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Originally Posted by tyrith
I've gone through the numbers in other places - but there's literally zero precedent for where Makar's prices are at right now. Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman FWAs are selling for 70-80, and they have a pretty nice combo of Norris/Smythe trophies between them. Makar's FWA is going for roughly 5x that.
You might say that Makar is accumulating more points and getting more ice time than Hedman/Karlsson did in their first couple of seasons. That's true, but Makar's first season was his age 21 season, and the other two guys came in at 19. It's the perfect situation to give him an immediate bump early on. I don't think that necessarily translates to Makar getting 90 assists in a season two years from now.
And that's the rub - Makar is being priced like he's a generational talent as a defenseman. He's not quite the Connor McDavid of D-men, but I don't have any other good comps. Makar's prices are completely out of scale to his comps. He is going to have to be the best defenseman of the last 20 years to hold at this level - an absolutely electric player that is in the top 3 of the Norris every year for most of a decade.
Do I think that's impossible? No. And overall market rise will likely cushion whatever fall comes. But I find the likelihood that Makar and Quinn Hughes can stay THIS FAR ahead of the overall defenseman market to be vanishingly low, and expect their cards to be some of the lowest ROI players if you were to buy and hold for 5 years.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardJ
I hear ya! I know Makar is an absolute beast and comparing him to Heiskanen, Dahlin, Quinn and I'll even throw McAvoy in that mix, I like Makar the most. I just think his cards are overvalued looking at where defenseman are and have been in the past.
Erik Karlsson is maybe the best example for me. He was the best defenseman for almost a decade, exciting to watch and put up big offensive numbers, but even his card prices never really reached what high end forwards go for. I think EK65 only sits around $250-$300CDN for a PSA10
I could definitely be wrong and Makar could be the guy that helps push the Defensemen market really up there, but I think theres more hype around him right now and his value comes down to reality in a season or two, or until the new shiny defenseman comes in... and this 2021 draft class has a ton of them
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I'm not necessarily saying his Young Guns aren't over priced right now because I personally think many are, all I am saying, but didn't say it right the first time, is I don't think his hobby love is going to wane where he just becomes another obscure everyday defenseman.
And for what it is worth, I don't currently own a Young Gun of his.