Quote:
Originally Posted by jfan2024
Hmm..you might be right as I can't definitively say otherwise. This was before I actually kept notes on box breaks. I broke a couple cases at a $400/case buy-in so this was before I even bothered keeping track like I have to now with current prices. Could've sworn it was 1 rookie holo/box though. The pink packs I remember some boxes where I'd get 2 rookie pinks in a pack and none in the other and then some boxes 1 in each but I recall getting 2/box on average.
Either way, if you assume Luka base PSA 9 - $300, PSA 10 - $850; Doncic holo PSA 9 - $2200, PSA 10 - $6500; Luka pink PSA 9 - $600, PSA 10 - $2000; and then a 50/50 shot at PSA 9 vs 10 fresh out the box:
On a 20-box case of the 42s, you'd average about 3 Luka base (7 base rookies/box x 20 boxes), let's give it a 1/3 chance of hitting his holo (15-20 rookie holos expected on a 50 card checklist), and a 4/5 chance you'll hit 1 of his pinks (~40 pinks expected on a 50 card checklist)
3 base expected value = $575 x 3 = $1725
33% holo expected value = $4450 x 1/3 = $1483
80% pink expected value = $1300 x 4/5 = $1040
Total expected value of Luka = $4,247 (excluding grading fees)
So roughly 40% of the $10k case price returned just on expected Luka before accounting for anything else. This is at current market price so assuming you don't even think Luka optic will go up at all. Either singles need to go down, or 18-19 optic 42s sealed wax (what OP was originally asking about) need to go up in price
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Another big factor is Luka autos. I watched one breaker break 6 cases in a row and each case had a Luka base auto. Of course I got in the next one and only got base cards but it's definitely worked out.