Quote:
Originally Posted by jsatx
That's an interesting way to look at it. I would have considered the population to be the supply, though I guess some of those aren't available. So what do you consider the supply of the card I use as my avatar? It's a PSA 10 2004 Topps Molina Gold /2004, pop 13 last I checked. Do you consider the supply to be 2004, 13, 1 (the number currently for sale on eBay at a ridiculous price), another number?
|
I look at how many appear to be in the marketplace, graded or ungraded. Right now, population of graded cards, especially with ultra-modern, are artificially low because of the grading market. The raw card populations need to be considered when I buy slabs. If I can buy a modernish raw card for $20 and the PSA 10 version is $500 because of "low pops," I stay away. I have some of these types of cards and just keep them in my PC but will eventually trade them. The Jordan SP1 is one of these cards. A lot of Kobe rookies are like this as well.
Then you have low pop cards that no one cares about and have low demand. Checking sales is important as well. How often they sell and how many are available. The 1996 Topps NBA 50th cards are a great example of extremely low population and low demand. They are much lower population than Topps Chrome, won't hulk, but have no hobby love. Even raw, some of these are extremely hard to find, much easier to find the Topps Chrome version.
Populations at PSA would only mean something to me if it was known that 90% of the cards were graded by them. You can't ignore the raw market. Numbered cards are a different beast all together. I don't get why a card /10 is so much more expensive if it grades a PSA 10 versus another that gets a PSA 9. There are only 10 of them anyways.
Then you have vintage sets like 1951 Topps Red/Blue Backs where people pay $20 for a creased card and won't pay $50 for a PSA 6 card. You actually lose money with grading fees by grading cards that are pretty rare.