Soccer valuations....what's overvalued....what's undervalued....

[mfw13]

So....have been thinking about this lately as I've been going through and cataloging my soccer card collection, and thought I'd start a thread on which people could discuss the topic.

Here's my opinion:

Pretty much everything released since 2014 is overvalued....there are some exceptions, to be sure, but there has been a LOT of new product being churned out, especially the last few years.

And there are a lot of young players being hyped far beyond what their careers will eventually justify. The reality is that there are only a couple of superstars in each generation, and that cards of mere "stars" get quickly forgotten/ignored once the next group of young players arrive. It's not coincidence that Messi & CR7 are the only two superstars who have been able to sustain a market over the past 15+ years.

Two areas that I think are undervalued are the A&BC/Topps cards from the 60's/70's, which are very hard to find in nice condition, as well as the many Serie A products from the 90's, when the league was full of superstars and the best league in the world, and Merlin/Topps Premier Gold products from the late 90's/early 00's. You've also got some interest stuff like Topps' one-off 92-93 Premier League Stadium Club product, and the 1978/82 Monty Gum World Cup sets, which feature the only full-size World Cup cards for quite a few superstars. Likewise, vintage non-rookie cards seem to be getting largely ignored.

For example, I just picked up a nice EX-Mt 1970 A&BC card of Bobby Moore for $15.....that's a steal in my book.....

Thoughts?

[Gin&Juice]

I just don't see non-rookie vintage ever really catching. Just too few of today's collectors (at least in the US) know the names or care about the history of the game. In fact, that seems to be the case in all sports. Think about how cheap you can pick up non-rookie cards of guys like Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Bob Gibson, even Hank Aaron in baseball; Oscar Robertson, Walt Frazier, Jerry West, John Stockton, Karl Malone, Willis Reed, Robert Parish, etc in basketball; Walter Payton, Ronnie Lott, Gale Sayers, Tony Gonzalez, Eric Dickerson, etc. in football.

For fans and collectors, I think the sets you mentioned are great options to build a collection at a reasonable cost. But, in terms, of investment, seems like a long, slow climb. (Which is ok by me).

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Gin&Juice

I just don't see non-rookie vintage ever really catching. Just too few of today's collectors (at least in the US) know the names or care about the history of the game. In fact, that seems to be the case in all sports. Think about how cheap you can pick up non-rookie cards of guys like Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Bob Gibson, even Hank Aaron in baseball; Oscar Robertson, Walt Frazier, Jerry West, John Stockton, Karl Malone, Willis Reed, Robert Parish, etc in basketball; Walter Payton, Ronnie Lott, Gale Sayers, Tony Gonzalez, Eric Dickerson, etc. in football.

For fans and collectors, I think the sets you mentioned are great options to build a collection at a reasonable cost. But, in terms, of investment, seems like a long, slow climb. (Which is ok by me).

I understand what you're saying, but the difference is supply/availability.

Do an EBay search for "1970 Topps Nolan Ryan" and you get 83 listings & 238 completed sales.

Do an EBay search for "1970 A&BC Bobby Charlton" and you get 3 base cards for sale and 2 completed sales.

Yes, demand is going to be lower for the top soccer players of any era as compared to top baseball players, but the supply is going to be MUCH, MUCH, MUCH lower.

There just aren't very many A&BC/Topps cards out there from the 60's/70's, especially in decent condition.

And with regard to the 90's, the number of Beckham or Zidane cards out there is probably 1% of the number of Griffey or Jeter cards, if that.

So it's not going to take a lot of demand to soak up the absolutely miniscule supply.

[k13]

Lewandowski
Kane
Suarez
Zlatan
Buffon
Neuer
Rooney

If you think everything 2014 + is overvalued then check the population of 2016 Euro prizm silvers....

2014-2016 is a great period because production was low and had minimal parallels.

No one has heard of the players from the 60's/70s and cards that were distributed locally on some cereal box don't excite everyone.

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by Gin&Juice

I just don't see non-rookie vintage ever really catching. Just too few of today's collectors (at least in the US) know the names or care about the history of the game. In fact, that seems to be the case in all sports. Think about how cheap you can pick up non-rookie cards of guys like Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Bob Gibson, even Hank Aaron in baseball; Oscar Robertson, Walt Frazier, Jerry West, John Stockton, Karl Malone, Willis Reed, Robert Parish, etc in basketball; Walter Payton, Ronnie Lott, Gale Sayers, Tony Gonzalez, Eric Dickerson, etc. in football.

This so true for the most part. Across all sports. I've been collecting cards from various sports since the mid-70s and this trend has only accelerated. The huge value difference in fine gradations of very high condition cards is another one. Barring a collapse in the market, I don't see these trends reversing much.

That said, in the vintage soccer market, I think the exceptions are clearly the early cards of the GOATs. A combinations of factors lead there. In the 50s, 60s, and early 70s there were a lot of sets from different countries and it is hard to define a clear winner of THE rookie card, so all of them have some value. We don't know the print run of a lot of these sets, but some must have been quite low. We do know how many of these cards hit the grading companies and the market, and in some cases these are remarkably low populations considering the global reputation of the players. Early Pele and Maradona, for example, are nearly impossible to find in nice condition without an astronomical price tag. But I'm not sure these prices will go much higher without a significant international expansion in collectors. The vintage cards I find interesting (and have been buying over the last year) are Cruyff, Zico, and Garrincha RCs or early cards.

In the modern card market, I think soccer will follow baseball and that serial number and auto cards are likely to see increased value. The PSA and BGS 10 RCs without some built-in population control might not fare as well. As they increase in value, more people will get raw cards graded and eventually dilute the value, maybe enough to compensate for increased demand.

It's a very interesting question.

[fadster]

I think there are two questions who and what.

Who: A mix of greats and prospects. For greats you can go anywhere from say the top few to the best couple of hundred players of all time. Prospects are more about risk appetite than specific names, for the risk averse the premium baked in makes them too expensive, to others it's the most fun aspect of collecting with highest returns.

What: I prefer low pop stuff. Usually there are a few reasons for something to be low pop. Limited print run cards, eg numbered cards, colour or refractor type cards. High grade copies of hard to grade releases, usually domestic releases like Megacracks or Panini national league stickers. And lastly vintage key releases, knowing which manufacturer was popular, where and when.

[reddragonthe]

I want to say everything is overvalued. Not just soccer, all over. Or pretty much everything. But that's maybe too lazy.

Overvalued: Autos. Players are smart enough to know what they are worth. They like a little add'l income. And when they start signing... it seems like they don't stop. So even previously "hard to get" autos are quickly much easier to get. Plus so many stickers. Obvious exceptions will exist... but star rookies, all time greats, and some limited guys that just don't sign a lot is about it. Most of the stuff in wax these days is eventual garbage. I think that's true across all sports.

Overvalued: Base slabs. Maybe they are getting tougher. Maybe there aren't. Like debating religion on here. But I think we are in a junk slab era. I think unless we are talking a tough grade or something particularly special, we are seeing the same thing we saw with wax during junk wax era... only now with slabs. Huge rush because people think they'll be rich. TONS of volume. TONS of new companies. Everyone is great. Everyone is better. What happened to all those Junk Wax companies? What do we think of those cards from that era?

Undervalued: Not much. We've all scoured for any kind of opportunity in the last 18 months. But I (gasp) agree with k13. I think there are still some pockets of players with interesting stuff. Stars that have NOT gotten the same love as some of the big boys but arguably better. Even some of their modern stuff...

Undervalued: ... Game worn materials for stars. Especially nice stuff. It may change... but I think star soccer game used stuff just is harder to find in cardboard. Maybe it is acquisition cost. Maybe manufacturing pain in the butt. Who knows. But nice, low numbered game used stuff I think has a better chance of gaining steam than a lot of things. Again, for the stars.

[YayNJ]

the last truly undervalued cards in the Hobby were UFC and that boat has sailed now too in the last 12 months

over-valued? slabbed base cards. If I were the hobby God, every single one would be melted down and fired towards Jupiter.

[44gwilson]

I’m probably going slightly against the grain here but I still think soccer is massively undervalued. I’ve been in other markets for a few years and basketball in particular is was overvalued at this stage. I’ve probably bought the most cards ever during this market “crash”, because I think soccer will rebound and then continue on an upward trajectory for the next few years. To me anything numbered Ronaldo/Messi is gold and I think prices are already starting to reflect that but there’s definitely still good margins there.

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by 44gwilson

I’m probably going slightly against the grain here but I still think soccer is massively undervalued. I’ve been in other markets for a few years and basketball in particular is was overvalued at this stage. I’ve probably bought the most cards ever during this market “crash”, because I think soccer will rebound and then continue on an upward trajectory for the next few years. To me anything numbered Ronaldo/Messi is gold and I think prices are already starting to reflect that but there’s definitely still good margins there.

Absolutely, 100% this! Much like different sectors in the equity market, the card market has different "sectors". Although all markets are lower, soccer is very much an "Emerging Market" as far as cards go, and the longer term potential is still massive. As is always the case however, with lower prices the good stuff mostly goes into hiding as holders just put better cards away for their personal collections. When the market was rising and active, people were willing to sell as they were likely buying into or moving up to something better. That has all ground to a halt right now.

If I had to name specific overvalued and undervalued sets, I would place most base World Cup into overvalued up to and including the 2018 set. This is the stuff I have sold and avoided. Undervalued would be any World Cup numbered parallels, and Topps 2017-18 and 2018-19 Chrome UEFA Champions League Refractors and Coloured Parallels. Print runs on these cards were miniscule compared to recent releases, and even unopened boxes are very hard to find now. I believe these cards will explode in value, and they are already pretty much impossible to find at reasonable prices. I also believe that WCCF cards have tremendous upside and have been accumulating these for years.

Regards

[weichni]

I dont know if it has been posted before, but lots of vintage soccer is massively undervalued in my opinion.

People are starting to know certain all time greats outside of Pele and Maradona, but the wide range of collectors does not know the particular sets yet.
And more importantly people do not know how hard cards from these sets are to find in good condition.
Biggest thing there probably being cards that have not been glued to albums, what was the standard for nearly all sets.
In Baseball (or other sports) you just look at pop reports for lets say a PSA 5 and then you get 1000 cards with X graded higher.
For soccer many of these numbers are like 3-5 PSA 5s with 5 graded higher.
Surely the pop report will evolve over time, but we´ll never reach levels of the big 3 US sports.

To me personally this is super super exciting. Learning the history of the pre-war greats, finding new sets from all over Europe, ...

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by weichni

I dont know if it has been posted before, but lots of vintage soccer is massively undervalued in my opinion.

People are starting to know certain all time greats outside of Pele and Maradona, but the wide range of collectors does not know the particular sets yet.
And more importantly people do not know how hard cards from these sets are to find in good condition.
Biggest thing there probably being cards that have not been glued to albums, what was the standard for nearly all sets.
In Baseball (or other sports) you just look at pop reports for lets say a PSA 5 and then you get 1000 cards with X graded higher.
For soccer many of these numbers are like 3-5 PSA 5s with 5 graded higher.
Surely the pop report will evolve over time, but we´ll never reach levels of the big 3 US sports.

To me personally this is super super exciting. Learning the history of the pre-war greats, finding new sets from all over Europe, ...

weichni,

I completely agree with 99% of what you say, but in my opinion there are a couple of big problems with "vintage" soccer that may keep prices suppressed. These problems are A) Cohesiveness or continuity of sets and B) Condition.

On the first point, there is no standard set/company/brand that has continuously produced cards and sets of cards for a long period of time like we see in baseball/basketball/football. People who collect like to have something that binds their collection together, and with vintage soccer this is missing. You have a bunch of oddball sets, made by various companies, in various sizes.

On the second point, the fact that these cards/stickers are in poor condition might turn off people who are used to collecting "perfect" PSA 10's.

I also learned some lessons from other markets that SHOULD hold true here as well. Just because something is rare, or produced in very small numbers, does not necessarily equate to collectability or a high value. I do not want to write a book here, but if you need to spend an hour explaining to a collector why something is rare, then you have probably lost the battle before it has begun. Something stamped 1/1 or 5/10 is a concept that everyone can instantly understand and come to grips with.

These are just some thoughts from my experience. I do not necessarily agree with them all, but they are ideas that hold true in other markets, so I have no reason to doubt that the same should be true in this market.

At the end of the day, collect what you enjoy and makes you happy, and if that means you are swimming against the tide, then so be it!

Regards

[fadster]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

weichni,

I completely agree with 99% of what you say, but in my opinion there are a couple of big problems with "vintage" soccer that may keep prices suppressed. These problems are A) Cohesiveness or continuity of sets and B) Condition.

On the first point, there is no standard set/company/brand that has continuously produced cards and sets of cards for a long period of time like we see in baseball/basketball/football. People who collect like to have something that binds their collection together, and with vintage soccer this is missing. You have a bunch of oddball sets, made by various companies, in various sizes.

On the second point, the fact that these cards/stickers are in poor condition might turn off people who are used to collecting "perfect" PSA 10's.

I also learned some lessons from other markets that SHOULD hold true here as well. Just because something is rare, or produced in very small numbers, does not necessarily equate to collectability or a high value. I do not want to write a book here, but if you need to spend an hour explaining to a collector why something is rare, then you have probably lost the battle before it has begun. Something stamped 1/1 or 5/10 is a concept that everyone can instantly understand and come to grips with.

These are just some thoughts from my experience. I do not necessarily agree with them all, but they are ideas that hold true in other markets, so I have no reason to doubt that the same should be true in this market.

At the end of the day, collect what you enjoy and makes you happy, and if that means you are swimming against the tide, then so be it!

Regards

I disagree about continuity, Panini has been in the game for almost as long as Topps has been in Baseball, the likes of Topps, A&BC, Barratt, Bergmann, Nannina, Ogdens to name a few were around for decades, no different to say Upper Deck, Bowman, Goudey, and various Tobacco brands, etc. I'd also add people have been collecting those brands for a long time and are well catalogued so it's not a case of things staring from zero just being discovered. I know this forum has a very modern slant but there is a large well established vintage collecting community out there too.

I completely agree that simply being rare is not enough but when you have organic demand for something that happens to be rare you get fireworks and I think that's an important difference. I think it's something you only appreciate once you try to track down certain cards. The growth has been very encouraging considering there has been far less publicity than modern.
There is definitely a trickle down effect from people who get into the hobby from new releases, eventually they start chasing the names from their childhood, the best players from their club / country or the all the all time greats.

[44gwilson]

Bit of an aside here but I guess it’s relevant in a discussion about value… would any of you ever buy a psa 1 card of one of the big rookies? Ronaldo and Messi cards in that condition still fetch 1-2k. It’s crazy to me

[YayNJ]

I'd buy a PSA 1 of classic rookies, but not of a modern player like Messi or Ranaldo. There's too many of them in the grand scheme of things, better conditions and tools for keeping them pristine etc.

[Zankyman17]

Undervalued: Topps Living UEFA Champions League Set

Eventually this set will have its day

EXTREMELY low print runs (outside some of the star players/rookies) especially when comparing to Baseball, Star Wars, and even WWE now.

I know the art is very polarizing, but I think it will continue to grow in popularity…slowly.

[44gwilson]

Originally Posted by Zankyman17

Undervalued: Topps Living UEFA Champions League Set

Eventually this set will have its day

EXTREMELY low print runs (outside some of the star players/rookies) especially when comparing to Baseball, Star Wars, and even WWE now.

I know the art is very polarizing, but I think it will continue to grow in popularity…slowly.

2nd this. I also think the pitch kings cards are super underrated.

[fadster]

Originally Posted by 44gwilson

Bit of an aside here but I guess it’s relevant in a discussion about value… would any of you ever buy a psa 1 card of one of the big rookies? Ronaldo and Messi cards in that condition still fetch 1-2k. It’s crazy to me

Of older key cards that are a pain to find, yes. Nothing modern though.

[coltsfan23]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

I'd buy a PSA 1 of classic rookies, but not of a modern player like Messi or Ranaldo. There's too many of them in the grand scheme of things, better conditions and tools for keeping them pristine etc.

I would bet there are less than 1,000 total Ronaldo mega craques rookies in circulation. Not many people collecting soccer cards in Portugal in 2003.

[KhalDrogo]

@ thinking there are “too many” 2004 MGKs. PSA pop is 352.

[Ianhatcher]

I like lower graded cards sometimes as I think they probably have a neat history. They were in some kids binder at one point or traded on the playground. Reminds me of things I used to do as a kid. My Messi is a PSA 4 and my CR7 is a PSA 6 and I am perfectly fine with that and I bought them raw before the madness ensued. There is a lot more I like to do with $100k then spend it on one card and I also like the fact I bought them raw and I got them graded.

As to overvalued, pretty much everything that has been hyped. The market has crashed, people can deny this or whatever but it has when a lot of cards lose 50-60% value. I think a big contributor to this is the lack of grading base cards at PSA. People can rail on that all they want but the ability to grade and resell base cards gives many people access to higher more rare cards. That as much as the economic downturn and opening up from COVID to me are the 3 main reasons for the trend downwards.

I think going forward the hobby is much like other hobbies. People will prospect and people will buy when players get hot, win or transfer. Sometimes the horse you backed wins and sometimes it loses but I see the whole market shifting significantly down for some time and somewhat normalizing.

I don't think we'll see the entire soccer market explode though ever like it did last year only particular players that create buzz.

I also think a lot of the On Card autos are overvalued as I am betting we see more of those as time goes by such as Eminence. I know a lot of people will disagree with that but I think Messi and CR7 in particular will be signing autos for the next 30-40 years and everyone around them that stands to make a percentage of that will ensure they do.

[k13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

@ thinking there are “too many” 2004 MGKs. PSA pop is 352.

Probably millions got printed.

Just cause there's only so many graded does not mean they are not out there.
Most would be in Europe.

You can look at any pop in soccer and it will be low.

Messi WC /149 prizm pop is only 13

Base pop is 4200 but there's 80k + plus of them out there.

[k13]

Once all these young stars fail and people lose their butts they'll go back to other established stars. It can take years for that though.

People in basketball have been going after wade, garnett, nash, nowitski, carter, pierce, etc. Instead of prospects as much so not just Jordan/Lebron.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

On the first point, there is no standard set/company/brand that has continuously produced cards and sets of cards for a long period of time like we see in baseball/basketball/football. People who collect like to have something that binds their collection together, and with vintage soccer this is missing. You have a bunch of oddball sets, made by various companies, in various sizes.

Yes and no....

A&BC/Topps produced British sets pretty much non-stop from 1958 to 1980, and many of the sets use similar designs to the Topps baseball cards of the era.

From 1992 to 2000, Score and/or Panini produced Serie A sets that are full of superstars. 1996 Estrellas Europeas was the first multi-league set and has a very nice & simple design. Topps did a British Stadium Club set in 1992-93, and Merlin/Topps have been doing Premier Gold sets since 1995.

A lot of this stuff isn't easy to find (in any condition), but that's half the fun.

The last couple of weeks I've been going through soccer stuff that I bought in the 90's and which had been sitting in my parents basement for 25 years and have been finding lots of cool stuff, including:

- a complete 1967-68 A&BC set
- multiple boxes & complete sets of 92 Score
- more 94/94 Upper Deck World Cup cards than I can count
- some 95 Argentinian Upper Deck packs
- 2 unopened boxes of 96 Estrellas Europeas packs (with Ronaldo RC's)
- Del Piero, Zidane, & Beckham rookie cards
- several boxes of various years of Premier Gold
- complete Panini Serie A sets from 96 to 99

[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by coltsfan23

I would bet there are less than 1,000 total Ronaldo mega craques rookies in circulation. Not many people collecting soccer cards in Portugal in 2003.

the print run will have been hundreds of thousands.

there will be boxes and boxes of this stuff somewhere in a garage or lock up.

also lol @ using PSA as an indicator of how many there are with year long back logs and exorbitant pricing.