Hobby (Or even Retail) Box/Case Price Breaking Point

[cl456123]

I'm just curious to get some thoughts around the current pricing of mainly hobby box/case prices? Or even retail pricing on items like blaster boxes?

So for a little bit of context, I got back into the hobby around 2016/17 after a long hiatus from being a collector as a kid growing up (I'm 37 now). And while i do still collect, buy/sell, and sometimes buy into breaks, i haven't really bought much in terms of boxes (or especially cases) in about 2-3 years. And while I dont want to go all "old man get off my lawn" but the pricing of boxes/cases has nearly tripled over the last 3-4 years and there is certainly not triple the value in these products or triple the value of cards in general over that time.

I bring this point up now in particular because i only recently noticed the price of 2025 Topps Series 1 Jumbo boxes at damn near $300. To each their own if you want to go ahead and pay that but that in my opinion is insanity. I can recall in fairly recent history where you could buy a Jumbo box of Bowman for far less than that and get far more value in your purchase. And I'm well aware and anybody who disagrees is kidding themselves that buying a box of cards is gambling and you're unlikely to get your money's worth more often than not, but it seems like Topps at this point doesn't even care anymore because i guess people are just paying whatever they price at.

So the question is, what on earth is the breaking point for these products?

A handful of years ago I'd have been ticked off to pay $300 for a box of bowman jumbo as i stated above, so i couldn't even begin to consider paying that for a box of flagship.

To a different point and direction of conversation, while Topps has always had it's issues, I feel like they have gotten tremendously worse since Fanatics bought them and took over. Maybe that's just me, but you're seeing a lack of care for Baseball card products and more focus on NBA and NFL (which is fine for those who like it, but baseball cards will always be numbero uno to me). And you're seeing things like a Bowman for example get pushed to the side, primary example being that 2025 Bowman doesn't even have a release date which would be unheard of in year's past.

Curious to get some thoughts and opinions on all of this.

Cheers!
CL

[premium1981]

Unfortunately its just going to go higher. Baseball has been, and still is, very cheap compared to other sports. I don't know that there is a specific breaking point. Especially now with how cheap breakers can factionalize the costs down to individuals. The consumer who likes to buy sealed stuff for themselves are just out of luck. The only thing that stops the direction we are heading is government regulation (which is also no good).

[mikejones]

Until people decide to leave the hobby, prices will continue to go up. The demand is there so it's not stopping anytime soon. The only way prices may go down is if the three major sports allows multiple licenses to make cards after fanatics' exclusive runs out.

You think panini was bad, wait a few years and you'll be wishing they were still around.

[KhalDrogo]

There is no breaking point until unemployment meaningfully moves higher.

[rms13]

$300 is secondary market. I think they were like $180-200 from Topps. They're still not printing enough to meet demand. But the pricing of wax is the most boring hobby conversation these days. Yes it's expensive and keeps getting more expensive but everything still sells out so demand is still high. We'll get cheap wax when interest goes down. But when wax prices go down so will singles. A cheaper hobby is good for the true collectors who are going to open packs and keep everything but most people want to sell singles. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

There is no breaking point until unemployment meaningfully moves higher.

This.

The last sports market crash was during and directly related to the 2007 economic depression. Prices crashed and were very reasonable all the way until 2017 when Judgemania drove up the price of wax.

Wax was amazingly cheap and so were cards. I got a PSA 7 1961 Bob Gibson for $35, a SGC 5 1963 Koufax for $25, a 1956 Jackie Robinson PSA 3 for $72, a 1980 Vending Box (That included a Henderson rookie that graded a psa 8) for $125, a 1981 Topps Cello pack with Valenzuela rookie on top for $18, 2008 Allen & Ginter 24 pk retail boxes for $40 a piece, 2012 Archives rack boxes for I don't even remember but stupid cheap, 2013 and 2014 heritage high number sets for $40 each, and 2012 Heritage hobby boxes for $35.

2012 was an amazing time to re-enter the hobby.

[jjcan]

While the Dollar Slot Machine still Costs $1. The best jackpots are only is active if you pay more seems like the way all things go these. Odds are never in the gamblers favor.

I think that is why Pokemon is still popular buy in is still affordable, and less and less collectors can jump into the buy point of sports Wax.

But for now, people are still lining up wanting to put their dollars in. Even though the High Limit room looks like it is getting bigger.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

There is no breaking point until unemployment meaningfully moves higher.

I second this.

The ONLY other way which is a 99.99999999% never going to happen is people stop buying breaks and opening products since they lose and only focus on existing singles. Then it would make prices decrease but this will never happen. I am apart of breaking groups (don't buy into them, but just always good to see what is out there) and it rarely never fills up unless it is like 3 hobby boxes of X product at a case prices. Usually fills up fast and then do the minis for the teams that have no hits/key rookies or cards that nobody really wants. Even those still get filled.

[ThoseBackPages]

addiction is a terrible thing

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

There is no breaking point until unemployment meaningfully moves higher.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

This.

The last sports market crash was during and directly related to the 2007 economic depression.

Yep.....basically anybody in the hobby under the age of 35 has never experienced a real economic recession/stock market crash.

All they've ever experienced is low interest rates and rising asset prices....

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by rms13

$300 is secondary market. I think they were like $180-200 from Topps. They're still not printing enough to meet demand. But the pricing of wax is the most boring hobby conversation these days. Yes it's expensive and keeps getting more expensive but everything still sells out so demand is still high. We'll get cheap wax when interest goes down. But when wax prices go down so will singles. A cheaper hobby is good for the true collectors who are going to open packs and keep everything but most people want to sell singles. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Yes of course $300 is secondary, but that seems to be the going rate on all of your online retailers and only slightly less (at least in the two i go to) hobby shops around. And again, that price point to me is insanity. And no sarcasm, genuinely do appreciate the input, but if it's such a boring topic, than what is the more poignant or interesting topic of conversation to you?

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

This.

The last sports market crash was during and directly related to the 2007 economic depression. Prices crashed and were very reasonable all the way until 2017 when Judgemania drove up the price of wax.

2012 was an amazing time to re-enter the hobby.

Interesting perspective and appreciate the thoughts. I fund the comment somewhat funny only because as i mentioned i came back in around 2016ish and found the cost of product to be very reasonable even still in 2017-18. I guess to some degree it is a matter of perspective but i remember buying flagship blasters in 2017 for about $8-10 on ebay which are now what.. something like $40 i believe.

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Unfortunately its just going to go higher. Baseball has been, and still is, very cheap compared to other sports. I don't know that there is a specific breaking point. Especially now with how cheap breakers can factionalize the costs down to individuals. The consumer who likes to buy sealed stuff for themselves are just out of luck. The only thing that stops the direction we are heading is government regulation (which is also no good).

100% agree with you on baseball still being the cheaper of the 3 majors, but i ask the question only because let's say flagship jumbos hit a price point comparable to like a Bowman is/was in recent years... so something like $475-500, if there is still a market for that than ill be damned. And i do also agree with you on your point about breakers, which have pros and cons themselves. I think breaking is a great thing but it's pretty sad that has become the only real way to reasonably get into the majority of products and not feel like you're risking a limb.

[cl456123]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Until people decide to leave the hobby, prices will continue to go up. The demand is there so it's not stopping anytime soon. The only way prices may go down is if the three major sports allows multiple licenses to make cards after fanatics' exclusive runs out.

You think panini was bad, wait a few years and you'll be wishing they were still around.

I never understood why people hated on panini to begin with even for unlicensed baseball stuff because at least it was competition and it's well known fact that competition in any market is a positive.

I'm just not as active these days as i was 5-8 years ago in the market as a whole so i genuinely didn't know/realize that demand is really still that strong at the current prices. I bought zero packs/boxes of 2025 Series 1 and bought into zero breaks because i was able to buy a handful of singles I liked for something like 200 bucks and probably couldn't pull what i was interested in if i spent 1500 on an entire case so while i know everyone doesn't have that kind of mindframe of logical thinking in it, but i just cant imagine spending that kind of money on flagship let alone some of the higher end stuff.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Yep.....basically anybody in the hobby under the age of 35 has never experienced a real economic recession/stock market crash.

All they've ever experienced is low interest rates and rising asset prices....

Both of these are of little relevance to any individual. A recession only matters to you if you lose your job or your wages get cut. The market declining is a positive unless your time horizon is very short. The US market’s positive long-term returns are undefeated.

[Rbradleigh]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Both of these are of little relevance to any individual. A recession only matters to you if you lose your job or your wages get cut. The market declining is a positive unless your time horizon is very short. The US market’s positive long-term returns are undefeated.

To add as well, I don’t see where rising asset prices help/equate to increasing purchasing power. I sure as hell aren’t selling assets to buy baseball cards.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by cl456123

I never understood why people hated on panini to begin with even for unlicensed baseball stuff because at least it was competition and it's well known fact that competition in any market is a positive.

I'm just not as active these days as i was 5-8 years ago in the market as a whole so i genuinely didn't know/realize that demand is really still that strong at the current prices. I bought zero packs/boxes of 2025 Series 1 and bought into zero breaks because i was able to buy a handful of singles I liked for something like 200 bucks and probably couldn't pull what i was interested in if i spent 1500 on an entire case so while i know everyone doesn't have that kind of mindframe of logical thinking in it, but i just cant imagine spending that kind of money on flagship let alone some of the higher end stuff.

Current unopened box buyer, I know I've shifted my buying habits over the last 3+ years to singles.

Simple fact: More product is being made, hit ratio is going down.

More parallels/colors/"case hits" being produced. Perceived scarcity, etc.


I still love to collect, but the current market is a singles market. When I want to bust, I'll buy a cheap blaster or mega for fun with absolutly no expectation I will hit anything of substance.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Rbradleigh

To add as well, I don’t see where rising asset prices help/equate to increasing purchasing power. I sure as hell aren’t selling assets to buy baseball cards.

It’s the positive vibes phenomenon. A rising retirement account generates a positive attitude, which stimulates spending for your average American. It shouldn’t, but it does.

I don’t spend more when the market is rising, but I do spend less when it’s falling. Because I am diverting more and more cash to equities.

[Poorboy]

So as I asked in another thread how does fanatics make money
If nobody can buy wax? If only 10 -20 percent of collectors can buy
A 1000 dollar or more box?
What does that do to singles market? Or the market as a whole?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Poorboy

So as I asked in another thread how does fanatics make money
If nobody can buy wax? If only 10 -20 percent of collectors can buy
A 1000 dollar or more box?
What does that do to singles market? Or the market as a whole?

Anyone can buy wax.

You can get into a break for $1.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Both of these are of little relevance to any individual. A recession only matters to you if you lose your job or your wages get cut.

Yes and no.

Consumer confidence is a real thing (which is why it is measured every month), and when asset values are declining, people spend less.

You also have to factor in debt.....quite a few people have taken out margin loans to day-trade, gamble on crypto, gamble on sports cards, etc.

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Anyone can buy wax.

You can get into a break for $1.

Ok but you know what I meant lol

[Poorboy]

I don’t see all of us going into breaks or buying junk wax?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Poorboy

I don’t see all of us going into breaks or buying junk wax?

There are more singles guys here on this board now than degenerate gamblers.

It’s rare to see a post of someone who shows off their break winnings - probably less than 1% of all posts.

Many degenerate gamblers like the anonymity of getting into breaks instead of opening their own boxes and posting their pulls so they can hide behind their addiction. Nobody wants to hear about margin calls, massive credit card debt and begging mommy and daddy for more funds.