Quote:
Originally Posted by KhalDrogo
Here are my thoughts going forward.
While I realize modern has been affected also, and is probably a more popular target because of the ease of acquiring and the sheer volume, I think the vintage market takes a bigger hit. Not today, next month, or even next year. But if the TPGs don't clean up this mess, you will see the effects in the coming years.
I'll give you my personal example. Right before this thread was created, I was looking at beginning the Sandy Koufax Topps playing years run. Nothing crazy, but starting with a PSA 7-8 and seeing where that took me. I will graduate fellowship in summer 2020, and expect to have a substantial amount of extra discretionary income to play with. Seemed like a good time to dive into vintage.
Flash forward to today, and I've abandoned that project before I even started. How can you trust any high-grade example or unusually clean example for the issue where the provenance is unknown? Is it worth spending tens of thousands of dollars a year only to find out later that your cards are altered, and the road to recourse may be impossible?
Growing markets need more new money entering than old money exiting. How will the vintage market attract new big spenders with this cloud hanging over it?
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Serious question, but did the market for autographed cards collapse with the recent revelations of vast pre-war forgeries? I had a good number of autographed cards I acquired in the 90s and have been selling off over the last couple of years. They're mainly junk wax, but I have seen zero slowdown and zero price depreciation.
I still think you guys are overestimating your reach/influence here. Like I mentioned in other threads, there have been numerous large auctions close since 'slabgate' hit the presses, and I can tell you with absolute certainty that there has been no slowdown to speak of yet. Prices are still crazy. When do you anticipate this market correction, and why is it so slow to come given the scope of these revelations? Some have mentioned shill bidding and hope, but I don't buy it.