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Originally Posted by tonorator
we are "down" from a massive spike that has occurred over the last 2 years. in the context of the last 5 or 10 years, card price indexes would still reflect a very, very nice appreciation performance, with card prices doubling, tripling, etc. still.
this is more about a recovery from an abnormal spike/bubble vs. any kind of significant shift in the hobby. compared to the market, it is a short-term price correction, but the longer term investor is still doing very well.
this is astronomically true for the prospecting layer, which has become the equivalent of penny stocks and IPO gold-mining.
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The first two paragraphs are correct, but the third is patently false. Prospects are like stock options, so time is a factor. That is the missing link between prospect prices and established players prices. When I line the prospects up side by side vs the young MLB stars, the prices all make sense...even before I back out the value the market is paying for age. Once I do that it is pretty close to a list of HOF likelyhood, weighted towards batting and recent production.
I know you want an opportunity to buy the next Soto or even Trout for $100, but that just isn't going to happen. There has to be risk in the price falling or the price isn't high enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonorator
yes, just like stock investors are when they overinvest in high risk stocks or IPO plays. if they can time if perfectly, they can get a nice payoff, but if not, they indeed get flattened. the window to profit on a prospect is getting smaller and smaller and hot prospects from just a few months ago have already faded away.
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This comes down to production. The guys who are producing (pretty much just J-Rod) are up. The guys who are doing OK (Witt, Gorman, Alek Thomas) are down, but up relative to the market. The guys who are doing poorly or injured are down a lot. The guys still in the minors that are rising up the list are up. If they're falling they are down. Prices follow production.
On top of that, the biggest culprit for the downturn this year is the young MLB stars.
On top of that, the guys who are going to be the top prospects next year have yet to reach 75% of the price of the top prospects of last year. Four of the best investments right now, IMO, would be the top 4 prospects on my board. That said, the conventional wisdom used to be buy prospects in July, so maybe it shouldn't surprise me.