What does the route back to hobby love look like for the failures of the 2020 class?

[Skeely]

We saw a lot of 2020 series 1 rookies turn from sucesses turn to busts in a quick time. With the early sucesses so far this Season os guys like Yordan and Bichette lets talk about what it would take for the busts to get back on track.

What stat line do guys like Kyle Lewis or Arozarena need to put up in a seaon to regain any sort of hobby love at there older ages? Or have they used any margin of error barring an MVP caliber season?

And What do you expect to see from Lux when he hopefully retuns from injury?

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Skeely

We saw a lot of 2020 series 1 rookies turn from sucesses turn to busts in a quick time. With the early sucesses so far this Season os guys like Yordan and Bichette lets talk about what it would take for the busts to get back on track.

What stat line do guys like Kyle Lewis or Arozarena need to put up in a seaon to regain any sort of hobby love at there older ages? Or have they used any margin of error barring an MVP caliber season?

And What do you expect to see from Lux when he hopefully retuns from injury?

I don't think you're calling Yordan and Bichette busts or failures but you probably should not start a thread like this with their names.

As for Randy Arozarena, he's a little older but with what he did in the WBC, he's got a great following. It wont turn his Flagship rookies into thousand dollar cards but his floor is definitely higher now.

Kyle Lewis will need to do what he did in spring training on his new team to regain hobby dollars.

Lux just never had a chance to shine as a premier starter. This was supposed to be the year but that ACL tear derailed that.

The big one though, Luis Robert. It'll take him being a Top 3 MVP contender, so probably an 8 WAR+ season.

For the rest of the 2020 class, pitchers is where it's at.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I don't think you're calling Yordan and Bichette busts or failures but you probably should not start a thread like this with their names.

As for Randy Arozarena, he's a little older but with what he did in the WBC, he's got a great following. It wont turn his Flagship rookies into thousand dollar cards but his floor is definitely higher now.

Kyle Lewis will need to do what he did in spring training on his new team to regain hobby dollars.

Lux just never had a chance to shine as a premier starter. This was supposed to be the year but that ACL tear derailed that.

The big one though, Luis Robert. It'll take him being a Top 3 MVP contender, so probably an 8 WAR+ season.

For the rest of the 2020 class, pitchers is where it's at.

Poor wording on my part. I more was pointing out that they are not busts. And they both started on hot streaks this year it seems.

With that said, I think the fact that a lot of cards from that years flagship went down in price in general since release (for other reaons tahn performance) makes yordan and bichette still seem like a bit of a bust from the hobby perspective, at least for now. I remember when there psa 10s base rookies sold comfortably for 40 plus and they are half of that now.

The WBC is an angle I did not consider for Arozarena.

Interested to see what a healthy kyle lewis looks like over a full season.

Appreciate the thoughtful post!

[KhalDrogo]

Kyle Lewis is a 27 year old on the Diamondbacks who has managed to play 134 games with a 2.4 WAR. He isn’t just hobby irrelevant. He’s baseball irrelevant.

Arozarena is a good ballplayer. He’ll never have a hobby following.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Skeely

We saw a lot of 2020 series 1 rookies turn from sucesses turn to busts in a quick time. With the early sucesses so far this Season os guys like Yordan and Bichette lets talk about what it would take for the busts to get back on track.

What stat line do guys like Kyle Lewis or Arozarena need to put up in a seaon to regain any sort of hobby love at there older ages? Or have they used any margin of error barring an MVP caliber season?

And What do you expect to see from Lux when he hopefully retuns from injury?

They were pumped simply because there weren’t many other reasonable choices of players to pump that year.

Happens just about each and every year - if nobody is pumped everyone from manufacturers to individual opportunist flippers lose money…so ant least one always is whether or not he is actually worthy. You will never find a time when someone wasn’t pumped.

[smapdi]

If you want their cards to be worth more, start paying more for them. They won't simply elevate in price if no one pays elevated prices. What it would take for that to happen, other than someone setting a floor themselves, is unpredictable. Odell Beckham was/is a great receiver, but if not for THE CATCH, he would never have gotten the notoriety he did. Sports are full of guys who are great players, but not great hobby targets, and there is only a very tenuous connection between the two.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by smapdi

If you want their cards to be worth more, start paying more for them. They won't simply elevate in price if no one pays elevated prices. What it would take for that to happen, other than someone setting a floor themselves, is unpredictable. Odell Beckham was/is a great receiver, but if not for THE CATCH, he would never have gotten the notoriety he did. Sports are full of guys who are great players, but not great hobby targets, and there is only a very tenuous connection between the two.

You are alive.

[rainmaker]

Who was the guy on the reds that everybody was drooling over from a couple years ago? Is he even still in the show?

A 3 year old rookie class has no route back to hobby love. Their time has come and gone.

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

Who was the guy on the reds that everybody was drooling over from a couple years ago? Is he even still in the show?

A 3 year old rookie class has no route back to hobby love. Their time has come and gone.

’

Aristedes Aquino, guess I am stuck holding his cards to the grave, they do make for good throw ins when I sell something on eBay though.

[kevbojones]

If you're the speculator type, now is the best time to start looking into former hobby darlings who are beginning to turn into solid veterans

Bo Bichette-led AL in hits 2 years in a row
Alvarez--clutch performer in last years WS
Robert--health continues to be a concern/but he's solid when he's in there
Arozarena--Rays are 4-0 and Randy is clutch as hell; Rays in postseason every year

People will be forgetting about, Witt, Wander and even J-ROD as new and exciting prospects come out each year. Heck, people are already bored of Vladdy, Soto, Acuna and Alonso

There has been a generational influx of talent over the past 5 years. Lots of good options out there

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by kevbojones

If you're the speculator type, now is the best time to start looking into former hobby darlings who are beginning to turn into solid veterans

Bo Bichette-led AL in hits 2 years in a row
Alvarez--clutch performer in last years WS
Robert--health continues to be a concern/but he's solid when he's in there
Arozarena--Rays are 4-0 and Randy is clutch as hell; Rays in postseason every year

People will be forgetting about, Witt, Wander and even J-ROD as new and exciting prospects come out each year. Heck, people are already bored of Vladdy, Soto, Acuna and Alonso

There has been a generational influx of talent over the past 5 years. Lots of good options out there

[amg2002]

2020 is one of the worst RC classes in a long time. But, if you look back over the last 10 seasons or so, aside from 2018 and 2019, what year has really more than 2 stars come out of it that hold long term value?

Saying that, Yordan and Bichette in 10 years should be HOF locks if they continue as they are.

Robert is hugely overrated. Randy has no following. Lux...meh.

"Maybe" Cease and Gallen have a CY type season and see an uptick in their cards but neither is a long term play.

Long term, I think 2019 will be the most loaded group

[Nester99]

2020 was bad but 2021 was so much worse....

[rainmaker]

The problem with the past few years… what we see with Bichette and Alvarez who are arguably top 10 players in the game producing as well as anyone in the league not named shohei ohtani and Aaron judge, is production numbers. The production bump from 2020 and continued annual increase skews the supply demand. The perception their cards are t worth much isn’t based on their play it’s just amyone and everyone can have 100 copies of their flagship rc. It’s going to be the same for Julio and wander and other guys that come up in this era. Most definitely a junk era were in.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by kevbojones

If you're the speculator type, now is the best time to start looking into former hobby darlings who are beginning to turn into solid veterans

Bo Bichette-led AL in hits 2 years in a row
Alvarez--clutch performer in last years WS
Robert--health continues to be a concern/but he's solid when he's in there
Arozarena--Rays are 4-0 and Randy is clutch as hell; Rays in postseason every year

People will be forgetting about, Witt, Wander and even J-ROD as new and exciting prospects come out each year. Heck, people are already bored of Vladdy, Soto, Acuna and Alonso

There has been a generational influx of talent over the past 5 years. Lots of good options out there

If there has been a generational influx of talent every year, then I guess it’s not generational, it’s annual.

Another year, another new crop to hype. Every year.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

The problem with the past few years… what we see with Bichette and Alvarez who are arguably top 10 players in the game producing as well as anyone in the league not named shohei ohtani and Aaron judge, is production numbers. The production bump from 2020 and continued annual increase skews the supply demand. The perception their cards are t worth much isn’t based on their play it’s just amyone and everyone can have 100 copies of their flagship rc. It’s going to be the same for Julio and wander and other guys that come up in this era. Most definitely a junk era were in.

Good point, you really have to be selective. The Yordan thread gives a great glimpse of what are great targets for any player collectors. The average fan will likely pick up flagship PSA 10's and do it for $20-$40 but hobbyists are going after the more limited stuff.

Always collect who and what you like and never over extend! Whether they end up like Aquino(who still plays overseas) or Trout, at least you have a story to tell.

[epatmythes]

Bichette, Alvarez, Robert, Aronzarena, Lewis... snooze

It's still not too late to get on the Nico Hoerner bandwagon

Ok, that's my cubbies love talking... but someone on the Cubs needs hobby love and I could definitely see that with him this year!

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Kyle Lewis is a 27 year old on the Diamondbacks who has managed to play 134 games with a 2.4 WAR. He isn’t just hobby irrelevant. He’s baseball irrelevant.

Arozarena is a good ballplayer. He’ll never have a hobby following.

You are certainly right as it currently stands but isnt there a route to hobby relevance for both even if it may be far fetched?

I dont think these will ever happen but if Arozerna hits 35 homers this year with 120 Rbi and the Rays win a playoof series is there no uptick in his hobby love?

Or maybe even more far fetched cause Lewis is already struggling out the gates but if he hits 25 homers and a .300 average we wouldnt see some jump in his hobby relevance?

I understand there arent likely scenarios but thats kind of what I meant this thread to be. Whats the threshold these types of guys need to meet to regain hobby interest no matter how far fetched.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by epatmythes

Bichette, Alvarez, Robert, Aronzarena, Lewis... snooze

It's still not too late to get on the Nico Hoerner bandwagon

Ok, that's my cubbies love talking... but someone on the Cubs needs hobby love and I could definitely see that with him this year!

I would love to see the cubs have some hobby love.

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by Skeely

You are certainly right as it currently stands but isnt there a route to hobby relevance for both even if it may be far fetched?

I dont think these will ever happen but if Arozerna hits 35 homers this year with 120 Rbi and the Rays win a playoof series is there no uptick in his hobby love?

Or maybe even more far fetched cause Lewis is already struggling out the gates but if he hits 25 homers and a .300 average we wouldnt see some jump in his hobby relevance?

I understand there arent likely scenarios but thats kind of what I meant this thread to be. Whats the threshold these types of guys need to meet to regain hobby interest no matter how far fetched.

Certainly a smidge more of a market than today if these come true. You’re looking at what manny machado? Paul Goldschmidt? Star vets that get a bit of hobby love but are far below rookies and year two hobby hypes and the few top stars with staying power (judge, trout, ohtani). There is no reward even at the minimal financial risk for a guy like arezarona. Heck of a ball player but he will never be hobby relevant.

[BigL7370]

I didn’t get what the LouBob hype was about and still don’t.

Kyle Lewis is a corpse at this point.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by rainmaker

Certainly a smidge more of a market than today if these come true. You’re looking at what manny machado? Paul Goldschmidt? Star vets that get a bit of hobby love but are far below rookies and year two hobby hypes and the few top stars with staying power (judge, trout, ohtani). There is no reward even at the minimal financial risk for a guy like arezarona. Heck of a ball player but he will never be hobby relevant.

Okay that makes sense. Seems like the rookies of every class get a very small margine of error of a year or two before there best case barring multiple massive seasons is the middle of the road star.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by BigL7370

I didn’t get what the LouBob hype was about and still don’t.

Kyle Lewis is a corpse at this point.

Kyle lewis is a corpse is gonna be my new slogan lol

[rainmaker]

Originally Posted by Skeely

Okay that makes sense. Seems like the rookies of every class get a very small margine of error of a year or two before there best case barring multiple massive seasons is the middle of the road star.

That’s the hobby rub. Wasn’t machado the mvp in 2021 and Goldschmidt mvp last year? They aren’t middle of the road stars. They’re superstars. Cardboard baseball and real life baseball are completely different beasts.

[TBTC Baseball]

Is there anyone in the past 20 years that was a "hobby darling", crahed to oblivion, and came back to be a "hobby darling"? Strasburg after the WS win?