Joel Embiid

[GOATcards]

For two years straight Joel has played second fiddle in the MVP voting to Joker, and such prominent placement two years straight has me wondering how he might end up being viewed in basketball lore. As long as he's healthy he can have some tremendous games, although it doesn't seem he's all that consistent and he's been a disappointment overall in the playoffs.

His health seems to be an issue nearly season, which makes me think that he could end up being compared to Anthony Davis as someone potentially top-30 all-time (or even top-20 in Embiid's case) but so limited by injuries that they'll likely end up in the top 50. Plus the top end of the NBA is getting really crowded with not just Joker and Joel but also Giannis and Luka, it's getting really hard for even these 4 much less the rest of the league to grab Award Shares in this hectic environment, and there are other young stars on the rise (Ja, Jayson). And did I mention his playoff numbers are well below his RS numbers?

But man, when he's on, he's easily Dream Team caliber, right? Consider the comps, then, and where they rank all-time. In a less-crowded era he'd pull down probably the last 2 MVPs?

[ballhawkdawk]

Embiid would've won MVP two years ago if he played a few more games. He was incredible last year and won a chunk of the award share, but Joker had an all time historic season in terms of advanced metrics. I don't think taking second in the MVP in back to back years makes Embiid any less of a player, but you either win the award or you don't. There's not much love for second or third place whether it be an individual award or team finish.

He's incredible if you're just going by the eye test, and he checks every box you want from a center, but he hasn't even played in the ECF. Making the ECF is a low bar for a player of his caliber. I'd guess he lands between 30-40 by the time his career is done. Top 20 potential based on ability, but you reach a point where you need hardware to climb the rankings, and Embiid has none.

[AbraCalabro]

Just posting here because it's mandatory at this point.

[GOATcards]

because his health and playoff issues don't seem to have the hobby FOMO'ing for him I think I can put off buying his cards, but should I be having a FOMO-boner at some price point?

Someone come up with something better than "FOMO-boner" please, (50% of people say it's an eyesore while the other 50% love it, we need consensus on something)

[pejc300]

I think you nailed everything in the first post. Bottom line is he would need to win a few championships to bump up any kind of ladder, but I think your assessment of his career so far is spot on.

[ballhawkdawk]

Hawks up 100-97 with a minute left... Embiid scores two straight buckets, then gets a steal and gets fouled to put it to 103-100. He's been the closer for a handful of games this year, and other team's don't have much of an answer.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Hawks up 100-97 with a minute left... Embiid scores two straight buckets, then gets a steal and gets fouled to put it to 103-100. He's been the closer for a handful of games this year, and other team's don't have much of an answer.

an available and engaged embiid is a monster.

[Beavers98]

I sold what Embiid I had. Great talent, just don't know how much further he progresses. Here's hoping to not seeing a thread of "I sold Embiid too early.. at this price." haha

[ronaldkosh]

I think Embiid's ceiling (and he's unlikely to reach it) is a Dirk Nowitzki or David Robinson type career. 1 or 2 titles and all with one team. That would put him 20th-30th all time

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by Beavers98

I sold what Embiid I had. Great talent, just don't know how much further he progresses. Here's hoping to not seeing a thread of "I sold Embiid too early.. at this price." haha

I'm not sure Embiid will ever take off in terms of hobby love. He's still miles behind Giannis (2 MVPs, 1 title, 1 FMVP vs. 0-0-0) at an older age, and I can't see him playing like this for more than another five years tops. I'd collect more of his stuff if he didn't stop signing... not many autos of his that are appealing to me. A card like the Immaculate Signature Moves where he has his arms out trying to hype up the crowd is something I'd buy instantly.

[Zedlaw]

I'd love to see a Shaq v Embiid battle. I think they're way closer in terms of on court dominance than their places in final ranking will indicate. But when you're breathing that rarefied air, you gotta win. Shaq wasn't winning much without a top ten MVP running mate, which Embiid hasn't had.

When I think about Shaq, I picture his younger days, flying around and tearing down rims, I also picture him holding trophies, I also picture him throwing down that iconic alley-oop. When I picture Embiid, I immediately hold my breath and hope he doesn't get hurt. Fair or not, coming into the league injured might really hurt the ultimate story of Embiid the player.

Shaq and Hakeem and Drob, have young years of putting up crazy numbers and playing a ton of minutes. These numbers gave them a great legacy foundation when they all ultimately slowed down a bit and had better teams around them when they finally started to win. Embiid is at the stage that with the right team around him he can definitely be the best player on a championship team. But is he Ewing with Oakley and Starks or Shaq with Kobe, Penny and Wade?

[gomiamigo]

He's probably gonna end up a top 20 player, but there's a hairs-breadth of difference btw 25/20, etc. Obviously he has to stay healthy for more years and continue to dominate in the next ~5 as someone mentioned.

I think what most educated NBA observers would agree that what makes the very top players is dominance, not mere stat-compiling, which is why Bob Horry and Karl Malone aren't regarded as top 10-15 players by anybody.

Embiid - like Giannis - has that dominance gene. He does it on both ends.

Unlike Giannis he hasn't had the benefit of being healthy virtually his entire career, missing the first two years with broken feet was a huge setback and then hurting his knee year 3. Joel played more games and more minutes than Greek last year and more minutes per game this year as well.

If I had to pick one guy to start my team for one game this year to save my life, it would be Joel or Greek. There's no other candidates based on their D and rim protection combined with their offensive skills and rebounding.

Given that Embiid is 20% better shooting 3s and 15% better FT for his career [and way better FTs last 3 years] I'd honestly start with Joel but it's damned close.

Embiid has never had an elite offensive player next to him for a full season, not ever. Butler was the closest, and, not surprisingly, the closest the 76ers came to winning the title. There's a reason 3-time MVP Moses Malone couldn't win a title in Houston.

[GOATcards]

Joel Embiid

If I'm running the ratios right, he's on the way to over .89 award shares this season? Which would put him around 2.2 for his career, pretty good in this day and age

seems like only talent out of Europe can wrest awards/share from him