[erock28]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

A Word Of Caution

One of our main themes is how overpriced the singles are at release relative to older products. I now have some data on this topic. These are the guys I followed from last year's Bowman Chrome. I had a pretty short list because of the high release prices for prospects relative even to that year's Bowman. Numbers are rounded heavily. Here's how bad it was;

Rayner Arias, down 50%-Was injured to start the year, then didn't play great when he was in there. Frankly, given what you're about to see below, I'm surprised he's only down this much.

Joendry Vargas, down 50% or more-Didn't get the bump to full season ball, but hit .303/.406/.493. This one went as well as could have been reasonably expected

Alfredo Duno, down 70%-Was off to a solid start for an 18 year old in A-ball, then got injured.

Brando Mayea, down 80%-An ISO of .040 is going to sting. This was a losing bet no matter the year the card was released, but being a new release threw gas on the fire.

Welbyn Francisca, up 10%-This is the most damning of all. He hit .327/.411/.474 including getting the bump and performing in A-ball, far exceeding expectation...for a measly 10% gain.

I don't remember when BC released last year, but I'm pretty sure this isn't even release week pricing. It was probably a few weeks after. According to my spreadsheet, prices from last year were taken on "10/XX".

Other guys I have notes on from January didn't do any better.

Lastly, it's too bad that Sebastian Walcott didn't have an auto. He has rocketed up the prospect list and will likely be top 5 overall on my list. Would have loved to have a starting point from last October. Looking at his non-auto /499 it looks like there is little to no price appreciation from last October (and down from release!).

My conclusion is I am going to ignore this product (for the most part) until next June.

Would be interesting if you had done similar work on the 2021 BC class. Cristian Hernandez, Wilman Diaz, Luis Rodriguez, Pedro Pineda...and MANY more guys selling at $50+ for base autos out of the gate. None of the four mentioned have made it above high-A...three whole years later. Bowman Chrome is a lottery ticket at $100 a box, at current prices it's about as bad as it gets.