Group Breaks Valuation and the hobby
 

For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the Fanatics App. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?

Mike Trout (and pretty much everyone else still breathing) will be signing for a long long time

i would expect his and everyone elses autos to be more affordable as time goes by

What does “the hobby” in your title mean??

If you can correctly answer that question then you already know how to answer your other ones.

Agree with you. This is not the hobby. I just question why these group breaks continue to drive things. Other than the manufacturers and the breakers, who comes out ahead? How long will it be until the equation is no longer profitable for them?

Most people who get into breaks are not holding their break hits for 15 years…

Also, you could say the same thing about the entire hobby as far as value, not just group breaks.

Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319252]Agree with you. This is not the hobby. I just question why these group breaks continue to drive things. Other than the manufacturers and the breakers, who comes out ahead? How long will it be until the equation is no longer profitable for them?[/QUOTE]

You are dealing with degenerate gamblers in most cases. A tale as old as time.

I don't see a time where it is never profitable to them because there will always be an old degen pumping his pay into breaks and new ones getting that first break buzz! With more hits than ever, that dopamine rush gets them early!

I am guilty of this, but have really eased up on my breaking and now get into fiscal trouble buying singles :)

[QUOTE=Badgers0821;19319262]Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.[/QUOTE]

You can't avoid it, as much as you want to.

[QUOTE=Badgers0821;19319262]Most people who get into breaks are not holding their break hits for 15 years…

Also, you could say the same thing about the entire hobby as far as value, not just group breaks.

Please let’s not have another “breaks are just like gambling at casinos” thread, it’s been done before, many times.[/QUOTE]

This thread brings in the “Mike Trout’s future value” and the “I hate breakers” crowd. It’s like it was scientifically engineered to go for 25 pages.

Gamblers aren’t hobbyists, they’re resellers.

[QUOTE=IronCladLou;19319267]You are dealing with degenerate gamblers in most cases. A tale as old as time.

I don't see a time where it is never profitable to them because there will always be an old degen pumping his pay into breaks and new ones getting that first break buzz! With more hits than ever, that dopamine rush gets them early!

I am guilty of this, but have really eased up on my breaking and now get into fiscal trouble buying singles :)[/QUOTE]

A lot of the buzz around group breaks has dissipated since the highs of a few years ago. The "hits" are selling for much less than they were as well. I expect that trend to continue as time goes on, with the number of break participants declining as breaks become a less popular and trendy form of gambling.

[QUOTE=MoreToppsPlease;19319294]Gamblers aren’t hobbyists, they’re resellers.[/QUOTE]

Gambling is a hobby -- it's entertainment.

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19319273]This thread brings in the “Mike Trout’s future value” and the “I hate breakers” crowd. It’s like it was scientifically engineered to go for 25 pages.[/QUOTE]

That crowd is addicted to these threads.

For products, there are a lot of 1 of 1s each year so it is hard to keep those values up high. Even for cut autos of players who passed away.

Any current player auto, non-low number hits, seem to decrease as time goes by since they will keep having more and more of them released. Granted it could look cool, or be a jersey numbered card, but until there is another new type of card (honestly really can't think of one) that would take the hobby by storm, it would be hard for any auto/relic type card to hold significant value of a player who lived a long life and signed throughout their playing career and after.

Now if Trout stopped signing for 10+ years then his autos would climb up due to supply and demand.

Generally speaking, group breaks would offer the worst house odds for the bettor in any casino.

Group breaks are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy

[QUOTE=theshowandme;19319429][B]Group breaks [/B]are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy[/QUOTE]

Pretty much fill in the blank in this hobby. Catching lightning in a bottle when nobody else is trying to is key.

Trout will sign forever. He's basically signing every product. If you want rarer autos, find guys who don't sign anymore, or can't sign anymore.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319245]For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the [B]Fanatics App[/B]. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE]

It's calling for you. Just give in and buy a few breaks.

[QUOTE=KhalDrogo;19319413]Generally speaking, group breaks would offer the worst house odds for the bettor in any casino.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=theshowandme;19319429]Group breaks are one of the dumbest things you can do with your money if you care about being wealthy[/QUOTE]

I do want to point out that Houdini's 10 & 100 case player breaks were worth it if you picked the player you wanted and you weren't a nut along with someone else. Prices went nuts in late 2020 if I recall correctly. The Sapphire randoms were really nice as well. Limited checklists and a lot of boxes at once. There are very few people with both the means AND source to attain that many cases. With some players you just never know. I just went through a few and pulled out Evan Carter and Spencer Strider Sapphire 1sts that were from random player breaks. I PSA Gemmed 80% of them.

[QUOTE=mschoeneman;19319245]15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE]

Playing day autographs tend to have more value than retired autos.

As for odds, just like the casino, it depends on what game you play. Spending $1000 on the Angels in a Five Star case break is a lot different than $1000 on a 100 case Bowman Draft Player. In Five Star, you can get nothing, in a Bowman Draft break you are guranteed over 200 chrome(last I checked) and color parallels. If it's an Auto, the avergae was about 17 autos and parallels.

As long as there are people who enjoy a gamble, have money to burn to do so (or addicted and pile on debt), or just prefer it for the "fun" it's not going away.

[QUOTE=Archangel1775;19319598]I do want to point out that Houdini's 10 & 100 case player breaks were worth it if you picked the player you wanted and you weren't a nut along with someone else. Prices went nuts in late 2020 if I recall correctly. The Sapphire randoms were really nice as well. Limited checklists and a lot of boxes at once. There are very few people with both the means AND source to attain that many cases. With some players you just never know. I just went through a few and pulled out Evan Carter and Spencer Strider Sapphire 1sts that were from random player breaks. I PSA Gemmed 80% of them.



Playing day autographs tend to have more value than retired autos.

[B]As for odds, just like the casino, it depends on what game you play. Spending $1000 on the Angels in a Five Star case break is a lot different than $1000 on a 100 case Bowman Draft Player. In Five Star, you can get nothing, in a Bowman Draft break you are guranteed over 200 chrome(last I checked) and color parallels. If it's an Auto, the avergae was about 17 autos and parallels[/B].[/QUOTE]

This is a great distinction - I've been watching a bunch of '23 Five Star group breaks where people are getting absolutely murdered financially, I do not get that at all. However, Topps S1/Bowman Chrome type products - I like the group break format to purchase only the teams/players I collect. It's probably not going to give you your investment back, but at least you'll walk away with something you actually want. Breaking full boxes on your own doesn't return your investment the majority of the time either.

I have found that, most group break participants, are indeed overweight.

[QUOTE=imbluestreak23;19319644]I have found that, most group break participants, are indeed overweight.[/QUOTE]

Breakers and break participants are not that different either

During the pandemic, we called them "FVD"s, fat vaping degens.

If you have a wsj subscription, here's a great article on how PointsBet keeps their whales hooked on online sports betting.

[url]https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/gambling-addiction-sports-betting-apps-4463cde0[/url]

And as a reminder, Fanatics acquired PointsBets' US operations for $225 million in Oct 2023.