Quote:
Originally Posted by mossoholic
The average box return right now on football hobby is under 10%. Breaks are going to be less because the overall cost is higher. Flawless football right here you could easily open 100 boxes and lose on them all. There will be countless boxes with under $1000 worth of cards. There are many other high end products with no monster hits, like Noir, Impeccable, and Immaculate FB, you could open countless cases and lose on every single one. Right now singles compared to wax are the most out of sync they have been in history. Again, at least a couple years ago singles were very high and there were products with $1 million+ hits. 2022 football right now there is 1 card worth over $100k. It's already been pulled. Nothing even remotely close to a million dollars.
If you think you're right and Im wrong just know you are in the vast minority. I don't think you're going to get many people to agree with you that most football box breaks aren't 90%+ losers. As to why people keep buying in. There are too many stupid people in this world. I had a breaker I've bought from and sold to tell me recently exact quote, " I'd say 1% of the ppl that join my breaks are ahead." 1%. He was serious.
I guess I could be wrong on the scratch off numbers but i thought most of the ones I used to get as gifts said 70-75% payment on them. Regardless, even if its half that that still way better than breaks and there is a monster hit. I could be wrong but pretty sure on scratchers when you win you at worst break even.
Please tell me more casino odds. I only worked in one for close to 11 years. But Im sure you know more on that as well. Why would people not just play casino games or better yet bet sports games if you like sports/sports cards? Way better odds and immediate payment. The reason is because there are people that are actually that stupid that would spend $1000 a week on breaks versus $1000 betting games or in the casino. The dumbest people I've ever met are people that gamble in this "hobby".
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To be clear, you said breaks "pay out 5-10%". That is an average loss of 90-95%. Now, if you said 90% of boxes will be a loss, I'd agree with that. Most boxes have always been a loss leader. Now more so than prepandemic.
Its a matter of what those loses are. Id say most will lose half their money on a break. Which mitigates their losses, as they are sharing the risk VS return with others. If someone were to open their own box, at todays prices. I'd say that is closer to a 75% loss. More so on higher end , and less so on lower end product.
But even with all of that, 50-75% loss. Its still no where near 90-95% loss. Again, on average. If boxes/breaks only had a 5% return, no one would be doing either.
Playing casino games and betting sports are still a loss leader as well. And people still do all of them, for the same reason. Everyone hopes to hit big. But those arent 90-95% losses either.
And yes, I might know more about gambling and odds than you working in a casino. Google Vegas Grid Report. That was my side hustle, gambling coast to coast and blogging on casinos, games and comps. Ive been invited to the Global Gaming Expo many times, as an industry consultant.