calculusdork's 2022 Cy Young Predictor
 

[B]It's time.[/B]

Thread for 2018: [url]https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1236574[/url]
Thread for 2019/2020: [url]https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1295302[/url]
Thread for 2021: [url]https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?p=17456119[/url]

[U][B]Official Scoring Scale:[/B][/U]
70-79: Good season
80-89: Very good season
90-99: Excellent season
100-109: Likely CY winner
110+: Out of this world!


[U]For this initial iteration, I have not made any changes to the classic formula.[/U]

Let's get right to it. :)

[B][U]2022 NL CY Prediction[/B] (as of 7/13/22)[/U]
1. Sandy Alcantara [B]110.35[/B]
2. Tony Gonsolin 109.23
3. Corbin Burnes 97.79
4. Joe Musgrove 97.00
5. Carlos Rodon 90.07
6. Max Fried 88.36
7. Zack Wheeler 87.49

Honorable Mentions: Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, Logan Webb


[B][U]2022 AL CY Prediction[/B] (as of 7/13/22)[/U]
1. Shane McClanahan [B]112.13[/B]
2. Justin Verlander 100.32
3. Dylan Cease 91.80
4. Alek Manoah 90.09
5. Framber Valdez 87.27

Honorable Mentions: Logan Gilbert, Martin Perez, Nestor Cortes

Tony Gonsolin is doing quite a bit better than I expect many of you would like. Something about leading the NL in ERA, WHIP, and Wins. :) [I](For what it's worth, if I completely de-weight Wins, Alcantara takes a 5-point lead.)[/I]

No real surprises in the AL, except perhaps Dylan Cease in third over Alek Manoah. Cease is having an excellent season, with the WHIP (walks) keeping him from moving any higher in points.

Are Wins factored into your equations?

Thanks Grant!
Gonsolin closer than public perception here in the NL although I think all 7 guys are still in it.
McClanahan will need a stinker or at least start giving up some 3 run starts to be caught IMO. That is unless they decide to get concerned about his workload, in which case JV sails by. Cease is for sure the righty McClanahan, with a little more BB/HR exposure and a couple of bad lines mixed in. I can't see anyone beyond those 3 having a legit shot this year.
Gonsolin currently 11/1 to win CY which seems a nice value play

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;18297235]Are Wins factored into your equations?[/QUOTE]

Yes, but they are 5th in the pecking order behind ERA, K, IP, and WHIP. Also, see my post above. :)

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297242]Yes, but they are 5th in the pecking order behind ERA, K, IP, and WHIP. Also, see my post above. :)[/QUOTE]

Because the Marlins really hurt Sandy in that category. Ugh.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;18297249]Because the Marlins really hurt Sandy in that category. Ugh.[/QUOTE]

I think wins are officially a tiebreaker-type category now. I wouldn't be concerned about it with respect to Sandy's performance.

Now, if Gonsolin wins 20 games and leads the NL in both ERA and WHIP, it might be a different story, even with 50 less IP.

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297230][B]Tony Gonsolin is doing quite a bit better than I expect many of you would like. Something about leading the NL in ERA, WHIP, and Wins.[/B] :) [I](For what it's worth, if I completely de-weight Wins, Alcantara takes a 5-point lead.)[/I]

No real surprises in the AL, except perhaps Dylan Cease in third over Alek Manoah. Cease is having an excellent season, with the WHIP (walks) keeping him from moving any higher in points.[/QUOTE]

41.2 innings difference for a 0.11 ERA lead?

will be curious to see how spencer strider fits into the mix if he continues to be this good for the reason of the season (i think he can) and doesn't get shut down at any point.

Final stat line of 8-9 starts less then other guys (but some releif work to offset it)
never throwing more then 6 IP in a game
compared with sub 2 ERA and highest K/9 in baseball history would be very intereting

The top 3 are no surprise. All 3 have been phenomenal

[QUOTE=rman112;18297395]41.2 innings difference for a 0.11 ERA lead?[/QUOTE]

Re-read the 2021 thread in its entirety. I highly recommend Silent George's posts.

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297456]Re-read the 2021 thread in its entirety. I highly recommend Silent George's posts.[/QUOTE]

Might need a "who should [I]actually[/I] win the Cy Young thread".

[QUOTE=rman112;18297464]Might need a "who should [I]actually[/I] win the Cy Young thread".[/QUOTE]

Sure, I mean if you just want a thread full of everyone's opinions

Oh wait, that's every thread on this forum

:D


[I](For real though, the intent here is to try to indicate who [B]will[/B] win, not necessarily who [B]should[/B] win.)[/I]

I'll turn the jerk dial down a few notches ...

Gonsolin isn't going to win. He can't sustain this. Alcantara, IMO, has a much higher chance of continuing this pace. FWIW, his career FIP is much higher than his career ERA, which means FIP is broken for him.

Having said that, if the 2021 NL race taught us anything, it was this: Voters as a whole are starting to care more about rate stats and advanced stats and leaning away from wins, innings pitched, etc. I firmly believe a big part of why Burnes won last year was because of his FIP and, consequently, his fWAR.

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297497]I'll turn the jerk dial down a few notches ...

Gonsolin isn't going to win. He can't sustain this. Alcantara, IMO, has a much higher chance of continuing this pace. FWIW, his career FIP is much higher than his career ERA, which means FIP is broken for him.

Having said that, if the 2021 NL race taught us anything, it was this: Voters as a whole are starting to care more about rate stats and advanced stats and leaning away from wins, innings pitched, etc. I firmly believe a big part of why Burnes won last year was because of his FIP and, consequently, his fWAR.[/QUOTE]

it was around 1912 when ERA became an official stat, and to qualify for the league lead, you had to average 1 inning per game.

It's 2022, and it appears to me that that 100+ year old decision to arbitrarily set it at an inning per game impacts voting today.

Voters DO care about innings pitched. If you pitch below the arbitrary 162, you haven't pitched enough to qualify. But if you hit that mark, then how many above it really doesn't matter: we move on to rate stats.

That's how I explain last year's vote.

[QUOTE=johnlocke36;18297398]will be curious to see how spencer strider fits into the mix if he continues to be this good for the reason of the season (i think he can) and doesn't get shut down at any point.

Final stat line of 8-9 starts less then other guys (but some releif work to offset it)
never throwing more then 6 IP in a game
compared with sub 2 ERA and highest K/9 in baseball history would be very intereting[/QUOTE]

The 10 less starts and the low innings are the things that are going to keep him out of any serious talks.

And getting that highest K/9 number means he's going to have to start pitching 6+ innings a game. He needs to get to 162 innings to qualify. Only at 70 innings. Atlanta has 72 games left, so 14-15 starts for Strider. 5 innings a start doesn't get him there.

There's a lot more working against him than there is for.

[QUOTE=Silent George;18297506]it was around 1912 when ERA became an official stat, and to qualify for the league lead, you had to average 1 inning per game.

It's 2022, and it appears to me that that 100+ year old decision to arbitrarily set it at an inning per game impacts voting today.

Voters DO care about innings pitched. If you pitch below the arbitrary 162, you haven't pitched enough to qualify. But if you hit that mark, then how many above it really doesn't matter: we move on to rate stats.

That's how I explain last year's vote.[/QUOTE]

Good clarification ... except ...

Lance Lynn finished third last year :)

Gonsolin pitched more than 90 IP in a season only once in his career (128 in 2018 at A+ and AA). He is already at 88 this year. The current output is not sustainable over a full season. So his ERA and WHIP will definitely climb.

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297541]Good clarification ... except ...

Lance Lynn finished third last year :)[/QUOTE]

Since there wasn't a qualified P who was closed to Lynn. The next best P was probably Rondon who pitched even less :p

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297497]I'll turn the jerk dial down a few notches ...

Gonsolin isn't going to win. He can't sustain this. Alcantara, IMO, has a much higher chance of continuing this pace. FWIW, his career FIP is much higher than his career ERA, which means FIP is broken for him.

Having said that, if the 2021 NL race taught us anything, it was this: [B] Voters as a whole are starting to care more about rate stats and advanced stats and leaning away from wins, innings pitched, etc. I firmly believe a big part of why Burnes won last year was because of his FIP and, consequently, his fWAR.[/B][/QUOTE]

Agreed.

But...

Gonsolin ranks 30th in WAR and 22nd in FIP. I don't see he'd get more than maybe 1 or 2 votes if the season ended today.

[QUOTE=calculusdork;18297541]Good clarification ... except ...

Lance Lynn finished third last year :)[/QUOTE]

Yes, but he got 113rd, 5 4th, and 5 5th, with 9 leaving him off completely. Not great, Bob.

I feel my rule only really exists for the top spot. I've had this conversation with plenty of people on here. MVP should come from a winning team! 2nd place MVP? who cares!

Once a voter picks number one, I feel like they scrutinize every other spot a lot less.

[QUOTE=Silent George;18297599]Yes, but he got 113rd, 5 4th, and 5 5th, with 9 leaving him off completely. Not great, Bob.

I feel my rule only really exists for the top spot. I've had this conversation with plenty of people on here. MVP should come from a winning team! 2nd place MVP? who cares!

Once a voter picks number one, I feel like they scrutinize every other spot a lot less.[/QUOTE]

[IMG]https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/508/121/43f.gif[/IMG]

[QUOTE=hche;18297563]Since there wasn't a qualified P who was closed to Lynn. The next best P was probably Rondon who pitched even less :p[/QUOTE]

Yeah, it was a real mess of a race.

TangoTiger currently has:

1. Alcantara
2. Burnes
3. Gonsolin
4. Musgrove

1. McClanahan
2. Verlander
3. Cease
4. Manoah


I'm guessing by the end of August, we'll have a decent NL race brewing between Alcantara and Burnes.

[QUOTE=rman112;18297586]Agreed.

But...

Gonsolin ranks 30th in WAR and 22nd in FIP. I don't see he'd get more than maybe 1 or 2 votes if the season ended today.[/QUOTE]

True but If he gets to 20 and no one else does and has the era title under 2? Hard to not give it to him