Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta
Even back in 2019 bowman draft, most would argue Adley Rutschman has met his lofty expectations but his autos are going for 50% of what they sold for upon release.
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Adley was a pretty good example of someone who was always going to be more baseball good than hobby good. His career triple crown per 162 is only .263/21/79. That's great for a catcher, especially one that is Gold Glove caliber and walks a lot (OPS+ of 123), but that's not going to cut it for the hobby in the short run.
My first entry in the Price Index for Adley is November, 2020. He's down about 25-30% since that point (and currently "cold"), but the market is down over 50% since that time. I'd say he's held up very well, even better than I would have expected. I still think he's more likely to fall than he is to rise going forward.
The other (and main) counterpoint is, Gunnar and Carroll have seen significant appreciation during that same time frame. So while Adley was overvalued, there are examples of players who have hit big. Last year's Bowman Chrome's hits are up ~10-20% at most.
Don't get me wrong. If any of these guys get themselves in the MVP conversation, their cards will rise. The warning is, that will be after a precipitous fall. Just wait until June/July of next year. Even if they're in the mix for #1 overall prospect, the price won't be up
that much. Case in point, Sebastian Walcott.