The Elephant in the Room

Galileo77 · 03-30-2025, 11:08 AM

I realize None of us has a crystal ball to see the effect of the upcoming trade decisions as well as other decisons on the baseball card market but i would definitely like to hear from some of our group on where they think this year will take us. Our sons and I collect vintage that is our love and on the other hand and to a much smaller scale we sell and buy some of the younger players we feel have a bright future yet are under appreciated. would love to hear from some of the members -Please, I definitely do not want this to be a political discussion but purely a baseball card one

ThoseBackPages · 03-30-2025, 11:10 AM

its best to keep collecting, as always

MiamiMarlinsFan · 03-30-2025, 11:30 AM

I’m not sure I understand what the question is. If you and your sons collect, there’s nothing to be concerned about. Cards will continue to be made for as long as sports exist. They’re not going away.

Galileo77 · 03-30-2025, 11:49 AM

[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19861321]I’m not sure I understand what the question is. If you and your sons collect, there’s nothing to be concerned about. Cards will continue to be made for as long as sports exist. They’re not going away.[/QUO

thank you -what i am referring to is not the Collection side- its the side where i will buy some prospects i feel have a good future and are under-appreciated and sell maybe 1 year or 2 later -the "investment" side -that is my concern

rms13 · 03-30-2025, 11:56 AM

I think the days of "investing" in modern cards are over. It's more of a lottery ticket these days. If you hit a big 1/1 chase like the Skenes debut patch you'll make a lot of money. The market for most modern cards has been going down since the covid bump.

MiamiMarlinsFan · 03-30-2025, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galileo77

thank you -what i am referring to is not the Collection side- its the side where i will buy some prospects i feel have a good future and are under-appreciated and sell maybe 1 year or 2 later -the "investment" side -that is my concern

I think investing in ultra modern cards isn’t a great idea. Investing in ultra modern prospects is an even worse one. It’s always been a big gamble, but now with high print runs and refractor/parallel inflation, even if a prospect pans out, there’s minimal reward unless you really want to put the work in (like a few members here do).

Poorboy · 03-30-2025, 12:04 PM

Can it be done ?
Yes one that comes to mind is brios and his Bobby Witt run
Another I can never remember loaded up on Juan Soto way back when
I’m sure there’s more
But as Miami said it’s a stacked deck and tough
Good luck

corndog · 03-30-2025, 12:06 PM

The gazillion variations of modern manufactured scarcity has been beaten to death.

Stick with vintage and enjoy collecting.

PuddleMonkey · 03-30-2025, 12:09 PM

10x!

INVEST!!!

*rocket emoji*rocket emoji*rocket emoji*

GabrielCards · 03-30-2025, 12:10 PM

IMO there are always plenty of good investment opportunities with modern cards since Sports Cards are a billion dollar industry and increasing exponentally. Of course it's also easy to lose money. As far as a young budding star that I recently purchased one of his big cards (and his prices are not that high yet) my pick is: Jackson Merrill.

boxbuster7 · 03-30-2025, 12:16 PM

I think investing in cards is an awful strategy these days

theres just too much supply. nothing will matter in 10 years except for the very best cards which few of us have

PuddleMonkey · 03-30-2025, 12:19 PM

Stick to '91 Fleer and you'll be fine.

GabrielCards · 03-30-2025, 12:20 PM

That's just nonsense. People who bought Ohtani RCs 8 years ago could be millionaires now. Or heck even buying them a year ago they are almost double in price. But then people who bought during the pandemic could have lost a lost. Supply and demand..the industry is growing and money can be made (not by ripping packs).

rms13 · 03-30-2025, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poorboy

Can it be done ?
Yes one that comes to mind is brios and his Bobby Witt run
Another I can never remember loaded up on Juan Soto way back when
I’m sure there’s more
But as Miami said it’s a stacked deck and tough
Good luck

Did they go all in on Witt and Soto? Or did they buy a bunch of cards for 10, 20 or more prospects and got lucky with one of them? All prospects are a gamble especially if you aren't deep into the prospecting world. The people I see have good luck identify prospects 1-3 years before anyone is really talking about them and buy them cheap. Once a guy is on the top 100 list it's probably too late unless they end up at Witt or Soto level but when then you probably pay a decent amount for cards and not making huge profit after a couple of years.

rms13 · 03-30-2025, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

That's just nonsense. People who bought Ohtani RCs 8 years ago could be millionaires now. Or heck even buying them a year ago they are almost double in price. But then people who bought during the pandemic could have lost a lost. Supply and demand..the industry is growing and money can be made (not by ripping packs).

How many Ohtani are there? That's one obvious outlier example

GabrielCards · 03-30-2025, 12:23 PM

Well those who scooped up Witt a year ago made a killing. Anyways...Merrill is who someone could gamble on now.

NYBBFAN · 03-30-2025, 12:28 PM

Poorboy · 03-30-2025, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rms13

Did they go all in on Witt and Soto? Or did they buy a bunch of cards for 10, 20 or more prospects and got lucky with one of them? All prospects are a gamble especially if you aren't deep into the prospecting world. The people I see have good luck identify prospects 1-3 years before anyone is really talking about them and buy them cheap. Once a guy is on the top 100 list it's probably too late unless they end up at Witt or Soto level but when then you probably pay a decent amount for cards and not making huge profit after a couple of years.

No brios specifically bought key top grade rare Witt’s
See buy sell thread for a look
I remembered soto guy was Reggie
He had a ton of different key soto cards fbca and flagship

Poorboy · 03-30-2025, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

Well those who scooped up Witt a year ago made a killing. Anyways...Merrill is who someone could gamble on now.

Bought into some vapor and numbered first year lunar lol
All I could swing

backtothe50s · 03-30-2025, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

That's just nonsense. People who bought Ohtani RCs 8 years ago could be millionaires now. Or heck even buying them a year ago they are almost double in price. But then people who bought during the pandemic could have lost a lost. Supply and demand..the industry is growing and money can be made (not by ripping packs).

If not by ripping packs then how? I got some very nice cards by ripping packs, then sent them to PSA and they came back as PSA 10s so I’m not following your logic, please explain if not by ripping packs then how does someone make money on cards? (As I’ve had decent luck just buying packs at target just this weekend)

base set · 03-30-2025, 01:24 PM

I thought this thread would be about bats.

tjforce · 03-30-2025, 01:31 PM

The fact of the matter is the vast majority of modern, particularly while prospecting, losses value over time.

That was true in

-1988 when everyone was buying Greg Jeffries
-1997 when everyone was buying Nomar Garicaparra, Kerry Wood, and Travis Lee
-2007 when everyone was buying Matt Laports

The game doesn't change. Those in the know understand that it's about one thing: sifting through the piles of junk to find the few pieces of gold that'll matter in the long run.

anusinha · 03-30-2025, 01:38 PM

99%+ of cards are on a long trip down to being worthless, invest accordingly.

awz50 · 03-30-2025, 01:40 PM

Collect. Just do that and you have no worries

oddstuff · 03-30-2025, 02:03 PM

Underappreciated young players today are anomalies even more so today vs just a brief 7 years ago. The entry fee to those kinds of players today are so much higher than it was say back in 2017/2018. By the time those players get talked about here, big dollars have already gone into those players. You could take some flyers and get into pitchers mentioned in the pitchers/outcast thread but arm issues make pitchers much bigger risks. Pitchers not as fun either as most play once every 4-5 days only. For me, to be hobby good, need to be at least 30/30 or annual 40 hrs guy with a .280+ batting average (old school numbers easier for me to figure out compared to WAR). Anything less I'm passing. Is Merrill a cinch to do 30/30? If not, is he worth the current cost to buy his cards as an example? Not picking on Merrill but you mentioned him. Is Merrill the top star on his own team or will be?

03-30-2025, 11:08 AM	#1
Galileo77 Member Join Date: Dec 2021 Location: Arizona Posts: 343 instagram -bcdbaseballcards	The Elephant in the Room I realize None of us has a crystal ball to see the effect of the upcoming trade decisions as well as other decisons on the baseball card market but i would definitely like to hear from some of our group on where they think this year will take us. Our sons and I collect vintage that is our love and on the other hand and to a much smaller scale we sell and buy some of the younger players we feel have a bright future yet are under appreciated. would love to hear from some of the members -Please, I definitely do not want this to be a political discussion but purely a baseball card one

03-30-2025, 11:10 AM	#2
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,673 ThoseBackPages	its best to keep collecting, as always __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-30-2025, 12:06 PM	#8
corndog BODA Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: From a table in McDonalds, with lovely fake flowers on it. Posts: 17,764	The gazillion variations of modern manufactured scarcity has been beaten to death. Stick with vintage and enjoy collecting. __________________ He has no rival, He has no equal.

03-30-2025, 12:16 PM	#11
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 12,275 boxbuster777	I think investing in cards is an awful strategy these days theres just too much supply. nothing will matter in 10 years except for the very best cards which few of us have __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

03-30-2025, 12:28 PM	#17
NYBBFAN Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,936	__________________ https://gallery.us175.com/ https://inv.us175.com/wantlist

03-30-2025, 11:30 AM	#3
MiamiMarlinsFan Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Florida Posts: 13,517	I’m not sure I understand what the question is. If you and your sons collect, there’s nothing to be concerned about. Cards will continue to be made for as long as sports exist. They’re not going away.

03-30-2025, 11:49 AM	#4
Galileo77 Member Join Date: Dec 2021 Location: Arizona Posts: 343 instagram -bcdbaseballcards	[QUOTE=MiamiMarlinsFan;19861321]I’m not sure I understand what the question is. If you and your sons collect, there’s nothing to be concerned about. Cards will continue to be made for as long as sports exist. They’re not going away.[/QUO thank you -what i am referring to is not the Collection side- its the side where i will buy some prospects i feel have a good future and are under-appreciated and sell maybe 1 year or 2 later -the "investment" side -that is my concern

03-30-2025, 11:56 AM	#5
rms13 Member Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: California Posts: 7,040	I think the days of "investing" in modern cards are over. It's more of a lottery ticket these days. If you hit a big 1/1 chase like the Skenes debut patch you'll make a lot of money. The market for most modern cards has been going down since the covid bump.

03-30-2025, 12:04 PM	#7
Poorboy Banned - PBM Join Date: Dec 2024 Posts: 1,635	Can it be done ? Yes one that comes to mind is brios and his Bobby Witt run Another I can never remember loaded up on Juan Soto way back when I’m sure there’s more But as Miami said it’s a stacked deck and tough Good luck

03-30-2025, 12:09 PM	#9
PuddleMonkey Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 4,013	10x! INVEST!!! rocket emojirocket emojirocket emoji

03-30-2025, 12:10 PM	#10
GabrielCards Member Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 335	IMO there are always plenty of good investment opportunities with modern cards since Sports Cards are a billion dollar industry and increasing exponentally. Of course it's also easy to lose money. As far as a young budding star that I recently purchased one of his big cards (and his prices are not that high yet) my pick is: Jackson Merrill.

03-30-2025, 12:19 PM	#12
PuddleMonkey Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 4,013	Stick to '91 Fleer and you'll be fine.

03-30-2025, 12:20 PM	#13
GabrielCards Member Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 335	That's just nonsense. People who bought Ohtani RCs 8 years ago could be millionaires now. Or heck even buying them a year ago they are almost double in price. But then people who bought during the pandemic could have lost a lost. Supply and demand..the industry is growing and money can be made (not by ripping packs).

03-30-2025, 12:23 PM	#16
GabrielCards Member Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 335	Well those who scooped up Witt a year ago made a killing. Anyways...Merrill is who someone could gamble on now.

03-30-2025, 01:24 PM	#21
base set Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: NW Michigan Posts: 9,425	I thought this thread would be about bats.

03-30-2025, 01:31 PM	#22
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 23,222	The fact of the matter is the vast majority of modern, particularly while prospecting, losses value over time. That was true in -1988 when everyone was buying Greg Jeffries -1997 when everyone was buying Nomar Garicaparra, Kerry Wood, and Travis Lee -2007 when everyone was buying Matt Laports The game doesn't change. Those in the know understand that it's about one thing: sifting through the piles of junk to find the few pieces of gold that'll matter in the long run. __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!"

03-30-2025, 01:38 PM	#23
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,533	99%+ of cards are on a long trip down to being worthless, invest accordingly.

03-30-2025, 01:40 PM	#24
awz50 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: New Hampshire>>>Arizona>>>>Florida Posts: 33,246 awz50	Collect. Just do that and you have no worries __________________ Collecting Baseball Hof Autographs 248/351 Blowouts Official Red Sox face of the franchise Eduardo Rodriguez Super Collector

03-30-2025, 02:03 PM	#25
oddstuff Member Join Date: Dec 2017 Location: CA Posts: 5,090	Underappreciated young players today are anomalies even more so today vs just a brief 7 years ago. The entry fee to those kinds of players today are so much higher than it was say back in 2017/2018. By the time those players get talked about here, big dollars have already gone into those players. You could take some flyers and get into pitchers mentioned in the pitchers/outcast thread but arm issues make pitchers much bigger risks. Pitchers not as fun either as most play once every 4-5 days only. For me, to be hobby good, need to be at least 30/30 or annual 40 hrs guy with a .280+ batting average (old school numbers easier for me to figure out compared to WAR). Anything less I'm passing. Is Merrill a cinch to do 30/30? If not, is he worth the current cost to buy his cards as an example? Not picking on Merrill but you mentioned him. Is Merrill the top star on his own team or will be?