Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5
I don't think this is true. Who are some of the biggest hobby darlings of the 90s? Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, even Barry Bonds. For every Derek Jeter who built a hobby legacy on championships, there is a Ken Griffey Jr. who didn't. The reality is, there are many things that go into a lasting legacy in the hobby, and championships are just one of many ways to do so. Interestingly, Griffey's career is very similar to Trout's. Both were the undisputed kings of a decade in the hobby, endearing their legend on a whole generation of collectors. Then they faded with injury down the stretch. Griffey stuff could be had cheap in the late 00s. Now that those who grew up collecting him in the 90s are older, his stuff is absolutely the most collectible of the 90s for every year except 96 (where the Jeter rookie year stuff reigns). I foresee a similar outcome for Trout. His stuff will dip as his career winds down, but once those who were kids in the 2010s grow up and get back into collecting, his stuff will rise to the top just like Griffey's did.
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This absolutely will not happen for several key reasons -- I can guarantee it. Griffey and Trout are not caparable. Griffey, MLB and baseball cards were all popular with boys in general in the 90s. The modern game, its stars, and baseball cards are not popular like they were 30 years ago. Trout will not engender the nostalgia that Griffey has.
The game and the card market was also very different in the mid-to-late 90s. Griffey had a limited supply of auto cards during that time -- exclusive contract with Upper Deck -- and inserts were a focal point in the hobby. Open licensing allowed multiple manufacturers to produce unique and diverse cards. It's the total opposite now with Trout and the ultra modern market, with autos in very large supply and ugly and bland parallels dominating the market.
Trout's card prices already peaked during the bubble. Those prices will never be matched again, adjusted for inflation. Griffey's card prices had a resurgence during the bubble and peaked again. But it was driven by unprecedented factors that won't ever happen again.