Thread: 2019-20 NT FOTL
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Old 06-29-2020, 05:02 PM   #1569
Spacemanspif
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Originally Posted by Spacemanspif View Post
The biggest difference in these later releases is, there's ONLY focus on the last / highest sale, not the bigger picture.

Prizm was widely available for preorder and shortly after release for slightly above SRP. I remember people adamantly refusing to buy even when it was $600/case. It took several months, with virtually NO competition from other products, to reach the 5x SRP mark. AND the volume moving at current price point is very low. Seriously, if you have a closet full of the stuff and want to liquidate all of it, you're going to have to take a 20% cut because even listed at 10% under BO or D&A pricing on ebay, it took me a couple weeks to sell 4 blasters. Again, this is for the most desired, mainstream product.

NT came out the gate @800% of SRP. This was too much, and everyone knows it. I participated in one "random serial number" break this weekend, and even for the MINIMUM commitment to this product, I essentially lit $175 on fire. I knew it was a bad idea at the time, but figured, what the hell, I want to at least be a part of this for a second. Well, guess what. 40 cards out of 100 participants means 60 people are getting absolutely skunked. 30 more are getting some form of base card or patch that's worth $10, which is still a 90%+ loss. There's not going to be much tolerance for this at current levels, and I feel like this is the first time the market is pushing back on the supply side, as breaks are definitely not filling as quickly as they should for the #1 high end product.

Quick check of their websites show Plat did ~ 30 cases, Layton did 21. Jaspy's is still working on #8, Mojo did 11. There's FOUR THOUSAND CASES of this stuff. NT is your summer blockbuster, and for an opening weekend, this was pitiful. Sure, there are degenerates out there, but to open even half of the print run, it's going to take around $32 Million dollars. To me, that's just not feasible. This market isn't as big as people here like to think. To run up some Net Marvels or Bass PSA 10s only takes a few thousand dollars to completely manipulate a market and start some false momentum. This here is going to take millions in guaranteed losses, and is just not sustainable. I really think that if we don't see enough broken in the first month we might see them start dropping the price. Remember with the production stoppage we're seeing new products every couple weeks now. Noir, Court Kings, NT, and soon Spectra, Obsidian, Chronicles, Opulence. We went from product-starved to overload, there's not enough cash to support everything being dumped at 500%+ SRP at once.

The good thing about random team and serial breaks is I'll be picking off my Warriors cards and probably be able to get everything I want for the price of entrance to 2-3 team breaks, going to be tons of people ending up with cards they don't want because of the way they had to join breaks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spacemanspif View Post
Just wanted to give an update on the above numbers a week later. Plat went from ~30 cases completed to 51. Layton went from 21 complete to 36. Jaspy's completed their 8th and haven't posted more. Mojo went from 11 to 15. As I suspected, there was a huge dropoff week over week (69 completed cases in 3 days to 41 in 7 days), and after 2 full weekends of breaks I suspect 1) initial excitement has died down and 2) everybody is broke. Smaller break rooms aren't going to be able to fill this anymore and are already advertising new / more affordable products (Spectra, Court Kings, even Mosaic). Plat and LSC will probably push on but the participation is going to get thinner and thinner. We're only at 15/99 Zions on the tracker, my guess is we don't hit 50 until Fall, if that. Whoever is holding all the inventory going to try and maintain this pricing forever?
One more update on the NT case breaks:
Opening Weekend (6/15) // Week 2 (6/22) // Week 3 (6/29)
Platinum: 30 // 51 // 60 (only 4 more up, plus a serial # and a random)
Layton: 23 // 36 // 41 (only selling 1 serial # and 1 tiered random team now)
Jaspys: 7 // 8 // 8 (no more for sale)
Mojo: 11 // 15 // 18 (only a 2 box serial # for sale)

Momentum is gone. I think it's been said all along, but this was priced way too high. The belief that there is infinite money out there from idiots / degenerates is simply not true. Good luck to all those sitting on tens of thousands of dollars of this product who were hoping to pass it off to someone else. I'm sure there are buyers out there but doesn't seem like it's going to be easy to move volume
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