar prices due to younger age and possible higher upside? (Red Sox fan here).

[QUOTE=MogulSkier39;17132028]So folks generally think Rafael Devers is a better buy right now at similar prices due to younger age and possible higher upside? (Red Sox fan here).[/QUOTE]

Definitely- he did really good at age 22 his last full Season ( 2019 )
It’s too late ( IMO ) for old Xander — he’s had his youthful chance and didn’t really blossom - now he’s a good guy to have on your team, but not good enough to build a Team around.....

[QUOTE=cardsin47;17132039]Definitely- he did really good at age 22 his last full Season ( 2019 )
It’s too late ( IMO ) for old Xander — he’s had his youthful chance and didn’t really blossom - now he’s a good guy to have on your team, but not good enough to build a Team around.....[/QUOTE]

I think you’re probably right. But I think if Xander settles into a .300+ 25HR+ guy for a string of the next five or more years he’s probably still a pretty good buy right now, no?

Of course, that’s a big “if.”

I use a very casual metric of dividing a player's WAR by their Plate Appearances and like my long-term investment guys usually at .008 +

Bogaerts is at ~.005 (using bWAR). I think that combined with "not standing out" in terms of personality, media etc. leads to a very solid player, just not hobby good.

Just my two pennies..

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He had expensive prospect cards but then didn’t hit enough dingers. Next.

[QUOTE=MogulSkier39;17132046]I think you’re probably right. But I think if Xander settles into a .300+ 25HR+ guy for a string of the next five or more years he’s probably still a pretty good buy right now, no?

Of course, that’s a big “if.”[/QUOTE]




Sorry, You are reaching here. That's a HUGE if.



I love Xander. Solid player, but just doesn't move the needle.

At age 28.5 it looks like he’ll fall short. Although he does have a couple of rings.

Shortstop (99th):
23.1 career WAR / 22.8 7yr-peak WAR / 22.9 JAWS
Average HOF SS (out of 23):
67.5 career WAR / 43.1 7yr-peak WAR / 55.3 JAWS

Similar Batters through 27
Vern Stephens (944.3)
Bobby Doerr (921.8) *
Joe Torre (916.6) *
Carlos Baerga (912.2)
Travis Jackson (908.8) *
Starlin Castro (904.7)
Jimmy Rollins (902.4)
Edgardo Alfonzo (902.0)
Joe Cronin (901.4) *
Hanley Ramirez (898.8)

1 good stretch or 1 good game for a bump.

He's someone people will recognize in the long-term. No worries - keep holding/buying.

[QUOTE=DiegsHobby;17132097]I use a very casual metric of dividing a player's WAR by their Plate Appearances and like my long-term investment guys usually at .008 +

Bogaerts is at ~.005 (using bWAR). I think that combined with "not standing out" in terms of personality, media etc. leads to a very solid player, just not hobby good.

Just my two pennies..

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BTW this is very cool - I haven’t heard it before, but it makes sense :)!


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[QUOTE=MogulSkier39;17131779]Couldn’t find a thread on this, apologies if it’s been covered before.

.300+ BA the last two years. 10+ HR average per every 200 ABs the last two years. (Wrote it that way b/c of last year). At 28, he’s got an outside shot at 3,000 hits if he stays healthy. So what gives? Seems like there are some really good deals out there, or is the hobby just generally unreceptive to him?[/QUOTE]


BTW just checking his recent completed sales... his prices don’t seem much different than Devers... so it’s not like he’s super cheap...


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[QUOTE=MogulSkier39;17131973]I don’t know. If he’s hitting .320 with 15HR at the All-Star break, you have to think his prices are up a bit. Same if he’s knocking on HOF door 12 years from now.[/QUOTE]

You must be new. No.

Never the best player on his team
Never the best SS in his league

That’s enough for me


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[QUOTE=pewe;17132263]BTW this is very cool - I haven’t heard it before, but it makes sense :)!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]Thank you. My super-secret formula for guys that have a decent track record.

Wish I had the know-how to create some sort of list instead of calculating individually myself.

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He had his time.

This hobby is all flavor of the week.

Fond memories of trading a few bogaerts and Bradley jr BC autos slabs for a Brett Jackson gold BC auto. Oh and I had to throw in some PayPal too

Why No Hobby Love For Xander Bogaerts?
 

[QUOTE=cardsin47;17132039]Definitely- he did really good at age 22 his last full Season ( 2019 )
It’s too late ( IMO ) for old Xander — he’s had his youthful chance and didn’t really blossom - now he’s a good guy to have on your team, but not good enough to build a Team around.....[/QUOTE]



Didn’t really blossom?? The dude’s a star. Between ‘18 and ‘19, he totaled 155 XBH and 240 RBI, with a combined OPS above .900. And he didn’t exactly slow down during the Covid season.

What is your idea of “blossoming”?

He’s not a hobby giant because the position and his team are crowded spaces, and he hasn’t had a monster season to set off the FOMO panic button.

He’s had a steady ascent, starting when Mookie was there and David Ortiz was still around, and then was overshadowed by JD Martinez, who was for a time the best hitter in baseball. In the meantime, a very young Devers has captured more of the prospector’s imagination.

On top of that, it’s been my observation that Red Sox Nation, as a whole, is not that strong of a collecting clan. (No offense to super collector Pewe.)

While the career trajectory is a little different, I would put Xander in the Adrian Beltre category. At some point, people are going to realize they’ve been overlooking a great player who’s put together a Hall-worthy career.