Michael Kopech Hold or Sell?
 

Thanks for having me, first post here.

So I know the dude just came off TJ surgery and is now coming into the season as relief pitcher. However, I also know some people are still high on him in terms of eventually transitioning back into a starter role. I've also read that pitchers are high risk/reward over positional players.

All that said, I picked this up from panini (unlicensed I know), and am wondering if I should keep or just sell? Think it is worth holding for a year or two to see how he develops?

2019 Donruss (technical rookie year) Auto 1/1

Read the Chase Utley thread. Then just take most of those comments and apply them here.

He opted out last year due to Covid and personal issues.

It looks like those have worked themselves out and he’s physically back to game shape.

They want him as a starter, but they don’t have the roster space as of now and this Is better to have him build endurance.

As for his cards? I would buy any low Hanging fruit.

easy sell

Sell once he spot starts and does decent. Maybe just sell when he fans 3 in a row in the 8th for a hold. Been a top 100 prospect for 6 years now.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;17163637]Read the Chase Utley thread. Then just take most of those comments and apply them here.[/QUOTE]

Totally understand the perspective there. I think the difference is that Chase Utley is done. Kopech is just starting his career, just not sure the trajectory for him is my issue.

[QUOTE=Adskie;17163668]Totally understand the perspective there. I think the difference is that Chase Utley is done. Kopech is just starting his career, just not sure the [B]trajectory for him[/B] is my issue.[/QUOTE]

Its not good...if you're "investing"

[QUOTE=clocsta2323;17163661]Sell once he spot starts and does decent. Maybe just sell when he fans 3 in a row in the 8th for a hold. Been a top 100 prospect for 6 years now.[/QUOTE]

Kind of what I'm leaning towards.

I love this guy - he throws harder than most everybody with movement. Like all pitchers his health is the key and with one TJ in his past hopefully he can regain form. He’s a low risk investment his stuff isn’t very highly priced at all so even if he’s a bust it’s not going to be that painful investment wise.

He and Forest Whitley can compete for who takes the longest to be relevant


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hold.. tall + power pitchers usually take longer to develop because it's harder to get really good, consistent mechanics (ex. glasnow, giolito) and in kopech's case it's been injuries holding him back since atleast he's has shown some legit flashes when he's pitched.

[QUOTE=jhssketchcards;17163975]He and Forest Whitley can compete for who takes the longest to be relevant


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Brent Honeywell is insulted you didn’t include him here.

I'll pick him up if the price is right.

In fact, I've been picking up 2019 S1 parallels for a while, but they are tough to find. If anyone has any they want to move, give me a shout.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;17164032]Brent Honeywell is insulted you didn’t include him here.[/QUOTE]


My condolences... I mean apologies


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[QUOTE=BigMac;17164008]hold.. tall + power pitchers usually take longer to develop because it's harder to get really good, consistent mechanics (ex. glasnow, giolito) and in kopech's case it's been injuries holding him back since atleast he's has shown some legit flashes when he's pitched.[/QUOTE]


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[QUOTE=BigMac;17164008]hold.. tall + power pitchers usually take longer to develop because it's harder to get really good, consistent mechanics (ex. glasnow, giolito) and in kopech's case it's been injuries holding him back since atleast he's has shown some legit flashes when he's pitched.[/QUOTE]
He's only 6'3". Giolito 6'6" and Glasnow 6'8".

Through 3 games in 2018 he sat 95, touched 98. Fourth & final game pitched, sat 94, touched 96 (source: brooks baseball) and gave up 4 HR. Hasn't pitched in the MLB since.

However, that 6inn, 1er start in 2018 was everything we hoped for. Then it was put on hold.

I'd guess he's going to be capped on innings, maybe just by his role more than anything, but I would think that's by design. The Sox have 5 starters plus Reynaldo Lopez if the need him, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Kopech bypassed if injuries hit. I'm sure his stuff will play in 1-2inn bursts, although I haven't checked spring velo.

If 2021 goes well, maybe he's a starter again next year?

I'd sell if there's a buyer and you feel good about the return. It could be 2 years until he's a quality starter, and injuries or lack of interest on his part could derail that again.

[QUOTE=jhssketchcards;17164171][IMG]https://media4.giphy.com/media/KGSxFwJJHQPsKzzFba/giphy.gif[/IMG]


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[QUOTE=towerymt;17164688]He's only 6'3". Giolito 6'6" and Glasnow 6'8".

Through 3 games in 2018 he sat 95, touched 98. Fourth & final game pitched, sat 94, touched 96 (source: brooks baseball) and gave up 4 HR. Hasn't pitched in the MLB since.

However, that 6inn, 1er start in 2018 was everything we hoped for. Then it was put on hold.

I'd guess he's going to be capped on innings, maybe just by his role more than anything, but I would think that's by design. The Sox have 5 starters plus Reynaldo Lopez if the need him, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Kopech bypassed if injuries hit. I'm sure his stuff will play in 1-2inn bursts, although I haven't checked spring velo.

If 2021 goes, maybe he's a starter again next year?

I'd sell if there's a buyer and you feel good about the return. It could be 2 years until he's a quality starter, and injuries or lack of interest on his part could derail that again.[/QUOTE]

hah my bad.. always thought he was atleast 6'5

[QUOTE=Adskie;17163563]Thanks for having me, first post here.

So I know the dude just came off TJ surgery and is now coming into the season as relief pitcher. However, I also know some people are still high on him in terms of eventually transitioning back into a starter role. I've also read that pitchers are high risk/reward over positional players.

All that said, I picked this up from panini (unlicensed I know), and am wondering if I should keep or just sell? Think it is worth holding for a year or two to see how he develops?

2019 Donruss (technical rookie year) Auto 1/1[/QUOTE]


Kopech was my high risk - high reward offseason gamble. I wouldn't advise buying outside a gamble.



[QUOTE=towerymt;17164688]He's only 6'3". Giolito 6'6" and Glasnow 6'8".

[B]Through 3 games in 2018 he sat 95, touched 98. Fourth & final game pitched, sat 94, touched 96 (source: brooks baseball) and gave up 4 HR. Hasn't pitched in the MLB since.[/B]

However, that 6inn, 1er start in 2018 was everything we hoped for. Then it was put on hold.

I'd guess he's going to be capped on innings, maybe just by his role more than anything, but I would think that's by design. The Sox have 5 starters plus Reynaldo Lopez if the need him, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Kopech bypassed if injuries hit. I'm sure his stuff will play in 1-2inn bursts, although I haven't checked spring velo.

If 2021 goes well, maybe he's a starter again next year?

I'd sell if there's a buyer and you feel good about the return. It could be 2 years until he's a quality starter, and injuries or lack of interest on his part could derail that again.[/QUOTE]

His elbow was shot. Of course his velocity was down and he looked bad at the end of 2018. His velocity is back up in the spring. Still a lot of uncertainty coming off TJ. I would think he will get a spot start or 2 during the season.

Thanks all! Appreciate the feedback here. I'll probably hold for a bit, seeing as how this card only ate up some panini points I wasn't using, didn't actually buy it from anyone.

Here's to hoping he keeps up the velocity and produces some quality outings.

[QUOTE=SupermanBrandon;17163637]Read the Chase Utley thread. Then just take most of those comments and apply them here.[/QUOTE]


Read the Chase Utley thread. Then just take most of those comments and apply them here.

[QUOTE=ALBASKETBALL;17164742]His elbow was shot. Of course his velocity was down and he looked bad at the end of 2018. His velocity is back up in the spring. Still a lot of uncertainty coming off TJ. I would think he will get a spot start or 2 during the season.[/QUOTE]
I'm not sure if there was something up before that last start in 2018, but the velo didn't look out of line. Velo looked consistent through 5 innings of the 6 inning start, then dropped slightly in the 6th inning of the 8/26/2018 start. It was fully back in the 8/31 start, but only 3 innings, so I would guess fatigue could have caused the 6th inning drop in the prior start. Then looking at that last start, it was down slightly.

The graphics aren't working for me on brooks baseball, but I would look at release point as a sign of potential injury. Definitely can be a sign of fatigue, I've heard Scherzer talk about that before.

I took a quick look on baseball savant for spin rate by game or inning and didn't see it, but maybe it's there? A drop in fastball spin rate can be an indicator of injury as well. I think it was Jeff Zimmerman (fangraphs) who had a google sheet with pitcher spin rate as an indicator of potential injury.

I found an article about a 1inn appearance this spring by Kopech where he's hitting 100-101. It's just one inning. If he knew he was going 5inn, I think it would be lower. So seeing 97-98 max in the starts in late 2018 prior to the final start don't give me any certainty that he was already dealing with an elbow injury prior to his call up in late 2018. Of course he could have had a partial tear, who knows, but the velo doesn't tell me there was a problem. (I didn't go looking at old articles/tweets to find out if there were signs prior to the final start).

I mostly look at this stuff in the context of fantasy baseball, but if I were seriously interested in buying cards of a pitcher, there are ways to dig into the data to see if there are signs of trouble.

I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do. I’ve got quite a bit of his lower end 2019 cards. Got some other nice stuff like Five Star auto /5 & /15, a Stadium Club First Day Issue, Inception auto /25 on my COMC account. Been fun finding some of his nice stuff for low prices. Will be even more fun to flip some of it in the near future.

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Oh man I want that clear

[QUOTE=thenwhatjk;17174348]Oh man I want that clear[/QUOTE]


I’m always open to offers. [emoji2]


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I say hold, Sox are playoff bound and Kopech should get some playoff action