Blowout Cards Forums - View Single Post - Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

rogermaris · 01-26-2019, 09:30 PM

For those who aren't aware, some people have questioning whether Luka signs all his autographs. There's been a lot of back and forth in various threads, but I haven't seen anyone do any real analysis, so I thought I'd give it a shot. Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Luka is NOT signing all his cards.

The whole situation becomes a lot simpler when you look at it chronologically. So let's begin at the start, with Luka's original autograph from BEFORE he entered the NBA.

CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

This is Doncic’s original autograph. Very similar to the controversal “Lulu” autograph, right? Case closed, right? Nope! Keep reading...

Here's the second iteration of Luka's autograph:

CHARACTERISTICS:
- No longer reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s often come close to touching
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

Doncic's autograph changes once he makes it to the NBA, to no surprise. He's signing more than ever. And like most NBA players who are forced to sign a semingly endless supply of rookie cards, he shortens his signature. You can see how he derived his new, shortened signature from his original “Lulu” one. I've included the jersey he signed in person for the kid (that was linked in the other thread) because I've seen it used as an example of an IP signature that matches the questionable "Lulu" ones. However, it clearly matches his new, fast signature that he's developed, as you can see when it's placed side by side with others. It's still way taller and more compressed and more rushed than the questionable "Lulu" signatures. Also note that this shortened signature is the one Doncic uses on his earliest released draft cards from Panini.

For some players though, shortening their signature is not enough. So perhaps, like many athlete's facing this situation, he enlists some outside help. Be it his mom, a friend, whoever. This person is instructed to forge his signature. But of course, they don't forge his newly shortened signature. They attempt to forge his original, "Lulu" signature.

Which is why in Panini's second wave of releases, the strange new "Lulu" signature suddenly appears...

CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu," but does not match original "lulu" autographs
- Slow and neat
- Not compressed; lots of space between letters
- Wide letters, big loops
- Some examples have all letters same height; "L"s not tall enough compared to "U"s

Even when you compare this new Lulu autograph to his original, pre-NBA autograph, they don't match. The size, speed, compression are all different. The variation between them is about as much as you would expect between any two random individuals who attempt to write "Lulu" in cursive. If you asked my mom to forge Luka's original pre-NBA signature, she would probably come up with something very close to the questionable "Lulu" signatures. It looks like it could have been written by anyone proficient in cursive, but it does not match Luka's handwriting.

And of course, narratively it makes no sense. Am I supposed to believe that in the middle of shortening his autograph to make it faster to sign, Luka suddenly decides to make it longer and slower than it was before he entered the NBA? I can't think of any reason why he'd do that and in fact it runs counter to his motivation for shortening his autograph in the first place.

But that being said, I did my absolute best to create an alternative narrative that would explain the chronological evolution of Doncic's signature...

ALTERNATE NARRATIVE A: Doncic shortened and sped up his signature when he first got to the NBA, but then for some unexplicable reason, he starts alternating between his new "fast" signature, and an extremely neat, slow version of his autograph, the likes of which we've never seen. Even neater and slower than his pre-NBA autograph. And he's using his new, neater version of his autograph to sign thousands of stickers. It would be one thing if he debuted his slow, neat signature on a handful of high end cards, but these are sticker autos we're talking about. If Luka has developed a shortened, faster signature, one would assume he'd be using it for sticker autos. Honestly, this ss the only other narrative I can even think to introduce, despite the fact that it doesn't make sense.

If you still have doubts, just look at a comparison between his pre-NBA sticker auto and the sticker autos we're seeing now.

Pre-NBA "Lulu" sticker auto (small, tall, compressed, "L" much taller than "U"):

Current questionable "Lulu" sticker auto (slow, wide, stout, all letters same height):

TL;DR: I'm dubious about the recent "Lulu" autographs. That being said, I'm open to alternate narratives, if anyone wants to try and build one...

I also want to add that I have no dog in this fight. I don't even collect modern cards and was not aware of this controversy until very recently. I just think it's potentially damaging for the hobby in general and worth discussing.

01-26-2019, 09:30 PM	#1
rogermaris Member Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 1,196	Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis For those who aren't aware, some people have questioning whether Luka signs all his autographs. There's been a lot of back and forth in various threads, but I haven't seen anyone do any real analysis, so I thought I'd give it a shot. Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Luka is NOT signing all his cards. The whole situation becomes a lot simpler when you look at it chronologically. So let's begin at the start, with Luka's original autograph from BEFORE he entered the NBA. CHARACTERISTICS: - Reads as "lulu" - Nearly vertical - Very tall and compressed - Fast, sketchy - "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s This is Doncic’s original autograph. Very similar to the controversal “Lulu” autograph, right? Case closed, right? Nope! Keep reading... Here's the second iteration of Luka's autograph: CHARACTERISTICS: - No longer reads as "lulu" - Nearly vertical - Very tall and compressed - Fast, sketchy - "L"s often come close to touching - "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s Doncic's autograph changes once he makes it to the NBA, to no surprise. He's signing more than ever. And like most NBA players who are forced to sign a semingly endless supply of rookie cards, he shortens his signature. You can see how he derived his new, shortened signature from his original “Lulu” one. I've included the jersey he signed in person for the kid (that was linked in the other thread) because I've seen it used as an example of an IP signature that matches the questionable "Lulu" ones. However, it clearly matches his new, fast signature that he's developed, as you can see when it's placed side by side with others. It's still way taller and more compressed and more rushed than the questionable "Lulu" signatures. Also note that this shortened signature is the one Doncic uses on his earliest released draft cards from Panini. For some players though, shortening their signature is not enough. So perhaps, like many athlete's facing this situation, he enlists some outside help. Be it his mom, a friend, whoever. This person is instructed to forge his signature. But of course, they don't forge his newly shortened signature. They attempt to forge his original, "Lulu" signature. Which is why in Panini's second wave of releases, the strange new "Lulu" signature suddenly appears... CHARACTERISTICS: - Reads as "lulu," but does not match original "lulu" autographs - Slow and neat - Not compressed; lots of space between letters - Wide letters, big loops - Some examples have all letters same height; "L"s not tall enough compared to "U"s Even when you compare this new Lulu autograph to his original, pre-NBA autograph, they don't match. The size, speed, compression are all different. The variation between them is about as much as you would expect between any two random individuals who attempt to write "Lulu" in cursive. If you asked my mom to forge Luka's original pre-NBA signature, she would probably come up with something very close to the questionable "Lulu" signatures. It looks like it could have been written by anyone proficient in cursive, but it does not match Luka's handwriting. And of course, narratively it makes no sense. Am I supposed to believe that in the middle of shortening his autograph to make it faster to sign, Luka suddenly decides to make it longer and slower than it was before he entered the NBA? I can't think of any reason why he'd do that and in fact it runs counter to his motivation for shortening his autograph in the first place. But that being said, I did my absolute best to create an alternative narrative that would explain the chronological evolution of Doncic's signature... ALTERNATE NARRATIVE A: Doncic shortened and sped up his signature when he first got to the NBA, but then for some unexplicable reason, he starts alternating between his new "fast" signature, and an extremely neat, slow version of his autograph, the likes of which we've never seen. Even neater and slower than his pre-NBA autograph. And he's using his new, neater version of his autograph to sign thousands of stickers. It would be one thing if he debuted his slow, neat signature on a handful of high end cards, but these are sticker autos we're talking about. If Luka has developed a shortened, faster signature, one would assume he'd be using it for sticker autos. Honestly, this ss the only other narrative I can even think to introduce, despite the fact that it doesn't make sense. If you still have doubts, just look at a comparison between his pre-NBA sticker auto and the sticker autos we're seeing now. Pre-NBA "Lulu" sticker auto (small, tall, compressed, "L" much taller than "U"): Current questionable "Lulu" sticker auto (slow, wide, stout, all letters same height): TL;DR: I'm dubious about the recent "Lulu" autographs. That being said, I'm open to alternate narratives, if anyone wants to try and build one... I also want to add that I have no dog in this fight. I don't even collect modern cards and was not aware of this controversy until very recently. I just think it's potentially damaging for the hobby in general and worth discussing. __________________ IG: @90swax Last edited by rogermaris; 01-27-2019 at 01:51 AM.