Quote:
Originally Posted by Silent George
He's been incredible in WAR for how small his sample size is, for sure. 2.5fWAR in 44 games is amazing. Works out to a 10 WAR season. But the point for that is that it's a small sample size. Mike Trout has had 2 10 WAR seasons in his career, and that's historic. There are 54 batting seasons ever where someone got 10WAR and Babe has 6 of them. So it's not unheard of, but unless the claims are that we have a 3B version of Mike Trout here, there is some major mean regression that has to happen. Especially when health is considered into the cumulative stat, and his hasn't been good. 2-3 WAR is going to be pretty fair for this season.
But no, I don't mean to call you out like this - he looks like he has a great glove - and he will absolutely not be a 4-6 WAR player on defense alone. This isn't using data, it's inventing it. 14% of WAR is allotted to defense. Ozzie Smith, in his very best defensive season, earned 4 WAR from defense, and .8 of that was positional adjustment - and 3B has a MUCH smaller adjustment. I'd consider it FAR more likely he's a 10 WAR player than he is a4-6 WAR defensive player. Brooks Robinson, the gold standard for 3B, peaked with 3.6 defensive WAR in his best season.
The thing about using data - is if you're going to have a civilized discussion about something - and I hope this remains this way - where people are open-minded and willing to accept their mind might be changed, then data has to be used. Otherwise everything is an eyeball test. There's no disputing. There's no facts to back anything up. it's just "looks good to me" vs "doesn't look good to me"
WAR, as a metric, kind of sucks. But it's the best we have. I liken it to the Churchill quote "democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others"
That's WAR to me. It's deeply flawed, but it absolutely crushes traditional stats like batting average.
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To be clear- I wasn’t stating 4-6 WAR on defense alone!! My intention was to state that because of his defense it will drive him to a 4-6 WAR alone if he even hits remotely like he has through his career so far in MLB. I understand he won’t get 4-6 just on defense.
Total WAR of 4-6 each of next 3 years, I would bet big $$$ that happens if he even plays 150 games per season. That’s the point I was making. Let alone 2-3 WAR