2024-25 Prospecting MEGA hype thread.
 

Does anyone even prospect any more or do we just buy the top 3 draft picks and pray?

Anyways, here are some affordable, under-the-radar, guys who I think are on the verge of a breakout

The pattern in players that I will generally follow / invest in is probably pretty obvious based on these 4 guys but if not here is some high level criteria:

1) Big wings / forwards - 6'7+. Pretty self explanatory. Small guards never last in the NBA. Small, score first guards generally have the most hype coming out of the draft and 95% of them totally flame out.

2) Must at least be a + ball handler. Sometimes it only shows in transition, but this is one of the things I always focus on. If you're unable to handle the ball, and require someone to set you up, you're never going to be a good offensive player and therefore making your hobby ceiling low

3) Shot creator. Secondary shot creator with primary upside. This goes a lot with ball handling. If you're unable to create your own shot, your hobby upside is very low

4) Aesthetic / smooth jumpshot & GOOD SHOT SELECTION. I don't really pay too much attention to shooting efficiency. It's not a great indicator by itself, especially early in careers. Shot selection however, is a phenomenal indicator of whether you're going to develop an offensive game or not

5) Probably the least important but worth looking at, raw stats improvement each of your first 2-3 years.

The most important part of prospecting is actually [B]WATCHING[/B] games. No, not looking at the TV while a game is on. Lock onto the player you're prospecting and watch every step he takes. Subtle things like, how well is he moving off ball, is he getting mucked up and looking like he doesn't know where to go? Is he making decisive and intentional moves? How aggressive is he with the ball? How is the passing/decision making? etc...

I'll start with Jalen Johnson, who already had a mini breakout this season. I bought him last offseason because I expected a leap with Collins leaving. I've added some through the season but will start picking up more going into next year.

[B]Jalen Johnson:[/B]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/k0S6TCU.jpeg[/img]


[B]Trey Murphy:[/B]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/UvuhBnS.jpeg[/img]


[B]Tari Eason:[/B]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/X7uTltW.jpeg[/img]


[B]Dyson Daniels:[/B]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/OH8TqZg.jpeg[/img]

Im surprised you dont have Herb Jones over Dyson Way better offensively Cant deny Dysons defense but he makes alot of mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. He also hesitates to shoot the ball I love Trey "Trigger" Murphy and he should be in a starting role next year

I appreciate you sharing this. Don't get many people talking about second tier rookies anymore on the forums; either they don't know or don't want to share the guys their prospecting.

I'll admit that I missed the boat on Johnson. After his first two years, I had written him off.
I felt Murphy was too old as a prospect coming out and was solely a shooter... after listening to some podcasts, they seem to think that he has some playmaking juice that could elevate his game.
I completely forgot about Eason since he was injured this year. Might get lost in the Rockets wing rotation with Jabari and Brooks there, but I like his stats at first glance.
I'm not bullish on Daniels since he can't shoot.

Thanks for the write up and sharing.

I am really hoping Daniels pops off. I don't have any of his cards, but I love his build and his core skill-set

[QUOTE=blackandgold;19440714]Im surprised you dont have Herb Jones over Dyson Way better offensively Cant deny Dysons defense but he makes alot of mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. He also hesitates to shoot the ball I love Trey "Trigger" Murphy and he should be in a starting role next year[/QUOTE]

Herb doesn't really fit any of my criteria other than being a big wing.

Dyson is kind of a wildcard but I expect him to be full time PG next season in NO.

I'm kind of betting on the Pelicans trading BI at some point next year

[QUOTE=SteveIsLegend;19440722]I appreciate you sharing this. Don't get many people talking about second tier rookies anymore on the forums; either they don't know or don't want to share the guys their prospecting.

I'll admit that I missed the boat on Johnson. After his first two years, I had written him off.
I felt Murphy was too old as a prospect coming out and was solely a shooter... after listening to some podcasts, they seem to think that he has some playmaking juice that could elevate his game.
I completely forgot about Eason since he was injured this year. Might get lost in the Rockets wing rotation with Jabari and Brooks there, but I like his stats at first glance.
I'm not bullish on Daniels since he can't shoot.

Thanks for the write up and sharing.[/QUOTE]

Dyson is a total wildcard. If he can figure out how to shoot he's going to be the best of the bunch. He's elite defensively and a good playmaker.

You nailed it what I see in Trey. He's another guy that would benefit tremendously without BI being on the team.

Everybody forgot about Eason but he was playing great ball this season. Good buy low candidate

Franz Wagner, Bennedict Mathurin, Keegan Murray all have potential for me, in that order. Kind of just depends on price, what it is that you're buying, will it grade out as a 10, yada yada. But those three have cemented rotation spots on decent teams.

[QUOTE=msink28;19440789]Franz Wagner, Bennedict Mathurin, Keegan Murray all have potential for me, in that order. Kind of just depends on price, what it is that you're buying, will it grade out as a 10, yada yada. But those three have cemented rotation spots on decent teams.[/QUOTE]

I like Franz as a basketball player, don’t really like his hobby outlook.

I think he was “too good, too soon” if that makes sense. Guys who come into the league and are so good as rookies / 2nd year, that they pull forward all the would be 2nd/3rd year buyers. To me, Franz is plateauing which is not good for his cards. I think he can improve around the margins but I don’t see a big leap from him. His stuff was already pretty high

Mathurin I just don’t like at all. I’m either gonna be spot on or totally wrong with my assessment of him. He falls squarely into the “bad shot selection” camp for me. It just annoys me watching him play to be totally honest. Even when his shot is falling it’s hard to watch the head down, dribble 500 times, and take a contested shot.

He’s either gonna be that volume poor shot taker bench guy or he’s gonna be a star. Total boom or bust.

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19440676]
or do we just buy the top 3 draft picks and pray?

[/QUOTE]

Not a good way to build a desirable Collection, have fun Collecting, or cash in your chips one day without getting financially crushed :doh:

I like Franz, his stuff is cheap and the Magic have potential. If he fixes the three ball, he'll be a smooth 20 PPG for years.

Mathurin's shot selection is garbage but he has star potential which is usually what I'm looking for if buying. I also think Indiana's roster construction is a bit strange and will be interested to see if he gets a more defined role in the future.

That would be my question about the guys you mentioned, can they become outright stars. For Jalen Johnson I think yes, the others I would doubt, and I really like Trey Murphy as a player but I just doubt his star power.

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19440805]I like Franz as a basketball player, don’t really like his hobby outlook.

I think he was “too good, too soon” if that makes sense. Guys who come into the league and are so good as rookies / 2nd year, that they pull forward all the would be 2nd/3rd year buyers. To me, Franz is plateauing which is not good for his cards. I think he can improve around the margins but I don’t see a big leap from him. His stuff was already pretty high

Mathurin I just don’t like at all. I’m either gonna be spot on or totally wrong with my assessment of him. He falls squarely into the “bad shot selection” camp for me. It just annoys me watching him play to be totally honest. Even when his shot is falling it’s hard to watch the head down, dribble 500 times, and take a contested shot.

He’s either gonna be that volume poor shot taker bench guy or he’s gonna be a star. Total boom or bust.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=msink28;19440831]I like Franz, his stuff is cheap and the Magic have potential. If he fixes the three ball, he'll be a smooth 20 PPG for years.

Mathurin's shot selection is garbage but he has star potential which is usually what I'm looking for if buying. I also think Indiana's roster construction is a bit strange and will be interested to see if he gets a more defined role in the future.

That would be my question about the guys you mentioned, can they become outright stars. For Jalen Johnson I think yes, the others I would doubt, and I really like Trey Murphy as a player but I just doubt his star power.[/QUOTE]

Agree on Mathurin, he definitely has that offensive bag that you could see in a star.

I generally don't like the boom or bust guys, I'd rather have a lower ROI.

I pick the "safe" guys who I think are going to take a modest leap in stats and popularity. Going from no hype, to just a little bit is enough to move cards and make a little profit, but I also miss out on the big stars.

Jalen Johnson I think I got lucky, he's way better than I even thought. I mostly just bought his stuff because his usage with Collins out was going to get bumped a bit.

Franz should especially be a steal this offseason after that game 7 disgrace/dud/breakdown/wtf happened/Mobley owned him.

[QUOTE=msink28;19440789]Franz Wagner, Bennedict Mathurin, Keegan Murray all have potential for me, in that order. Kind of just depends on price, what it is that you're buying, will it grade out as a 10, yada yada. But those three have cemented rotation spots on decent teams.[/QUOTE]

Mathurin I watched closely. He had a nice rookie year peak when he would just pummel to the basket and pick up a foul. Unfortunately, that approach in the second year didn't merit as many foul calls, as he was often nowhere near the basket and he got injured. I don't see him as more than a plug-in on Pacers at this point, as McConnell can do basically what he does even on secondary, and all the starters can score. He tried to bulk up his defense but he is no Nesmith or Nembhard. Jarace Walker has the height and hands to be the next Myles, so that's that position filled if his shooting develops.

Mathurin's basically watching a lot of high level basketball at the moment though, so let's see if his understanding of the game evolves. I think he will break out ultimately on getting traded to a team that wants to plug in offense and help lead a few low playoff teams, or be second wheel to a younger star rookie by the time he gets more knowledgable about the game.

A couple other guys I like for the price out of this year's class are Amen Thompson, Cason Wallace and Anthony Black.

Lots of value all around with these young guys though. If you compare to a few years ago where people were shoving piles of money at guys like Darius Bazley, Cam Reddish, Marvin Bagley, Kevin Knox, James Wiseman, we're in a way better place right now. At least you can buy a card of a guy who has shown big flashes on the court.

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19440844]Agree on Mathurin, he definitely has that offensive bag that you could see in a star.

I generally don't like the boom or bust guys, I'd rather have a lower ROI.

I pick the "safe" guys who I think are going to take a modest leap in stats and popularity. Going from no hype, to just a little bit is enough to move cards and make a little profit, but I also miss out on the big stars.

Jalen Johnson I think I got lucky, he's way better than I even thought. I mostly just bought his stuff because his usage with Collins out was going to get bumped a bit.[/QUOTE]

Problem with prospecting on lower end players like these are the price point is still high. They would have to transform from a really nice aolid piece to a perennial All Star type in order to make your money back.


Again, if the sole purpose is to collect then no arguments there.

[QUOTE=Antman5;19440994]Problem with prospecting on lower end players like these are the price point is still high. They would have to transform from a really nice aolid piece to a perennial All Star type in order to make your money back.


Again, if the sole purpose is to collect then no arguments there.[/QUOTE]

That might be right in the long term but not in the short term (within a season).

Jcard was pimping JJ early in the season, I got in a few cheap cards and flip them for a small profit during the season. And still have some of his stuff, some players have such a low entry point that any big improvement (even if they don't make the ASG) push prices up by a good margin.

Sengun is another example.

[QUOTE=blackandgold;19440714]Im surprised you dont have Herb Jones over Dyson Way better offensively Cant deny Dysons defense but he makes alot of mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. He also hesitates to shoot the ball I love Trey "Trigger" Murphy and he should be in a starting role next year[/QUOTE]

Herb Jones is way better offensively? Dude can't score to save his life and is 25 years old. Dysons a way better prospect...:eek:

And Murphys a better prospect than Daniels and Jones combined so will agree with you there

[QUOTE=Antman5;19440994]Problem with prospecting on lower end players like these are the price point is still high. They would have to transform from a really nice aolid piece to a perennial All Star type in order to make your money back.


Again, if the sole purpose is to collect then no arguments there.[/QUOTE]

The sweet spot if the off-season after year 2. Especially for guys who aren’t in the playoffs. You get suppressed prices as the focus is ons the playoffs and through the offseason.

Normally I would have sold Jalen at the end of this season but I think he’s in a really good spot in Atlanta to put up numbers. At one point in the season his stuff had gone 5x, which isn’t that much considering I got most of his stuff for pennies

For reference, I’m paying $5 or less for Prizm silvers, that’s really where I’m at. My goal is to double up, pretty much.

Jalen Johnsons a stud - hoping he can stay healthy but definitely has one of the highest ceilings out of the 2021 draft class

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19441106]The sweet spot if the off-season after year 2. Especially for guys who aren’t in the playoffs. You get suppressed prices as the focus is ons the playoffs and through the offseason.

Normally I would have sold Jalen at the end of this season but I think he’s in a really good spot in Atlanta to put up numbers. At one point in the season his stuff had gone 5x, which isn’t that much considering I got most of his stuff for pennies

For reference, I’m paying $5 or less for Prizm silvers, that’s really where I’m at. My goal is to double up, pretty much.[/QUOTE]

Got you. That’s a good strategy.

[QUOTE=boxbuster7;19441040]Herb Jones is way better offensively? Dude can't score to save his life and is 25 years old. Dysons a way better prospect...:eek:

And Murphys a better prospect than Daniels and Jones combined so will agree with you there[/QUOTE]

You better go do some homework is all I gotta say Herb Jones finished in the top 30 for 3 pointers made Overall he shot 50% from the field last year In transition Herb jones is a beast not counting his overall defense

All-in on BoChamp.

Worst case: Viet Hachimura w/ ancient eagle spirits.

Best case: minimum wage #teamlightestskin Yannis.

[QUOTE=ninjacookies;19441957]All-in on BoChamp.

Worst case: Viet Hachimura w/ ancient eagle spirits.

Best case: minimum wage #teamlightestskin Yannis.[/QUOTE]

Always difficult to tell whether you're being serious or not

[QUOTE=jcardstore;19442127]Always difficult to tell whether you're being serious or not[/QUOTE]

Dats cuz yur fromm Ohio!

Or something like that. I probably spelled too many of the words correctly.

I kind of like

[B]Jaden Ivey-[/B] If and its a massive IF the Pistons can figure out how to fit Cade and Jaden together the talent is there. I don't think he's ever going to be a superstar but his Prizm Silvers can easily be had for less than $10 so there is a lot of upside there.

[B]Tari Eason-[/B] Seems like maybe a good candidate for the Jalen Johnson type of breakout as a versatile wing who can do a little bit of everything and his defensive switchability may give him a path to a surprising amount of playing time. His prices are rock bottom thanks to the leg injury that cost him most of the season so if you can get a silver Prizm for sub $5 seems like a good spec add. Again not a super star but there is something there if he gets minutes.