Quote:
Originally Posted by Promethius88
Just to put this into perspective for everyone, using the $150 prize as your example is a little skewed. It is one of the worst odds in the game.
Odds for $100 win is 1 in 33.92 and even going higher, the $200 prize is 1 in 285.44 and the $500 prize is 1 in 491.42.
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Correct!
Odds for the $100 prize is 34 X $20 per ticket = $680, on average, to win that prize.
Odds for the $200 prize is 286 X $20 per ticket = $5,720, on average, to win that prize.
2022 Flawless at $10,000 per box, sold in 32 slots by team = $312.50 per slot. Round that up for breakers to cover their time and shipping. And say $350 for a random team break.
32 teams, and 10 cards per box. 1 in 3 odds to win a team.
Assuming each box will only yield 50% of value ($5,000), based on the cost of the box itself. An average card should be worth $500 ($5K ÷ 10).
That is 1 in 3 odds, for a $500 prize. But an entry cost of $350. $350 X 3 = $1050, for a $500 gain. That is an expected loss of $550, or roughly half your money.
Your scratch off is 1 in 4 odds, for a prize average of $43. But at an entry cost of $20. 4 x $20 = $80, for a $43 gain. That is an expected loss of $37, or roughly half your money.
But, you have 25% better odds of hitting in the break, VS a scratch off. Even if both (on average) are still losing propositions, with an average expected loss of 50% of the money invested.