[missedthedrop]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Small modification to the above because it's not as precise as it could be:

Megas - 5 chromes/box, 1 of those being a chrome parallel
Blasters - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Hangers - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Fat Packs - 1 chrome/pack, no guarantees of a chrome parallel

Autos are also present, if you do hit an auto it replaces a chrome, only part I'm not sure of is whether the auto replaces a chrome parallel or just takes a chrome spot.

I understand the limits of this if you're not buying at MSRP, but this means $ to MSRP to hit one chrome: megas - $10, blasters - $10, hangers - $5, fat pack - $5

Now I'm going to extrapolate some secondary market prices, I think this is pretty generous as I've bought below all these prices mostly last weekend after the Friday Walmart dump:

Megas - $200
Blasters - $60
Hangers - $50
Fat Packs - $20

This means for equivalent $600 spent (so we have round numbers), number of chromes pulled: 3 megas - 15, 10 blasters - 20, 12 hangers - 24, 30 fat packs - 30

Now rookies per format which I've posted before:

megas - ~70 rookies (mostly 2 vets and 3 rookies per pack however some 4-5 rookie packs so let's go with ~70)
blaster - same as mega format, 40% of size and 40% of price (MSRP)
hanger - 18-22 rookies
fat pack - 8-12 rookies

This means at MSRP, for every $100 spent, number of rookies produced: megas - 140, blasters - 140, hanger - 200, fat pack - 200

You can do the same secondary market analysis as above but this is why I've basically criticized anyone who keeps pumping megas, how rare bronze/teal are vs red/green etc. unless you can show me data

Now few notes:

1. While a single blaster/hanger/fat pack does not guarantee a chrome parallel like a mega, from what I've tracked it's not that far off from the return on the mega which is 1/$50box. Especially if you're paying $200+ a mega, buy $200 of any of the other SKUs and you'll be just as fine on chrome parallels
2. As I said, the autos confuse me as it's very important I think whether it's replacing a chrome or a chrome parallel. Replacing a chrome parallel is really unfortunate because the auto checklist is trash and you'd much rather have a chrome parallel
3. I haven't noticed silvers popping up more/less in ratio in any format compared to the SKU exclusive colors (like a bronze, teal, etc). The problem is chrome parallels in general are so rare it's hard to get a good sample size of this because you can rip thousands in product especially at secondary market prices and only pull a couple
4. While fat packs by data are the best SKU, I don't know if pack searching is possible but it's a fear with fat packs unlike the other 3. For what it's worth probably because i got lucky, paper card quality surprisingly has been the best for me out of the fat packs I've bought
5. I've been consistently saying hangers > fat packs are the way to go as a result, but most importantly these two are the very clear winners over megas and blasters which don't come close at MSRP or secondary market value
6. You can pull numbered in retail, I've seen blue /99 and red /149 pulled and 502 frank I believe pulled a Giannis gold /10 in his latest video

I dont think I pulled a chrome parallel in my MEGA that I opened, got the 5 chromes, just no parallel to that and no auto.
Bad box or just that similar feeling of the panini curse: "on averaged".

My typical feeling when opening panini products is also "nothing is guaranteed."
Twas still a fun rip.