Quote:
Originally Posted by cardfund
A couple of thoughts;
During peak it was probably 99% speculator to 1% Collector, as time goes by I think it's fair to say that ratio has decreased, to what extent I don't know but the mechanics for flipping have changed, leading to less opportunities.
As more collectors start building their portfolio we will start to see narratives about moments build that will drive demand. If you know someone (or yourself) that has a PC, they collect virtually everything of their player. They have a story behind every single item they own and why they like certain items. I think moments accentuate this greater than what a physical card can; think nostalgia and music. For example the Luka 3 against the Clippers in playoffs, most people can probably recall what they were doing the moment that shot went in and realise that it shot meant to his legacy.
Thinking about value and demand I have the following determinants of long-term demand, this is on an overall basis, there will be moments that skew to certain categories for whatever reason;
Player Popularity: This is the ultimate determinant of demand
Artistic Appeal: The 'eye' appeal of the moment
Scarcity: Print run
Significance: Something within the moment that holds importance
Two other determinants I have left out but could probably be included are price speculation and future utility.
When applying a weighting I have it something like this;
Player Popularity: 50%
Artistic Appeal: 20%
Scarcity: 20%
Significance:10%
Looking at those categories, an example of the 'perfect' moment ~ one that would score the highest mark for each category is the Lebron 'From the Top' Dunk. Currently $250k
Player Popularity: Lebron~ 5/5
Artistic Appeal: Beautiful dunk~ 5/5
Scarcity:Only 59 made~ 5/5
Significance: Paying homage to Kobe~ 5/5
Pretty obvious I suppose but change the player while leaving all other factors constant and the value drops significantly.
Other:
~ I can see a scenario whereby user generated showcases becomes its' own set. i.e all buzzer beaters. People collect this independent of Top Shot Challenges and player popularity.
~ Moments will eventually have some form of utility attached to them, excluding any game developed. This has big upside.
With these things in mind, that's how I am building my portfolio moving forward. Will use playoffs to generate a bit of extra capital by flipping.
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I think this is a generally solid breakdown. The only place where I differ is that I place a much bigger emphasis on significance. I think long-term there will be 1,000 cool LeBron moments and it will be difficult to differentiate them. But there will still only be one LeBron Debut moment. I've been focusing on collecting Debut moments of players I like.
One moment I've been targeting pretty heavily is the Trae Young Debut moment. It's not just his debut, it's also the first moment ever minted on Top Shot. A little wrinkle that isn't present in physical cards, but it will always be first on the blockchain.