Signs We are Near Some Type of Top

asymmetricalbet · 07-26-2025, 07:21 AM

I'm not necessarily saying this is THE top. I'm just saying things are very very frothy. I'm curious what other people are seeing. I'm looking for unique ideas or datapoints. WE ALL KNOW WAX IS A BAD BUY AND BREAKING IS GAMBLING. So what else are people seeing that indicate we may be near some type of top whether short term or intermediate or maybe you even think this is THE top?

Obviously the Caitlin Clark logowoman sale looks terrible.

I'd also add, the amount of money being spent on non-playing days cards seems absurd to me. There has to be some type of boundaries. Otherwise, every card ever made is at perpetual risk of being supplanted by some new issue. Maybe playing days vs non-playing days isn't the right boundary. Fine. But a line has to exist somewhere otherwise attempting to get a players' best cards it a futile activity.

Other thoughts or things you are seeing?

threepointplay · 07-26-2025, 07:52 AM

Err..there is a 108 page thread (with the last post less than 24 hours old) on this very topic.

chris_ac · 07-26-2025, 10:24 AM

Eh… that’s the point of the chase and your hobby/buying choices on the “non-playing” days cards (retired era till crusty legend or less). If too much cards to consider, then you stick to the former instead of later. Some keep enjoying the choices in the post career and just be selectively in adds. See it with lots of retired HOFers especially. 1/1 and low numbered inserts and sigs still get gobbled long after playing days. Depends on fan base of course.

Archangel1775 · 07-26-2025, 05:24 PM

So you're saying prices are higher than the pandemic?

hermanotarjeta · 07-26-2025, 05:29 PM

Newbies from the pandemic boom are becoming more discriminating - some cards have tanked and others will continue to get pumped.

If crypto and the stock market continue their bull run, we aren’t at the top yet.

If we see a 30-50% drop in the big markets, you can be sure sports cards will follow.

boxbuster7 · 07-26-2025, 07:27 PM

leave caitlin clark out of this please

NBAicons · 07-26-2025, 07:38 PM

Good Lord there is no way we need another thread on this

ninjacookies · 07-27-2025, 12:15 AM

The answer was buttcoin back when it was 27k two winters ago.. And it's still the answer now at 120k.

Nomad · 07-27-2025, 12:20 PM

Buttcoin is never a top.

asujbl · 07-27-2025, 12:30 PM

Blowout gets worse by the day

oldgoldy97 · 07-27-2025, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Blowout gets worse by the day

So it hasn’t topped out.

kingofsnake · 07-27-2025, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

So it hasn’t topped out.

I believe we have a ways to go... into the crevasse.

RKH916 · 07-28-2025, 01:46 AM

One of the best markers for peak bubbles is when every man and his dog are talking about it... making local airwaves is probably a similar indicator

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF--..._channel=CBS17

Going to crash and burn when Fanatics are in the driver's seat

boxbuster7 · 07-28-2025, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Blowout gets worse by the day

I think this place gets better by the day

eastbayak · 07-28-2025, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RKH916

One of the best markers for peak bubbles is when every man and his dog are talking about it... making local airwaves is probably a similar indicator

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF--..._channel=CBS17

Going to crash and burn when Fanatics are in the driver's seat

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/27/econo...elters-economy

auctionjmm · 07-28-2025, 12:34 PM

Considering this is the basketball section, I would say we just got through one of the worst rookie classes in history and are now heading towards a presumably great class with Topps' 1st year back in business. If Cooper Flagg does anything, we are nowhere near the top.

boxbuster7 · 07-28-2025, 02:35 PM

Cooper Flagg is going to be a massive bust

dani0100 · 07-28-2025, 03:50 PM

What in the H E double hockey sticks is this guy on about? Basketball market is presently down 75% from highs of covid days. Top? We're still working to the bottom as far as I can tell.

90skid · 07-28-2025, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dani0100

What in the H E double hockey sticks is this guy on about? Basketball market is presently down 75% from highs of covid days. Top? We're still working to the bottom as far as I can tell.

Meanwhile highly sought after Jordan's on fanatic's collect weekly auction's hit new highs each week...hmmm...

Edit:

That first huge spike is the 2021 mania.

hermanotarjeta · 07-28-2025, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 90skid

Meanwhile highly sought after Jordan's on fanatic's collect weekly auction's hit new highs each week...hmmm...

Edit:

That first huge spike is the 2021 mania.

I’d love to see the chart for LeBron third year laker prizm silver rookies!

boxbuster7 · 07-28-2025, 07:56 PM

to be fair that chart is very easily manipulable

RKH916 · 07-28-2025, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Cooper Flagg is going to be a massive bust

Unpopular opinion but I agree

cms11 · 07-29-2025, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Cooper Flagg is going to be a massive bust

I don't see it. I'm not as high on him as most people, but I see him as Banchero with better defense. It would be difficult for him to be an outright bust, but I can see him hover in that All-Star range without being All-NBA.

ninjacookies · 07-29-2025, 10:19 PM

2 separate issues:

1) hobby bust: absolutely. Industry's driven by gaudy inefficient ppg totals. Almost always a number 1 overall is going to a bottom feeder franchise reliant on their first pick to run most facets of the offense where empty stats don't compromise their bottom line. Gentrified Tatum's going to a play-in squad with 2 superstars that still hold championship aspirations. Odds favor him going well under 20 points per game and most likely not many assists or boards due to Rie and Ad handling the bulk of those categories.

2) Real life bust? Highly unlikely. His current strength is his defense which will always give him good value in the league. And he's above average at the 3/4 by almost every metric. His baseline is quite high.

I suppose the only real scenario where he's an actual bust is if his career takes a Wiggins type trajectory, where his offensive capabilities never reached their expected potential. Feasible, but Coop's far more gifted size wise with exponentially better playmaking ability. We probably won't see what he's truly capable of until year 3 or 4 once the elder statesmen have either moved on or lost most of their skill. He's definitely not in a rookie year Wemby type scenario.

Anything's possible, I suppose.

Nomad · 07-29-2025, 10:46 PM

On balance sounds like a buy. In the Nesmith sense. He will be learning from veterans, he will be focusing on defense, those are ingredients that lead to deep playoff runs 2-3 years in.

Whereas with Wemby, are we expecting the Spurs to take over the league in next two seasons?

07-26-2025, 07:21 AM	#1
asymmetricalbet Member Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 145	Signs We are Near Some Type of Top I'm not necessarily saying this is THE top. I'm just saying things are very very frothy. I'm curious what other people are seeing. I'm looking for unique ideas or datapoints. WE ALL KNOW WAX IS A BAD BUY AND BREAKING IS GAMBLING. So what else are people seeing that indicate we may be near some type of top whether short term or intermediate or maybe you even think this is THE top? Obviously the Caitlin Clark logowoman sale looks terrible. I'd also add, the amount of money being spent on non-playing days cards seems absurd to me. There has to be some type of boundaries. Otherwise, every card ever made is at perpetual risk of being supplanted by some new issue. Maybe playing days vs non-playing days isn't the right boundary. Fine. But a line has to exist somewhere otherwise attempting to get a players' best cards it a futile activity. Other thoughts or things you are seeing? Last edited by asymmetricalbet; 07-26-2025 at 07:23 AM.

07-26-2025, 10:24 AM	#3
chris_ac Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,272	Eh… that’s the point of the chase and your hobby/buying choices on the “non-playing” days cards (retired era till crusty legend or less). If too much cards to consider, then you stick to the former instead of later. Some keep enjoying the choices in the post career and just be selectively in adds. See it with lots of retired HOFers especially. 1/1 and low numbered inserts and sigs still get gobbled long after playing days. Depends on fan base of course. __________________ PC (NFS/NFT): Anze Kopitar/Justin Jefferson/Victor Wembanyama IG: playerclector

07-26-2025, 05:24 PM	#4
Archangel1775 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Cali baby! Posts: 21,820	So you're saying prices are higher than the pandemic? __________________ *There are the intangibles that set someone apart from the pack.So the blur isn't your inability to see his greatness, it's merely the inability to measure it.*

07-26-2025, 07:27 PM	#6
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 12,284 boxbuster777	leave caitlin clark out of this please __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

07-27-2025, 12:15 AM	#8
ninjacookies Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: All the girls see the (boi)/ Look at his flips / Look at his kards / All they say is (oh boi). Posts: 56,684	The answer was buttcoin back when it was 27k two winters ago.. And it's still the answer now at 120k. __________________ #5 world ranked Ledell Eackles superclection as recognized by Tuff Stuff junior managing editor, Barry McCaulkinner. Somethin' like a cross between Teddy Aguhob and Kaboom Mystery Packs. I got that Givenchy denim flow.

07-26-2025, 07:52 AM	#2
threepointplay Member Join Date: May 2012 Location: United Kingdom Posts: 690	Err..there is a 108 page thread (with the last post less than 24 hours old) on this very topic.

07-26-2025, 05:29 PM	#5
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 20,993	Newbies from the pandemic boom are becoming more discriminating - some cards have tanked and others will continue to get pumped. If crypto and the stock market continue their bull run, we aren’t at the top yet. If we see a 30-50% drop in the big markets, you can be sure sports cards will follow.

07-26-2025, 07:38 PM	#7
NBAicons Member Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 247	Good Lord there is no way we need another thread on this

07-27-2025, 12:20 PM	#9
Nomad Banned Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 8,094	Buttcoin is never a top.

07-27-2025, 12:30 PM	#10
asujbl Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 62,679 ohiosundevils	Blowout gets worse by the day __________________ https://ohiosundevils.smugmug.com/ Browns/Cavs/Tribe/Buckeyes/Jackets/Devils TheFrenzy - “Blowout ain't a place for normies”

07-28-2025, 01:46 AM	#13
RKH916 Member Join Date: Oct 2024 Posts: 426	One of the best markers for peak bubbles is when every man and his dog are talking about it... making local airwaves is probably a similar indicator https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF--..._channel=CBS17 Going to crash and burn when Fanatics are in the driver's seat Last edited by RKH916; 07-28-2025 at 01:48 AM.

07-28-2025, 12:34 PM	#16
auctionjmm Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Cleveland, OH Posts: 9,960 auctionjmm	Considering this is the basketball section, I would say we just got through one of the worst rookie classes in history and are now heading towards a presumably great class with Topps' 1st year back in business. If Cooper Flagg does anything, we are nowhere near the top.

07-28-2025, 02:35 PM	#17
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 12,284 boxbuster777	Cooper Flagg is going to be a massive bust __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

07-28-2025, 03:50 PM	#18
dani0100 Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Location: Fargo, ND Posts: 677	What in the H E double hockey sticks is this guy on about? Basketball market is presently down 75% from highs of covid days. Top? We're still working to the bottom as far as I can tell.

07-28-2025, 07:56 PM	#21
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 12,284 boxbuster777	to be fair that chart is very easily manipulable __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

07-29-2025, 10:19 PM	#24
ninjacookies Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: All the girls see the (boi)/ Look at his flips / Look at his kards / All they say is (oh boi). Posts: 56,684	2 separate issues: 1) hobby bust: absolutely. Industry's driven by gaudy inefficient ppg totals. Almost always a number 1 overall is going to a bottom feeder franchise reliant on their first pick to run most facets of the offense where empty stats don't compromise their bottom line. Gentrified Tatum's going to a play-in squad with 2 superstars that still hold championship aspirations. Odds favor him going well under 20 points per game and most likely not many assists or boards due to Rie and Ad handling the bulk of those categories. 2) Real life bust? Highly unlikely. His current strength is his defense which will always give him good value in the league. And he's above average at the 3/4 by almost every metric. His baseline is quite high. I suppose the only real scenario where he's an actual bust is if his career takes a Wiggins type trajectory, where his offensive capabilities never reached their expected potential. Feasible, but Coop's far more gifted size wise with exponentially better playmaking ability. We probably won't see what he's truly capable of until year 3 or 4 once the elder statesmen have either moved on or lost most of their skill. He's definitely not in a rookie year Wemby type scenario. Anything's possible, I suppose. __________________ #5 world ranked Ledell Eackles superclection as recognized by Tuff Stuff junior managing editor, Barry McCaulkinner. Somethin' like a cross between Teddy Aguhob and Kaboom Mystery Packs. I got that Givenchy denim flow.

07-29-2025, 10:46 PM	#25
Nomad Banned Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Fomenting FOMO on the down low. Posts: 8,094	On balance sounds like a buy. In the Nesmith sense. He will be learning from veterans, he will be focusing on defense, those are ingredients that lead to deep playoff runs 2-3 years in. Whereas with Wemby, are we expecting the Spurs to take over the league in next two seasons?