Developing Power

Zavey1275 · 02-14-2021, 02:11 PM

I’ve always been a stats guy when prospecting. I love looking for guys that get on base consistently especially those contact orientated guys. Unfortunately as most know this doesn’t always sell. My question to the people that have been doing this for a while is have you ever seen prospects above let’s say 22 just develop power? Some of the players I’ve been reading about are reported to have changed their swing and developed more power but does that mean just a couple more bombs each year? Sorry if this is confusing I just didn’t know how to ask what I wanted to ask. Thanks for any help.

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pewe · 02-14-2021, 02:13 PM

Ortiz? Cruz?

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Biohazarddfl · 02-14-2021, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zavey1275

I’ve always been a stats guy when prospecting. I love looking for guys that get on base consistently especially those contact orientated guys. Unfortunately as most know this doesn’t always sell. My question to the people that have been doing this for a while is have you ever seen prospects above let’s say 22 just develop power? Some of the players I’ve been reading about are reported to have changed their swing and developed more power but does that mean just a couple more bombs each year? Sorry if this is confusing I just didn’t know how to ask what I wanted to ask. Thanks for any help.

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Arrozerena recently figured out how to sell out for power and live with a high K rate. He always had projected power, but not like we saw in 2020. It can definitely happen, but its hard to predict.

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Zavey1275 · 02-14-2021, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Arrozerena recently figured out how to sell out for power and live with a high K rate. He always had projected power, but not like we saw in 2020.

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I haven’t even looked at arozarena’s stats but was he not a power guy in the minors? The guys I’ve been watching are like 2-3 homers a year guys.

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Biohazarddfl · 02-14-2021, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zavey1275

I haven’t even looked at arozarena’s stats but was he not a power guy in the minors? The guys I’ve been watching are like 2-3 homers a year guys.

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Got it. As far as the guys hitting 2-3 HR a year, I'd say that they are a long shot to just develop 30hr power, unless their hit tool is off the charts and they can sell out for power.

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dodgerfanjohn · 02-14-2021, 02:29 PM

Justin Turner and Max Muncy.

Max had a big power year one year in the minors and not otherwise. Turner never had shown power. He’s a big guy, but power swing is about more than just strength.

Zavey1275 · 02-14-2021, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Got it. As far as the guys hitting 2-3 HR a year, I'd say that they are a long shot to just develop 30hr power, unless their hit tool is off the charts and they can sell out for power.

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Makes sense. Thanks

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waluwhute · 02-14-2021, 04:33 PM

The juiced baseball in the majors helped some guys. MLB said they are changing it again for this season though. We'll have to see what happens this season.

mcgoo2 · 02-14-2021, 04:37 PM

Francisco Lindor was supposed to be a contact hitter with elite defense coming up the system and now he's hitting 30+ HRs a year.

He was projected to be more of a 10-15 HR kind of player. 2-3, though? I can't remember guys with that little power all of a sudden cranking out 30 in the majors.

UCCF · 02-14-2021, 05:35 PM

The one I can remember from the 1980s was Kirby Puckett. He had 4 HRs total in his first 2 years, then 31 in his 3rd year and pretty consistently 15-25 for the rest of his career.

Sandberg was the same way. Single digit HRs for his first 2 years, then steadily increasing up to the point where he actually led the league one year.

And I'll give you one more - Don Mattingly. He was never a power hitter in the minors, or in his first season with New York. After that he was a pretty consistent slugger up until the injuries to his back killed his power.

It's such a different game now, I don't know that you can really draw good parallels there except to say that it does happen at times. Of course, you're also talking about 2 HOFers and a guy who would likely be in but for injuries, so maybe all you need to do is look at prospects, pick out the Hall of Famers, and go with them.

SDcardguy24 · 02-14-2021, 05:53 PM

Recent example that comes to mind is Jose Ramirez

Zavey1275 · 02-14-2021, 06:11 PM

Is there any type of multiplier you would guess off of the top of your head because of juiced balls or just off of a player’s gained strength

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SpecialFNK · 02-14-2021, 06:26 PM

I don't know if the same, but Yelich didn't have monster power before. he had 21 and 18 HR at age 23 and 24. then he had 36 and 44 HR at age 25 and 26.

wcardguy · 02-14-2021, 06:32 PM

Power definitely develops. Plate discipline much more rarely. When they say "if he could just develop better plate discipline" like it's nothing, 9 times out of 10 it's best to run away screaming. It ain't no small thing.

Skipscards · 02-14-2021, 06:56 PM

Yes. All of the time. Players that “develop power” can most often be found by looking at the conditions of where they play, their age relative to said conditions, and their double totals.

66_Fiat · 02-14-2021, 07:02 PM

JD Martinez came around as he got older. I'm not sure of his minors power numbers though.

Triple B · 02-14-2021, 07:09 PM

Jose Bautista is that guy. Bounced around a few teams, was traded to Toronto in a nondescript deal, made and adjustment to his swing and set it off.

UCCF · 02-14-2021, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Yes. All of the time. Players that “develop power” can most often be found by looking at the conditions of where they play, their age relative to said conditions, and their double totals.

Doubles has always been the benchmark when scouts talk about who they think will/won't develop power. The theory is that extra-base hit power becomes HR power as hitters learn to elevate the ball a bit more and get a little stronger.

It doesn't always work out, but picking out minor leaguers who seem to hit a lot of 2B/3B would probably give you a higher % of hits on guys who ultimately become HR hitters at the big league level. A guy with good contact who hits a lot of line drives that become doubles in the minors is a good candidate to pick it up in the majors.

But agreed on plate discipline - for every one guy who learns to take a walk at the big leagues and not chase breaking balls in the dirt, there are 50 "next big things" who couldn't do it, hit .188 for a few years, and ended up playing in Japan.

Skipscards · 02-14-2021, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 66_Fiat

JD Martinez came around as he got older. I'm not sure of his minors power numbers though.

Good example of what I was talking about...his first full season in the minors he hit 18 HRs with 40 doubles.

BeastMode27 · 02-14-2021, 07:14 PM

Jose Altuve. If you are a fan of Nick Madrigal, you are hoping that happens. Would have to change his swing completely though.

02-14-2021, 02:11 PM	#1
Zavey1275 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Illinois Posts: 332 midwestsourcing1	Developing Power I’ve always been a stats guy when prospecting. I love looking for guys that get on base consistently especially those contact orientated guys. Unfortunately as most know this doesn’t always sell. My question to the people that have been doing this for a while is have you ever seen prospects above let’s say 22 just develop power? Some of the players I’ve been reading about are reported to have changed their swing and developed more power but does that mean just a couple more bombs each year? Sorry if this is confusing I just didn’t know how to ask what I wanted to ask. Thanks for any help. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-14-2021, 04:33 PM	#8
waluwhute Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Saco, Maine Posts: 1,720 GreekysCards waluwhute	The juiced baseball in the majors helped some guys. MLB said they are changing it again for this season though. We'll have to see what happens this season. __________________ MySlabs username=dionysiosarabatzis

02-14-2021, 04:37 PM	#9
mcgoo2 Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 2,542 mcgoo202	Francisco Lindor was supposed to be a contact hitter with elite defense coming up the system and now he's hitting 30+ HRs a year. He was projected to be more of a 10-15 HR kind of player. 2-3, though? I can't remember guys with that little power all of a sudden cranking out 30 in the majors. __________________ Always looking for Minnesota Twins cards/memorabilia!! My Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/151462415@N06/albums Last edited by mcgoo2; 02-14-2021 at 04:39 PM.

02-14-2021, 05:35 PM	#10
UCCF Member Join Date: Feb 2019 Location: San Francisco Posts: 1,181 UCCF	The one I can remember from the 1980s was Kirby Puckett. He had 4 HRs total in his first 2 years, then 31 in his 3rd year and pretty consistently 15-25 for the rest of his career. Sandberg was the same way. Single digit HRs for his first 2 years, then steadily increasing up to the point where he actually led the league one year. And I'll give you one more - Don Mattingly. He was never a power hitter in the minors, or in his first season with New York. After that he was a pretty consistent slugger up until the injuries to his back killed his power. It's such a different game now, I don't know that you can really draw good parallels there except to say that it does happen at times. Of course, you're also talking about 2 HOFers and a guy who would likely be in but for injuries, so maybe all you need to do is look at prospects, pick out the Hall of Famers, and go with them. __________________ I (still) want your Rizzos

02-14-2021, 06:56 PM	#15
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 30,215 jlankf2 jmp4	Yes. All of the time. Players that “develop power” can most often be found by looking at the conditions of where they play, their age relative to said conditions, and their double totals. __________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

02-14-2021, 02:13 PM	#2
pewe Member Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 26,641	Ortiz? Cruz? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-14-2021, 02:29 PM	#6
dodgerfanjohn Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Torrance, CA Posts: 5,418 sternroolz	Justin Turner and Max Muncy. Max had a big power year one year in the minors and not otherwise. Turner never had shown power. He’s a big guy, but power swing is about more than just strength.

02-14-2021, 05:53 PM	#11
SDcardguy24 Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 9,262	Recent example that comes to mind is Jose Ramirez

02-14-2021, 06:11 PM	#12
Zavey1275 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Illinois Posts: 332 midwestsourcing1	Is there any type of multiplier you would guess off of the top of your head because of juiced balls or just off of a player’s gained strength Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-14-2021, 06:26 PM	#13
SpecialFNK Member Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 91	I don't know if the same, but Yelich didn't have monster power before. he had 21 and 18 HR at age 23 and 24. then he had 36 and 44 HR at age 25 and 26.

02-14-2021, 06:32 PM	#14
wcardguy Member Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 322	Power definitely develops. Plate discipline much more rarely. When they say "if he could just develop better plate discipline" like it's nothing, 9 times out of 10 it's best to run away screaming. It ain't no small thing.

02-14-2021, 07:02 PM	#16
66_Fiat Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Marysville, OH Posts: 3,168	JD Martinez came around as he got older. I'm not sure of his minors power numbers though. __________________ There is a difference between best hitter and best player. Paying nicely for 2013 and 2015 TTT Pujols "The Machine" patches!

02-14-2021, 07:09 PM	#17
Triple B Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Toronto Posts: 6,233	Jose Bautista is that guy. Bounced around a few teams, was traded to Toronto in a nondescript deal, made and adjustment to his swing and set it off. __________________ Wanted Dead or Alive! 1. 1997 Bowman's Best Jose Cruz, Jr Atomic Refractor Autograph 2. 1997 SPx Jose Cruz, Jr. Grand Finale /50

02-14-2021, 07:14 PM	#20
BeastMode27 Member Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 2,341	Jose Altuve. If you are a fan of Nick Madrigal, you are hoping that happens. Would have to change his swing completely though.