Break vs Buy: My 2022 Bowman Draft analysis

[Iiicalypso]

Having participated in a number of Houdini's 100 case breaks, generally around the lower end of the risk spectrum, I have always wondered whether I would have been better off just buying singles, as so many people counsel. Until now, though, I have been too lazy (and too incompetent) to actually do the math.

This year my auto spot was Henry Williams, and I had him in the 10 caser as well as both of the 50 case breaks. I admittedly (likely) overpaid, as I am willing to do so to get at least one of the auto spots of my Padres. At the same time, I was pretty lucky in what I ended up with for the spot, with a total of 32 autos (only 13 base) across the breaks, or about one every 3 1/2 cases. I paid a total of 510 dollars for the three breaks (not including the Paypal fees and shipping, since I didn't want to try and break it out from my chrome spots.

To analyze what the singles would have cost me on eBay, I did my best using 130point to check the average prices, both auction and BIN when possible, to get a ballpark idea of what the singles would have cost. I added 4 dollars for each card as an average shipping charge, and tallied up all the costs, and it came to about 481 dollars.

Obviously this is not an exact science; the price of singles will probably keep dropping as we get further away from the release day, at least until he does (or does not) prove himself to be a legitimate prospect. At the same time, it does not calculate the intangible entertainment value that the breaks themselves provided.

In the end, the difference of about 20 dollars is negligibile, so at least in this instance going the break route did not provide any penalty. I am curious if anybody else has done a similar evaluation, and if so, what your results were.

For the record, my autos were:

base: 13
refractor 499: 8
purple 250: 1
aqua lava 199: 1
blue 150: 1
blue wave 150: 2
green 99: 0
black 75: 2
speckle 71: 2
gold wave 50: 0
gold 50: 2
orange 25: 0

[rfgilles]

Nice write up. Less time involved than purchasing via the singles route.

I imagine breaks are the more expensive route for the higher profile prospects, but I have no data to back that up.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by Iiicalypso

Having participated in a number of Houdini's 100 case breaks, generally around the lower end of the risk spectrum, I have always wondered whether I would have been better off just buying singles, as so many people counsel. Until now, though, I have been too lazy (and too incompetent) to actually do the math.

This year my auto spot was Henry Williams, and I had him in the 10 caser as well as both of the 50 case breaks. I admittedly (likely) overpaid, as I am willing to do so to get at least one of the auto spots of my Padres. At the same time, I was pretty lucky in what I ended up with for the spot, with a total of 32 autos (only 13 base) across the breaks, or about one every 3 1/2 cases. I paid a total of 510 dollars for the three breaks (not including the Paypal fees and shipping, since I didn't want to try and break it out from my chrome spots.

To analyze what the singles would have cost me on eBay, I did my best using 130point to check the average prices, both auction and BIN when possible, to get a ballpark idea of what the singles would have cost. I added 4 dollars for each card as an average shipping charge, and tallied up all the costs, and it came to about 481 dollars.

Obviously this is not an exact science; the price of singles will probably keep dropping as we get further away from the release day, at least until he does (or does not) prove himself to be a legitimate prospect. At the same time, it does not calculate the intangible entertainment value that the breaks themselves provided.

In the end, the difference of about 20 dollars is negligibile, so at least in this instance going the break route did not provide any penalty. I am curious if anybody else has done a similar evaluation, and if so, what your results were.

For the record, my autos were:

base: 13
refractor 499: 8
purple 250: 1
aqua lava 199: 1
blue 150: 1
blue wave 150: 2
green 99: 0
black 75: 2
speckle 71: 2
gold wave 50: 0
gold 50: 2
orange 25: 0

The fact you hit almost 20 color including two golds and “broke even” shows the risk of these breaks.

[lemmer]

Originally Posted by notfast

The fact you hit almost 20 color including two golds and “broke even” shows the risk of these breaks.

Yeah that’s the first thing that popped into my head as well.

Also true that the entertainment adds value that doesn’t show up in the calculation.

[txrngr34]

I didn't keep record, but I have frequently eyeballed my Houdini break results with singles pricing.

My anecdotal findings for breaks in which I am within 20% of expected autos:

Around the time of release (after receiving package in hand), I've never "made" money, it's always a loss. Usually a nominal loss for the entertainment value of participating in a Mega break. A couple of breaks I did clearly overpay by over 50% market value but usually I'm pretty close - or better - in my valuations of spots. It's lack of color that will usually get me.

Here's the big caveat. If you presume a "loss" on a low- to mid-end spot AND did some research on the prospect(s) you buy into, in all likelihood you have a better than 50/50 shot at breaking even or making money by holding until the player heats up and gets some attention.

I buy into Houdini breaks because 1) I want that given product, 2) Houdini's the most trustworthy breaker on the planet, and 3) I enjoy the breaks for entertainment.

Anyone joining Mega breaks who has a high priority of hitting a monster or making money is likely going to be disappointed more often than not.

In the Bowman Chrome breaks, I hit a red shimmer auto of Christian Franklin along with decent overall quantity numbers closely in line with expected and was still at a "loss" of about 30%. But he was also my low-ish cost Cubs prospect target, so I anticipated overspending a bit on him knowing there are several other Cubs collectors that typically spend more than me on Cubs spots.

[ron169]

I will add in some key points that make the break a better investment than buying singles.
1. Possible you hit a super/red/orange which puts you into profit versus buying singles
2. Get the cards pack fresh. Houdini pulls card, sleeves it and ships it. Buying singles you have the chance that seller is only selling card because of a known imperfection that is causing them to sell on eBay.

[KhalDrogo]

The auto spots are nothing but a gamble before you even consider that nobody knows the SP autos when the spots are purchased.

The base spots are easy money if you realistically calculate EV and don’t pay more than you should. Problem is that pricing ran away from reality the last few years.

[BRob1]

people are adding in a value for the “entertainment factor” of participating in breaks… i would say there is also plenty of entertainment value in the singles aspect as well if you enjoy searching for cards, negotiating on price, trying to find steals which I’m sure a lot of us do.


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[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by BRob1

people are adding in a value for the “entertainment factor” of participating in breaks… i would say there is also plenty of entertainment value in the singles aspect as well if you enjoy searching for cards, negotiating on price, trying to find steals which I’m sure a lot of us do.


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While true, I think many enjoy the gambling aspect. I know I do.

I'm not a real life gambler but I enjoy that part of breaks when it comes to my hobby. So even when I don't do well, it's fun anticipating/waiting/watching for a hit. I only wish everyone would fully accept the risk going into these Mega breaks.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by txrngr34

While true, I think many enjoy the gambling aspect. I know I do.

I'm not a real life gambler but I enjoy that part of breaks when it comes to my hobby. So even when I don't do well, it's fun anticipating/waiting/watching for a hit. I only wish everyone would fully accept the risk going into these Mega breaks.

either way it boils down to prescribing a value to the time in which you are entertained. they both provide that.


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[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by notfast

The fact you hit almost 20 color including two golds and “broke even” shows the risk of these breaks.

Wouldn't you expect to hit 20 color in 100 case breaks?

[notfast]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Wouldn't you expect to hit 20 color in 100 case breaks?

No clue. Just shows how crazy the prices in those breaks are when you can’t break even buying one of the cheapest auto spots even after hitting that much color including 2 gold.

[UCCF]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Wouldn't you expect to hit 20 color in 100 case breaks?

I wouldn't. If you assume 24 autos per case, and subtract let's say 2 autos/case as insert autos, that leaves you with 2420 autos for 110 cases broken.

There were 102 auto subjects, which means in 110 cases you should get about 23-24 autos per subject assuming perfect distribution. And in terms of color, usually a case is about half color autos and half base, so you can assume about 11-12 base autos and 11-12 color (again just generalizing).

So 32 autos with 20 color puts you pretty clearly on the good side of the ledger.

[Highstubbs]

to me, i guess the more interesting question is, in two years (6 months, 1 year, 4 years) how often are you selling for a profit or a loss? otherwise known as how good are you at finding diamonds in the rough that pan out? buying into breaks of future indy players is a sure way to leave the hobby. Buying lower end guys for profit is a tough way to make a profit....

[Iiicalypso]

Originally Posted by Highstubbs

to me, i guess the more interesting question is, in two years (6 months, 1 year, 4 years) how often are you selling for a profit or a loss? otherwise known as how good are you at finding diamonds in the rough that pan out? buying into breaks of future indy players is a sure way to leave the hobby. Buying lower end guys for profit is a tough way to make a profit....

A fair point. When I get into these breaks, I abandon all pretense of "investment"-- I buy into team breaks mostly so I can get my Padres, or I buy second tier Padres prospects because I could not stomach the prices of the top guys. I've gotten lucky a couple of times (Esteury Ruiz at his peak), but for the most part I accumulate.

Originally Posted by BRob1

people are adding in a value for the “entertainment factor” of participating in breaks… i would say there is also plenty of entertainment value in the singles aspect as well if you enjoy searching for cards, negotiating on price, trying to find steals which I’m sure a lot of us do.


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Definitely true, although as much as I love hunting, especially once the buzz has worn off, the cost of shipping really makes it rough. I wince at the paradox of, the cheaper the card gets, the more crazy the shipping cost seems. I sometimes take a look at the consigners like DCSports, knowing they will have a dozen Padres I would like to have, but for the most part, I am reluctant to pull the trigger on the $4 Bowman auto with the $5 bubble mailer.

It's all fun, though, in the end.

[50thRoundPick]

My auto spot - Gabriel Rincones - measured almost dead-even in current eBay value. And it was a lot of fun!

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Iiicalypso

Definitely true, although as much as I love hunting, especially once the buzz has worn off, the cost of shipping really makes it rough. I wince at the paradox of, the cheaper the card gets, the more crazy the shipping cost seems. I sometimes take a look at the consigners like DCSports, knowing they will have a dozen Padres I would like to have, but for the most part, I am reluctant to pull the trigger on the $4 Bowman auto with the $5 bubble mailer.

It's all fun, though, in the end.

That is true, the big consigners are rarely doing PWE.

I will also add I will almost never buy raw from someone like DC as in my experience the cards are almost always someone’s grading rejects and tend to have undisclosed scratches and print lines. Gotta find the small time guy who will ship pwe and doesn’t grade every single card. part of the fun of the hunt!


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[Archangel1775]

I'm hoping for four colors in any of the big breaks. Gold, Orange, Red or Super. Everything else is a consolation prize that I expect only to make a percentage back at some point. In the meantime, I'll search ebay for any of the auto color parallel auctions and see if I can get them for a decent price. With the players I select, I realize at times that I'm the one setting the market so I tend to slow down on them