Quote:
Originally Posted by pewe
Amazing quick multiple for all who bought at $350! Congrats!
So… I’m embarrassed to say that the lack of interesting new players over the last year meant I didn’t follow 2020 product at all. And now I’m finding myself back wandering in the woods without a compass when considering what I enjoy collecting for Wander.
For those of you who are big on First edition (or I’m cool w/detractors input as well)… what do you think is the catalyst that gives you confidence this goes the route of Sapphire Edition?
I’m once burned, and twice shy, after seeing the staying power of other similar parallel SP online exclusive products, like 3D and mini and Ben baller, etc.
For instance, I’m still kicking myself for buying the PSA10 Acuna bats down 3D when it cost more than a series 2 bats down… the 3D has only appreciated modestly, whereas bats down is up like 5x. Same could be said for all other product not Sapphire 
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It's tough to compare Sapphire to 1st Ed since one is chrome-based while the other is paper.
That said, I think that Sapphire's rise was partly fueled by its multi-sport appeal, meaning that Cracked Ice - from my understanding (I only collect baseball and hockey) - is popular in Panini designs. Plus, it's a parallel of their flagship chrome brand - the single chrome baseball brand found most in American homes.
Also, originally, Sapphire released as a very limited PR set. While the configuration has changed over the years, I think its initial debut as a limited chrome product coupled with an already popular design fanned the flames just enough to get it rolling.
Then, Ohtani and Acuna hit as PR skyrocketed, so it made the higher PR feel OK and acceptable. After three successful years, it's a staple, at that point. Topps no longer has to promote it, they just need to keep from shooting themselves in the foot - which we know could still happen at any point.
However, I think they're paying close attention to the market reaction. 2020 TCS and TCUS were horribly priced. They came back and lowered the 2021 TCS price enough to make people feel like Topps came to their senses and at least gave people a solid reason to still buy, despite what most feel is a weak checklist again.
So...now back to 1st Ed.
I think most of us realize it was born out of necessity, almost. But Topps stumbled upon a new parallel that was attracting significant attention. It's been almost two years since we first saw 1st Ed and it still seems to be holding value and relevance.
However, Bowman isn't as widespread as Topps Flagship. And they still haven't found a staple parallel for their paper flagship. I'm surprised it took them a whole nother year to try this.
Why will it work?
So far, it seems the market can still absorb/accept new products. I think this window is fast closing, though, and maybe Topps sees it that way too, or maybe not.
1st Ed has enough of a foothold within the market between its successful Bowman releases and Panini's FOTL - again, not a basketball/football guy, so going off what I've read - to gain traction with flagship.
I think the slew of parallels - regardless of how much manufactured scarcity gets bashed within collecting circles - is what practically guarantees Topps Flagship 1st Ed will be a success. They've got a chance to make 1st Ed the most desired flagship parallel, especially since other attempts have largely failed.