Quote:
Originally Posted by seanrs1
I think you are wrong about what future expectations are priced into Ohtani card prices. And I can prove it if you go back through the thread. After Ohtani was injured 8n 2023 his cards significantly dropped. When he signed with the Dodgers they got a slight boost and then leveled off. When the Ippei scandal broke his cards took another dive. After it was clear Ohtani had no involvement (but was playing at an MVP pace) many of his cards were down 50%. At that time my expectation was he would still be a HOF eventually pitch again and still be the best player in the game. With all of that baked in prices were extremely low and I was the most vocal on the board that his prices did not make any sense. RC supply was not going up and demand should always be growing.
After 50/50 prices jumped. But after winning the WS prices didn't really move and have been very steady throughout the off season.
I think his current prices are the new floor unless he gets hurt and is out for the season. There is plenty of room for his cards to go up. Returning to be a dominant pitcher, winning MVP and another WS will boost his prices and separate him from all his contemporaries. The new argument will be Ohtani vs. Bonds as the best modern player. Only it won't matter because Ohtani will have way more demand due to his global appeal.
The guy is in his prime, on the best team and already off to a hot start. High-end Ohtani cards are as good as gold. So are old style autos through 2020/21. Low to mid end RC will still go up as demand is only going to increase over time.
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Don't forget this is a hobby. I would not call any card prices of any player on the planet at it's "floor." In fact, I wouldn't even do that for any commodity.
And maybe you haven't been paying attention to larger economic factors that could blow up the economy in a few quarters?
Feel free to invest in cards. Many Ohtani cards are potentially good investments. But the blanket statement of Ohtani cards being at their "floor" is going to leave you financially wrecked if you're doing this for investment purposes. The floor level for a regular Dodger Ohtani autos is not $2k like it is right now either. I'll die on that hill.