Impact of Tariffs on Card Market

[detroitbball]

I'm just curious what anyone with more knowledge than me thinks regarding tariffs and their impact on the modern card market. I've gathered that a certain amount of Panini product is sold into the Chinese market, and some of that is ripped and then sold back into the U.S. Market. Tariffs (and the end of deminimus shipments) would seem to destroy that pathway. So curious what that might do to overall demand for wax. Will panini be sitting on Chinese product that has been printed that they now have to sell into the U.S.via Target or whatever? I'm not sure how it all works honestly.

[ninjacookies]

Every Artee in the international database set to relocate to the US to avoid the doldrums.

All high end packages now set to be forwarded to a trap house off Slauson & Crenshaw.

[ThatGuyPal]

This thread is more confusing than the tariffs.

Pretty sure Canada is gonna get it the worst since large retailers have already stopped shipping there due to the tariffs.

[Nomad]

I'll just spin three posts from the wrong thread into one hot take:

Liberation day is like a step back. It's gonna make two hasty steps forward a necessity.

But if it solves non-market correlated box prices, it can be considered a minor hobby victory for those who live off the land and don't buy other stuff.

So many don't have the self awareness and restraint to live within their means (been there).

Freedom comes from taking time to think about actions before doing them. LeTarrifs reflects a whole demographic who have zero patience and ability to reflect on the fact that most of the material inputs that would even underpin a domestic manufacturing base (should it come about in several years) come from other countries.

You also need to pay people meaningful salaries to do things, unless a slave economy is the model. And that requires a stable system. My gut feeling is that some in the current admin consider Russia's war economy a success. But Moscow has been particularly careful not to burn bridges with the trading partners it relies on for most of its shells, drones, ammunition, and soldiers.

Silver lining: with the right leading edge advisors in place, a 10-25 percent tariff can be wound back as specific goals are complied with. When I devised this strategy in graduate school 15 years ago, I was focused on using trade levers to attain sustainability goals, but our current era no green.

A hobby analogy:

Let's say you want to block forged Skybox Premium Rubies flooding in from Canada and the basement cartels are making that impossible. You don't want to make every DHL shipment a frisk-and-search and every eBay transaction grounds for legal action. Get that compliance figured out, by whatever means, and then proceed with business as usual.

Such principles can be applied on the macro, sovereign company level. You want to flood us with overpriced product and keep all the profits, allowing the downstream to eke losses (amid the rare lottery-like gains) you need to re-earn the hobby's trust. We will not accept or break your warmed up Pinnacle, even if it has another cooler 90s set seeded. Similarly, Topps Chrome can never be AI generated and then proudly recycled into Topps Finest without consequences.

So basically, if used as a short, sharp carrot-stick strategem, tarrifs can be effective. If not and the dollar tanks, I would be putting as much money as possible into basketball cards as the one truly international collectible with a dedicated diamond-hands value base.

[Gem10collection]

I remember Dr. Beckett said during the crash of 87 sports cards actually went up in value. Not sure if the same today but I doubt prices are going down.

[Gem10collection]

Looks like collectable automobiles are exempt from tariffs (Bloomberg). I wonder if the same for other collectables including sports cards?

[dizzy4111]

I would guess the high end market won't affected too much. While the cards that us normal plebs buy might go down a little bit.

[Nomad]

So it's win-win.

[Archangel1775]

It has been reported that PSA may charge tariffs based on the value of the graded card, not the service. I thought that was strange.

[dizzy4111]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

It has been reported that PSA may charge tariffs based on the value of the graded card, not the service. I thought that was strange.

That's based upon the language of the tariffs. They have no choice.

[Nomad]

I think the hobby would be better served than worrying about tariffs, which are a small putative x, by worrying about the intangibles that make some players' shine and have value in the hobby.

For example (and again could apply to 5-6 "unknown" players who will be booking 25-30 minutes a game): if Nesmith got MVP in a series, could my comprehensive collection be considered worth, say, $100k?

If I can as a novice collector have some chance of investing $10k and 10xing my returns, then anyone can do it (or follow the advice of those with basketball sense).

I don't want to have to go all the way to Miami and pull out the silver Kobe from the vault to prove that the same applies to vintage too.

[Sticks33]

I think it really depends on how long the tariffs last. Tariffs are basically like pulling a parking brake on the entire economy. If they last for an extended time, card prices will be a minor worry.

[Nomad]

Right, if you can trade a base Iverson rookie for a dozen eggs, that's something.

[slyguy]

If you're worried about tarriffs affecting sports cards, I don't know what to tell ya.

Maybe worry about how they affect your stocks, your business supplies/materials, your employer's supplies/materials, things you or your fam spends a lot more on than sports cards. Lol.

Originally Posted by Sticks33

I think it really depends on how long the tariffs last. Tariffs are basically like pulling a parking brake on the entire economy. If they last for an extended time, card prices will be a minor worry.

Yes.

The whole point is (supposedly) to get other nations to drop tariffs on USA and we'll drop also.

[Nomad]

There is a lot more packed into them, probably AI tailored to each country.

For example, with a few nations it might mean stopping drone and 5G surveillance and at least compensate us for the smart-device IPR and top secret plans (harvested by being the lowest-price contract bidder) now being used to prepare for war against us.

For others it might mean, show some economic viability beyond penguins and slowing global warming.

For still others, it might be if you are trying to start a world war in Europe's backdoor, you will be frozen out of the system (a backdoor win for leap frogging sustainability technologies). I know some trade people, I taught them creative ways of thinking, don't know if it will have much effect.

Would hate to have Al Davis for a coach. But for a short time, had its disruptive moments.

[cms11]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

I think it really depends on how long the tariffs last. Tariffs are basically like pulling a parking brake on the entire economy. If they last for an extended time, card prices will be a minor worry.

This is the entire problem with making predictions. The flip-flopper in chief could say he got what he wanted from other countries and cancel the tariffs tomorrow.

[Nomad]

Pretty good analysis of the situation at the moment by Scaramucci.

And by the way, all joking aside, of course it will affect people's ability to afford boxes and breaking. A lot of stuff will tank and that will affect a lot of mom n'pop collector/investors.

The truly rare will probably hold or gain value.

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by slyguy

If you're worried about tarriffs affecting sports cards, I don't know what to tell ya.

Maybe worry about how they affect your stocks, your business supplies/materials, your employer's supplies/materials, things you or your fam spends a lot more on than sports cards. Lol.

Yes.

The whole point is (supposedly) to get other nations to drop tariffs on USA and we'll drop also.

They used AI to craft these and didn't even base it on foreign tariffs in US goods, merely trade deficits lmao.

If anyone ever thinks a country like Vietnam will not have a surplus or parity with the US they're smoking crack. Most countries on earth have smaller or less wealthy consumer bases so of course they would buy less goods than they export in many of these cases.

[Nomad]

If I recall, Vietnam has a strong imbalance in its favor. It's where companies seeking not to do business in China set up manufacturing. The question is, why do we want to destroy the manufacturing of electronics, apparel and consumer goods in East Asia?

I mean higher end, maybe for strategic reasons we want semiconductor and hardware manufacturing in US, and Apple's pledged $4 billion domestic investment is a nice step in that direction. But tanking the system to get ass. Hm...

[dayrider1973]

Originally Posted by Nomad

There is a lot more packed into them, probably AI tailored to each country.

For example, with a few nations it might mean stopping drone and 5G surveillance and at least compensate us for the smart-device IPR and top secret plans (harvested by being the lowest-price contract bidder) now being used to prepare for war against us.

For others it might mean, show some economic viability beyond penguins and slowing global warming.

For still others, it might be if you are trying to start a world war in Europe's backdoor, you will be frozen out of the system (a backdoor win for leap frogging sustainability technologies). I know some trade people, I taught them creative ways of thinking, don't know if it will have much effect.

Would hate to have Al Davis for a coach. But for a short time, had its disruptive moments.

This is 👍!!!!

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by Nomad

If I recall, Vietnam has a strong imbalance in its favor. It's where companies seeking not to do business in China set up manufacturing. The question is, why do we want to destroy the manufacturing of electronics, apparel and consumer goods in East Asia?

I mean higher end, maybe for strategic reasons we want semiconductor and hardware manufacturing in US, and Apple's pledged $4 billion domestic investment is a nice step in that direction. But tanking the system to get ass. Hm...

Outside of specialized manufacturing most of the "jobs" will be done by robots anyway. Even if not, you probably make more as a tradesman or a service worker in this country anyway so idk who would even want or need most of the crappy jobs that would come back that can't be automated.

[Nomad]

One reason I am not too concerned about card prices, in an era of tariffs, is that I think back to the last major disruptor, the pandemic. The time a large portion of the globe had to step back and ponder whether China's opaque system, which allowed a novel virus to get out of lab and to the wet market undetected, and spread without scientific review for four months, was a burden or a favor.

In other words, it's always yin and yang. There are always opposing forces looking to be the only one that gets through to the second round.

Can other forms of commerce coexist during a financially disruptive period and allow people to thrive? Well, you could say we tested that out during the pandemic. And in every major country except Russia, people found equitable ways to make life bearable for all. To such an extent, that China did not even want to relax travel restrictions two years later.

I remember coming through a cavernous, empty Honk Kong International in early 2022 with all my cool cards, mostly 90s with a nascent Nesmith collection of like a couple Absolute sticker RPAs and Origins thick pen autos as highlights. There was a 12 hour wait for my connection with like less than a hundred passengers waiting around for the next international flight out. No one wanted to take off their mask. I bought a bottle of wine.

So yeah, cards actually increase in value when people have more time to chillax. And if we weather these systems right, LeTarrif era will be another one of sustenance through knickknacks that suddenly everyone has time to admire and want.

Interestingly, there will be a bit of pain. If people are no longer really buying Lamello, Zion, (and potentially Ja), the correction will be steep and sharp for veteran collectors who were newbies at the time. Add to that, Wemby has actually missed the boat on the moment. Cause this playoffs will be watched by many seeking an escape and prolly launch a couple careers, in actuality if not in the hobby.

[ninjabum87]

During covid a lot of people still had income streams they just couldn't go anywhere or have an outlet for their pent up energies. This could be a lot different if things go sideways.

[Nomad]

Ah because of the background of all these kind of wars?

[Harper]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

During covid a lot of people still had income streams they just couldn't go anywhere or have an outlet for their pent up energies. This could be a lot different if things go sideways.

Yes this is very different than COVID lockdowns. There were stipends from the government then. Government spending on taxpayers is reducing not increasing. And base expenditures are rising with travel/tourism options remaining viable. I bet this time we will see cards crash at least 40%. Demand is just going to plummet in my opinion.