False Economy

[RKH916]

Everybody is well aware of the multiple causes for cardboard inflation, but I thought I'd enter a Dear Diary entry to add to the examples

I've been following prices on a '96 hobby box I've been wanting to rip for a while for nostalgic reasons, and I've noticed something happening.

The boxes on the market - particularly ebay - appear to be continuously recycled by flippers. Flipper 1 buys box for $200, sells to flipper 2 for $300. Flipper 2 then sells to Flipper 3 for $350, and so on.

The boxes aren't winding up in the hands of collectors (I can confirm this by identifying multiple sales of the same boxes), they're being re-flipped which has driven the average box price up by almost 300% over the course of the 8 months or so that I've been watching

Not going to name the box because I'm now thinking of buying every single one that pops up just to stop the cycle, lol

It wouldn't surprise me if this is happening with all post-'95 basketball wax

[Nomad]

Blez said the price of current NT is so high, it doesn't make sense to break product.

I don't understand. The Wemby logoman non-RPA just sold for 100k. I have two of the Nesmith Prizm printing plates. What's the chase?

[Torro]

Old wax is definitely the area alot of flippers are, and for good reason. There will be always someone interested to open 96 wax and the number of sealed boxes will only go down, so its way safer to flip (especially if you are willing to wait) wax than some red hot prospects etc.

[sethc1020]

This is basically the entire cardboard market now. There aren't many "collectors" anymore only flippers. The Covid Boom brought an entire new element to the market that is just looking to flip everything to get rich or people using the hobby as a new age casino (breakers). The average collector that used to hold the hobby up has been priced out of the game, no longer can they buy packs/wax to open, or decent singles of their favorite player or RC because prices are crazy. Everything now, for the most part, is bought and sold strictly to make a quick profit.

This is the way now.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

This is basically the entire cardboard market now. There aren't many "collectors" anymore only flippers. The Covid Boom brought an entire new element to the market that is just looking to flip everything to get rich or people using the hobby as a new age casino (breakers). The average collector that used to hold the hobby up has been priced out of the game, no longer can they buy packs/wax to open, or decent singles of their favorite player or RC because prices are crazy. Everything now, for the most part, is bought and sold strictly to make a quick profit.

This is the way now.

I dont agree with this. Sure there are more flippers, but there are also a lot more collectors than in the past. It might be the case for super high-end prospect rookie cards and wax, but not so much in regards to low/mid-end, this is where I believe most of the collectors currently are, a lot of cool stuff of your favorit players are cheaper than ever (mostly because flippers/investors are not targeting them, and also the gamblers from breaks are dumping them for whatever they can get for them and there are a lot of them on the singles market as a lot of product is being ripped). I think the singles market is actually great for the collectors, just dont go after the hyped stuff and the gold /10 and black 1/1 (things that flippers view as investments). For example numbered color match stuff and case hits are dirt cheap and no flipper is going to compete with you bidding on them.

[Orangejello727]

Wax prices are too expensive. So expensive that buying cards makes more sense. There are a lot of us that used to join group breaks spending 20k+ buying teams throughout a season that simply just stopped because of price.

Immaculate is like 12k a 5xbox case. I can buy a UD Jordan autograph and maybe a slimmer Lebron UD auto for the same price as a case of immaculate. Which one would you choose?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Not doubting that this is happening, but how are the sellers avoiding eBay fees? Or are they “selling” to each other off eBay?

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Orangejello727

Wax prices are too expensive. So expensive that buying cards makes more sense. There are a lot of us that used to join group breaks spending 20k+ buying teams throughout a season that simply just stopped because of price.

Immaculate is like 12k a 5xbox case. I can buy a UD Jordan autograph and maybe a slimmer Lebron UD auto for the same price as a case of immaculate. Which one would you choose?

Yeah but there could be anything in the $12K case of Immaculate.

There could even be a Jordan or LeBron auto...oh wait.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by Orangejello727

Wax prices are too expensive. So expensive that buying cards makes more sense. There are a lot of us that used to join group breaks spending 20k+ buying teams throughout a season that simply just stopped because of price.

Immaculate is like 12k a 5xbox case. I can buy a UD Jordan autograph and maybe a slimmer Lebron UD auto for the same price as a case of immaculate. Which one would you choose?

The degenerate gamblers don't care. They are sucked into breaking with the breakers & actually believe that a wemby card is worth the ridiculous prices some people are paying. They create hype on a player or two for every year & release and they all fall for it.

[pejc300]

It doesn't sound like a false economy to me; it sounds like an economy. People will stop buying when they can't flip it for more. So until then, there's a market for it. Eventually someone gets stuck holding the bag, but that doesn't make it a "false" economy.

[esoxwaters]

Originally Posted by pejc300

It doesn't sound like a false economy to me; it sounds like an economy. People will stop buying when they can't flip it for more. So until then, there's a market for it. Eventually someone gets stuck holding the bag, but that doesn't make it a "false" economy.

^^This exactly. It's a hot-potato economy. Just don't get stuck holding when the music stops.

[patchgenie]

its like a never ending supply of lemmings buying into group breaks at crappy prices. "bro, a sweet Jalen Wilson /199, sweet hit fam, let's go!"

[jacksonjj]

It's not a false economy, it's just called the greater fool.

At the most fundamental levels, even the value of the dollar depends on the greater fool. Something is worth what another person will pay for it. Always.

[PuddleMonkey]

What I want to know is why MLB, NHL and NFL are so easy to get payments from ebay auctions yet NBA stuff you'll get stiffed half of the time if not more with non-payments. The NBA is a cesspool of the scummiest scumbags.

[MikeyLikesIt]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Blez said the price of current NT is so high, it doesn't make sense to break product.

I don't understand. The Wemby logoman non-RPA just sold for 100k. I have two of the Nesmith Prizm printing plates. What's the chase?

Forreal Wemby along with many other non auto rookies and still the 2023-24 products are high they should be going down along with most products.

I think everyone needs a collective intervention. The ignorant also need to learn odds and read the checklists. There aren't as many logomans and autos of guys you want in there. Even this year with Prizm Choice many nebulas were hit, the sticker autos don’t sell for crap, and there is no gold/black gold chase.

[ashear]

Originally Posted by esoxwaters

^^This exactly. It's a hot-potato economy. Just don't get stuck holding when the music stops.

This is literally the entirety of collecting though lol… eventually someone buys something for their collection and basically holds it until they die.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by MikeyLikesIt

Forreal Wemby along with many other non auto rookies and still the 2023-24 products are high they should be going down along with most products.

I think everyone needs a collective intervention. The ignorant also need to learn odds and read the checklists. There aren't as many logomans and autos of guys you want in there. Even this year with Prizm Choice many nebulas were hit, the sticker autos don’t sell for crap, and there is no gold/black gold chase.

why ? Let them spend whatever they want, I'll just buy the singles for dirt cheap

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by ashear

eventually someone buys something for their collection and basically holds it until they die.

These people are the worst!

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

These people are the worst!

Lol, this wins the day. Bravo.

[WaiverWire]

The problem is none of the pricing is realistic. Not for wax or singles. I have a good job and my spouse has a good job, and I look at card prices and just laugh and walk away.

[Brobocop]

My two brothers-in-law got into cards in the past 18 months. Over Easter, I was telling them what I was spending on wax in 2011-2014 and they couldn't believe it. I don't think single prices ever truly justified the massive mark-up in wax during COVID. The ceiling was raised due to the rare, but insanely overvalued monster hits, but the floor never came up. A bad box of Prizm at $90 in 2014 yielded $20, a bad box at $1,100 yielded $20 in 2021.

What Not and Fanatics Live are clearly gambling. Basically razzes. Buying singles isn't as fun, but watching your bank account go down by thousands of dollars without anything to show for it is even less fun.

[Nomad]

There should be a breaker-type channel that arranges live trades and sales on the spot, for registered and vaulted cards, and streams the deal and credits accounts with money immediately. Much like break spots need to be paid to be filled.

Any level of card could be part of a deal. For example, rare Nesmith (or equivalent) could get included as a top up, in a deal involving much bigger cards. Or you could simply trade and sell like for like, rare Nesmith for rare Anunoby. Not every deal needs to be monumental.

Wait, I will post this in the Blez thread.

[chiefroc]

a lot of reasons discussed here already and mostly agree:

Reasons for high prices:
- breakers
- investors
- flippers
- more collectors

But investing in Old Way is really not that smart unless selling it sealed. All the cards in there intend to stick together. The high sough after cards are mostly affected as well. this means, even if you pull a monster, it will be with massive defects. further the odds were quite high back ten and this does not help to get something out of the boxes.

Really funny is, when you look at boxes that are expensive because they are from the late 90ties, but have no value at all in there. Best example 99-00 Upper Deck Victory. it is just a base set and has one single chase card, which will get you maybe $30, but the boxes selling close to $200.
I am always laughing how dumb people are buying such stuff.

But each day an idiot wakes up and is looking to buy something like this, just need to find him ;-)

[WaiverWire]

There aren’t more collectors. There might be more gamblers. But not more collectors.

Originally Posted by chiefroc

a lot of reasons discussed here already and mostly agree:

Reasons for high prices:
- breakers
- investors
- flippers
- more collectors

But investing in Old Way is really not that smart unless selling it sealed. All the cards in there intend to stick together. The high sough after cards are mostly affected as well. this means, even if you pull a monster, it will be with massive defects. further the odds were quite high back ten and this does not help to get something out of the boxes.

Really funny is, when you look at boxes that are expensive because they are from the late 90ties, but have no value at all in there. Best example 99-00 Upper Deck Victory. it is just a base set and has one single chase card, which will get you maybe $30, but the boxes selling close to $200.
I am always laughing how dumb people are buying such stuff.

But each day an idiot wakes up and is looking to buy something like this, just need to find him ;-)