Hobby Question: 90's Market Dynamics vs Today

[dgioulakis]

As someone who grew up in the 90's, I collected and still collect 70's, 80's, 90's more than any other period. Although I stopped collecting for well over 15 years and have only recently ventured back to the hobby.

It's interesting to see how things have changed since Panini took over and all the market consolidation / bankruptcies of trading card companies that occurred since my youth.

One thing that strikes my interest is understanding how things have changed:
'80-'88: one rookie card to collect and tough to find in great shape (except '87 and '88)
'89-('94/'95): it is what it is, but some of the best players of all time entered the league so I still love the rookies, no matter the print run

'96-00:

This is what I find interesting and would love to hear your thoughts. To present an example: I am trying to get ahold of a '96 Terrell Owens Atomic rookie in highest grade that I'm willing to pay. But it's interesting to me that the market values his - probably rarer - non-rookie cards more e.g. '97 Metal PMG, '98 Brilliants 24kt

While I can think of the '92 Wild Card Stat Smashers as potentially one of the other early instances of non-rookie cards being potentially more valuable than a player's first, was '97 the year that changed people's perspectives on collecting? Those late ninety rare inserts or parallels are far more valuable than most rookie cards at the time, save perhaps some exceptions e.g. '96 Ray Lewis Atomic

It appears to me, however, that today, (again, just familiarizing myself with everything that has changed, so please forgive my ignorance or any lack of awareness), that the industry has shifted back to rookie-card dominance - even though there are numerous short-print rookie cards for each potential star player. Any card issued after seems to fall in line value-wise - except perhaps some very unique collector's items (superfractors, etc)

What makes those rare 90's non-rookie cards so unique to today's non-rookie cards? Or is it just a matter of time that's passed and the age of the collector.

Am I way off-base in my observations? How does the '00s fit into this picture?

[Archangel1775]

You answered your own question.

"Rarer"

equals high demand and low supply

equals higher prices

A lot of player collectors out there

Probably best to not compare rookie card values to rare 90s insert values, no real correlation.

As for comparing 90s inserts/parallels to todays, its no longer a secret and people are paying for it with the likes of Gold Prizms, Kabooms, etc.

Good luck on your collection!

[dgioulakis]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

You answered your own question.

"Rarer"

equals high demand and low supply

equals higher prices

A lot of player collectors out there

Probably best to not compare rookie card values to rare 90s insert values, no real correlation.

As for comparing 90s inserts/parallels to todays, its no longer a secret and people are paying for it with the likes of Gold Prizms, Kabooms, etc.

Good luck on your collection!

Yeah, I suppose that you're right. I'm not sure why this has confused me so. My guess is because it was at a time of transition when rookie cards had very little variance or rarity associated to it, to an immediate introduction of many inserts or parallels serially issued in short print. And how the market determined a rookie-vs-non-rookie-SSP value. Obviously today this is no longer a dynamic since all rookies tend to have rare parallels and/or inserts.

One thing I'd add is that rarity alone doesn't equate to higher price. There are plenty of Collector's Edge or Upper Deck SSP cards from the 90's which still go for incredibly cheap. So, however, you can quantify whether a card is "iconic", for lack of a better term, perhaps matters just as much, if not more. These Panini Downtowns are certainly not rare, but are relatively highly valued - my guess because of the creative or iconic value rather than its perceived rarity?

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by dgioulakis

One thing I'd add is that rarity alone doesn't equate to higher price. There are plenty of Collector's Edge or Upper Deck SSP cards from the 90's which still go for incredibly cheap. So, however, you can quantify whether a card is "iconic", for lack of a better term, perhaps matters just as much, if not more. These Panini Downtowns are certainly not rare, but are relatively highly valued - my guess because of the creative or iconic value rather than its perceived rarity?

No one ever said our hobby was completely rational . CE doesn't have quite the same cachet as some other brands. Definitely still some good value out there for collectors who enjoy certain cards or sets that flew under the radar so to speak.

[marinocollector]

The big change? Hobby embraced "the first" card.
Where as for years, the first card was the rookie card and everyone wanted it. That "first card" mentality has spilled into many iconic sets that people want "the first card" more than any other. And the veterans are getting super popular. So first Prizm Gold, First PMG, First Star Ruby, first refractor, first game used, first game used auto, even if they are not the player true RC, it being the first is garnering as much attention as if it was a rookie card from that year for the top players.

[TheFrenzy]

I'd say this would be a good question to ask the forum as a whole.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

I'd say this would be a good question to ask the forum as a whole.

Agreed, after you're banned.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by jplarson

No one ever said our hobby was completely rational .

Or even remotely rational.

I collect. That's my primary goal. I have a very specific group of cards I'm chasing and I don't deviate from that.

But the hype $$$ bump and perceived value part of cards... is what it is. Hot potato, flipper, speculation. Some people like to do it that way. A card printed to /15 copies in 30 releases for a player in 2024 is just a way to push those cards. It's actually a very cynical way for manufacturers to manipulate collectors.

I figure a VERY small % of cards will retain value. There's maybe 8-10 guys that have monster values. The a few with great value.

Everything else is just... cardboard.