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FarmchairQB · 08-31-2020, 02:32 PM

Newcomer to BO, nice to meet everyone. I just discovered this thread last week and I'm so happy it exists. I've since since spent hours down the rabbit hole. It's cool to see how friendly everyone is, whether you're an expert or n00b, have a stacked Luka collection or a modest one, etc. Feels like everybody is just rooting for the same thing.

For me, I was fortunate enough to attend a Mavs/Warriors game last year where Luka hung like 30 points on my Dubs in the first half like it was nothing, and I was hooked. Over the next month I broke the bank to buy a few of his numbered cards, with little to know knowledge about the industry other than a belief that this kid was going to be singularly special. For my first purchase, I grossly overpaid for a a Blue RC Prizm PSA 10 ($9k in late Nov) - last night I had a good laugh reading posts on this thread from that night of my purchase, where people discussed the overpayment and wondered if the winning bid was even real. I guess it's easy for me to laugh about now given what Luka (and that card) have done since then. At around the same time I picked up a 2018 Flawless Vertical RPA and an Orange RC Prizm, which is where my small collection now stands.

Anyway, I have a question about the 2018 Flawless RPAs (technically not an RPA, I know). Try as I might, I've had a hard time getting a handle on how these 2018 Flawless RPAs are valued. A few of them have sold recently at vastly different price points. First, a non-graded Ruby Vertical /15 for $50k, having been bid up from 22k in the final seconds. Then, a non-graded Emerald Horizontal Star Swatch /5 for $75k, bid up from 50k in the final seconds. Then, a BGS 9.5 Ruby Horizontal /15 for $15k. And finally, a BGS 9.5 Base /25 Patch Auto for $26k.

Does anybody have a good model on how to understand value among these Flawless RPAs? I know that these cards are both beautiful and rare, which elevates personal preference as a factor and partially accounts for the the massive variance we see in prices. Based on previous threads and the recent market behavior, this is my best guess:
- Emerald > Gold > Ruby, mostly due to scarcity but perhaps also due to visual appeal
- Vertical > Horizontal
- Bigger patches > smaller patches
- PSA/BGS 9/9.5/10 > Sealed Panini Holder, but this distinction is much smaller than you might expect. So unless you're pretty certian the card will be graded Gem Mint, best not to break the Panini seal

Anything I'm missing? Thanks in advance for the guidance, and for having me in the forum!

08-31-2020, 02:32 PM	#12154
FarmchairQB Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Menlo Park, CA Posts: 64	Newcomer to BO, nice to meet everyone. I just discovered this thread last week and I'm so happy it exists. I've since since spent hours down the rabbit hole. It's cool to see how friendly everyone is, whether you're an expert or n00b, have a stacked Luka collection or a modest one, etc. Feels like everybody is just rooting for the same thing. For me, I was fortunate enough to attend a Mavs/Warriors game last year where Luka hung like 30 points on my Dubs in the first half like it was nothing, and I was hooked. Over the next month I broke the bank to buy a few of his numbered cards, with little to know knowledge about the industry other than a belief that this kid was going to be singularly special. For my first purchase, I grossly overpaid for a a Blue RC Prizm PSA 10 ($9k in late Nov) - last night I had a good laugh reading posts on this thread from that night of my purchase, where people discussed the overpayment and wondered if the winning bid was even real. I guess it's easy for me to laugh about now given what Luka (and that card) have done since then. At around the same time I picked up a 2018 Flawless Vertical RPA and an Orange RC Prizm, which is where my small collection now stands. Anyway, I have a question about the 2018 Flawless RPAs (technically not an RPA, I know). Try as I might, I've had a hard time getting a handle on how these 2018 Flawless RPAs are valued. A few of them have sold recently at vastly different price points. First, a non-graded Ruby Vertical /15 for $50k, having been bid up from 22k in the final seconds. Then, a non-graded Emerald Horizontal Star Swatch /5 for $75k, bid up from 50k in the final seconds. Then, a BGS 9.5 Ruby Horizontal /15 for $15k. And finally, a BGS 9.5 Base /25 Patch Auto for $26k. Does anybody have a good model on how to understand value among these Flawless RPAs? I know that these cards are both beautiful and rare, which elevates personal preference as a factor and partially accounts for the the massive variance we see in prices. Based on previous threads and the recent market behavior, this is my best guess: - Emerald > Gold > Ruby, mostly due to scarcity but perhaps also due to visual appeal - Vertical > Horizontal - Bigger patches > smaller patches - PSA/BGS 9/9.5/10 > Sealed Panini Holder, but this distinction is much smaller than you might expect. So unless you're pretty certian the card will be graded Gem Mint, best not to break the Panini seal Anything I'm missing? Thanks in advance for the guidance, and for having me in the forum!