Upper Deck Young Guns

[mikejones]

Getting my feet wet for hockey. What's the best year and series to buy? I did my own research based on pricing and looks like anything before 2019 is pretty expensive. Price wise and just for fun ripping I came up with:
2019-20 series 1
2020-21 series 2
2022-23 series 2
2023-24 overpriced?
2024-25 I have no idea

2021-22 seems to be a bad year. I remember buying a few boxes boxes of series 1 during release and pulled a Trevor Zegras young gun which sold pretty well. Looks like those can be had for cheap now. My LCS hardly carries hockey now so everything has to be purchased online. It's Kirill Kaprizov the best out of all the young guns in the affordable price range? I say this because 2019-20 series 2 is pretty expensive. I'll probably pick up one blasters, tins, and retail boxes to rip for fun chasing young guns.

[glen87]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Getting my feet wet for hockey. What's the best year and series to buy? I did my own research based on pricing and looks like anything before 2019 is pretty expensive. Price wise and just for fun ripping I came up with:
2019-20 series 1
2020-21 series 2
2022-23 series 2
2023-24 overpriced?
2024-25 I have no idea

2021-22 seems to be a bad year. I remember buying a few boxes boxes of series 1 during release and pulled a Trevor Zegras young gun which sold pretty well. Looks like those can be had for cheap now. My LCS hardly carries hockey now so everything has to be purchased online. It's Kirill Kaprizov the best out of all the young guns in the affordable price range? I say this because 2019-20 series 2 is pretty expensive. I'll probably pick up one blasters, tins, and retail boxes to rip for fun chasing young guns.

really none if you are simply looking for YGs. all of those are affected by epack which is why they are cheaper than earlier releases.

you mention Zegras, currently there are almost 150 raw ones on comc and almost 50 graded ones available.

[cjstark72]

Out of the ones you have listed 19-20 Series 1 (Hughes brothers, Adam Fox, Makar Canvas YG) and 20-21 Series 2 (Kaprizov and Stuetzle) would be the best. If you're strictly looking for base young guns then look for retail boxes as they'll be much cheaper than hobby boxes. Young guns and canvas young guns have the same odds in retail and hobby boxes.

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[ThatGuyPal]

I'm no YG historian so not sure the names in all these but I'd go with 19-20 S1 as it has two of the Hughes brothers, Jack and Quinn. People hyped up the worst brother Luke as a big YG chase last year so why not go with the two better ones? lol I don't really get why that series is so slept on, I even got some for super cheap a few years ago. Despite being defence Cale Makar is really good and pretty popular so 19-20 S2 will stay pretty high. 23-24 is priced for Connor Bedard, if it's overpriced will take some time to determine as he could fade out making them overpriced or pan out and they get to Mcdavid/Matthews box prices.

If you want something super cheap with minor potential there's always Extended Series. Someone actually got retail boxes for $11 a piece lol here's their rip:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1603126

Can hit insert rookies and retro young guns, dont' sell for much but there's some sneaky things you can hit that are good. Not sure about the year before I'd have to look into it and 23-24 is prob overpriced for Bedard but I'd research some Extended as it usually discounts a lot and isn't bad at dirt low prices.

[stoopid]

There's really no secret ingredient or special sauce to buying wax, it's always the case of it being the lesser of two (or fifty) evils. You have the right idea if you want to limit the injury to your wallet, but then you might as well just buy the key cards you would want as singles and maybe even as PSA 10s for the price of the boxes. If not doing it for the pure fun, absent of the costs involved, buying wax is otherwise... unwise.

[rizzeedizzee]

Before you plunge into this, know that Young Guns from that "era" are plentiful. Really plentiful. Yes, for true stars like Makar, Kaprizov and Hughes that has not led to lower prices, but it is not easy to profit on young guns because when you go to sell there will always be dozens of others being offered that you'd need to undercut. My advice on Young Guns is buy very low and hope. Or instead, take the $$ you'd spend on several YGs and instead buy something that has a know number of copies, like a Future Watch or Cup RPA, as there profit can be more easily realized.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Before you plunge into this, know that Young Guns from that "era" are plentiful. Really plentiful. Yes, for true stars like Makar, Kaprizov and Hughes that has not led to lower prices, but it is not easy to profit on young guns because when you go to sell there will always be dozens of others being offered that you'd need to undercut. My advice on Young Guns is buy very low and hope. Or instead, take the $$ you'd spend on several YGs and instead buy something that has a know number of copies, like a Future Watch or Cup RPA, as there profit can be more easily realized.

Truth.

[Satan]

I see 2019-20 Series 1 being suggested. If a box is ~225 cad like I'm seeing online, you're better off passing

Raw prices for the top ygs:
Makar ygc 200 cad
JHughes yg 95-100 cad
QHughes yg 80-100 cad
Fox yg 15-30 cad
Fox ygc 15-30 cad
All other ygs are commons at this point.

[Seahawks fan]

The beauty of YGs was you could rip a $20 blaster of 9-12 packs and at 1:4 packs you could pull 2-3 and have a solid chance at hitting something decent. Even if you struck out there was future potential there and they were easy to trade.

Now at $35-60 a blaster you have to hit a top 3 YG just to break even. Unless you have a huge name like a McDavid/Bedard/Matthews/Crosby/Ovechkin etc..the gamble isn't even worth it imo.

There are so many of them that they just continue to go down in value especially in the off season. Obviously graded 10 versions is a different story and a whole different ball game.

Epack is fun but I would only do it at a products launch when there is a small window of mass hysteria/people trying to Rainbow speckle Young Guns and finish achievements.

Don't really fall for high hobby box prices as the odds of hitting a YG clear cut are 1 per case and hitting a Exclusive/High Gloss young gun is beyond hard even in a full case.

[worldtravel00]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Getting my feet wet for hockey. What's the best year and series to buy? I did my own research based on pricing and looks like anything before 2019 is pretty expensive. Price wise and just for fun ripping I came up with:
2019-20 series 1
2020-21 series 2
2022-23 series 2
2023-24 overpriced?
2024-25 I have no idea

2021-22 seems to be a bad year. I remember buying a few boxes boxes of series 1 during release and pulled a Trevor Zegras young gun which sold pretty well. Looks like those can be had for cheap now. My LCS hardly carries hockey now so everything has to be purchased online. It's Kirill Kaprizov the best out of all the young guns in the affordable price range? I say this because 2019-20 series 2 is pretty expensive. I'll probably pick up one blasters, tins, and retail boxes to rip for fun chasing young guns.

Like others are saying, YGs are plentiful and will be cheaper for you to buy singles directly from COMC/Ebay rather than opening any packs/boxes. If you want to get rookie cards, I would suggest saving those money and get Cup rookie singles.

[mikejones]

Thanks for all the feedback. I like busting wax so I wanted to try a different sport for a cheap rip. I was somewhat right and had previously ordered 2 2019-20 upper deck series 1 retail boxs, 2 2019-20 series 1retail tins, and 2 2020-21 series 2 retail boxes. Just got them in today. It was a really fun rip. 2019 series 1 was really good. Got 1 Quinn Hughes in the tin and 1 in the retail box. Both look good and are gradable. Also got a checklist young gun of Quinn and Jack Hughes. The 2020 series 2 were duds. Nothing worth of note. I think I did fantastic for the price and the amount of packs to open. Might try some 2021-22 series 1 retail boxes and tins next. Any thoughts on Cole Caufield? Will probably pick up 2022-23 series 2 if I can find any.

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by Satan

I see 2019-20 Series 1 being suggested. If a box is ~225 cad like I'm seeing online, you're better off passing

Raw prices for the top ygs:
Makar ygc 200 cad
JHughes yg 95-100 cad
QHughes yg 80-100 cad
Fox yg 15-30 cad
Fox ygc 15-30 cad
All other ygs are commons at this point.

Retail boxes with 6 young guns per box is like $65 for series 1. At $65 per, I figured it can't be that bad compared to other sports.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Retail boxes with 6 young guns per box is like $65 for series 1. At $65 per, I figured it can't be that bad compared to other sports.

I did just this box not long ago for the same reason as you. Got the Fox YGC, but nothing else of value which was fine with me. Did pick up a couple Blackhawks I hadn't seen before so that was cool with me.

I've gravitated more towards hockey lately too as I enjoy opening packs just as much as picking up singles. It's still likely to lose $$, but all wax is and the entry price with hockey can be more palatable.

[ThatGuyPal]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Before you plunge into this, know that Young Guns from that "era" are plentiful. Really plentiful. Yes, for true stars like Makar, Kaprizov and Hughes that has not led to lower prices, but it is not easy to profit on young guns because when you go to sell there will always be dozens of others being offered that you'd need to undercut. My advice on Young Guns is buy very low and hope. Or instead, take the $$ you'd spend on several YGs and instead buy something that has a know number of copies, like a Future Watch or Cup RPA, as there profit can be more easily realized.

Don't disagree but that argument goes for any rookie card for any sport for awhile now. How many Topps Series 1/2 rookies are there and people still buy boxes. A FW or Cup RPA is also gonna be a lot more expensive than some retail wax lol if you're trying to speak on saving money, unless you just chance it on some bum cheap FWA or Cup RPA which I wouldn't do, anyone with a name will be crazy expensive.

While they may not all profit I'll also counteract that YG's are very liquid so the positive is if you do need to sell it shouldn't be hard at all to find a buyer, even those no names will sell.....for dirt cheap but that's better than I can say for some no name football rookies etc. YG's are also always great trade bait, I've seen multiple posts even on here people looking to trade cards for/towards a YG. So while direct profit may not be realized I'm sure people that did grade good YG's etc and ended up trading for cards in other sports ended up profiting over what the YG woulda been.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Retail boxes with 6 young guns per box is like $65 for series 1. At $65 per, I figured it can't be that bad compared to other sports.

The good news/bad news about Retail is Fox and Jack Hughes usually come in the same box. So you could do great, but it also makes it more likely that you swing and miss.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

The good news/bad news about Retail is Fox and Jack Hughes usually come in the same box. So you could do great, but it also makes it more likely that you swing and miss.

In fairness, the likelihood for all wax in any sport (and non-sport) is a swing and miss, some of that has to be assumed and worth dealing with for the enjoyment of opening wax.

[odjickfan]

The smart choice is to buy the YGs you want in PSA 9 for probably less than the price of one box.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

While they may not all profit I'll also counteract that YG's are very liquid so the positive is if you do need to sell it shouldn't be hard at all to find a buyer, even those no names will sell.....for dirt cheap but that's better than I can say for some no name football rookies etc. YG's are also always great trade bait, I've seen multiple posts even on here people looking to trade cards for/towards a YG. So while direct profit may not be realized I'm sure people that did grade good YG's etc and ended up trading for cards in other sports ended up profiting over what the YG woulda been.

In the most recent releases (past 5 years), the print runs have increased such that there seems to be an endless supply of base YGs, even in PSA 10 grade. I've done exactly as you described a few times, getting a hyped (2019 or newer) YG for cheaper than market, then moving it for a small profit or trade bait. However, in most of those cases, the 'flip' to make a profit and return on trade was closer to break even than cha-ching.

The interest in the insert is there, but it doesn't defy basic supply demand principles. I've actually stopped this strategy as a result of trying and falling short too many times. Nothing feels more discouraging than taking 6 months to move cards I thought I'd make a buck, only to break even or lose a dollar for my efforts. Since 2023, the idea of casually flipping cards is reserved only for those [mostly dealers] buying bulk at 80% or lower comps. Liquidity implies the 'ability to moving a card', and this is mostly true, but if you're losing anything (time or money) then using "liquidity" as a positive is a misnomer. If I sell houses for a living at a 5-50% loss, am I really going to describe that real estate market condition positively as "liquid"? Am I going to keep that realtor job for long? Am I describing to my friends how baller I am at my ability to generate negative returns?

I see quite often in the hobby people talk out of one side of their mouths about 'selling/trading strategies', but then out the other admit they "at best break even". And if we're all being honest, few of us break even if we sat and actually charted out actual costs/returns in Excel.

IMHO of course, I'm sure some contrarian will post opposite.

[FatButcher]

I honestly shoot for a loss of no more than 10-15% and consider that a win since the time I spend is enjoyable.

My view is as a hobby I spend money and time on getting the majority of my $$ back is much better than playing golf which soaks up at ton of both $$ and time.

I would quibble with the "liquid" definition, it's simply an ability to move in and out of anything with ease at any given time. It isn't necessarily a commentary on profit/loss of that movement.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

I would quibble with the "liquid" definition, it's simply an ability to move in and out of anything with ease at any given time. It isn't necessarily a commentary on profit/loss of that movement.

If you're losing 95% or 10%, you're losing money and the discussion is the 'best boxes for price'. Money has certainly been the topic since the original post.

None of us should make money our primary focus. My post was to point out that many speak in terms of spending money intelligently in the hobby, but then also speak about how money isn't an objective and shouldn't be of concern. It is, or it is not. You're doing it for fun (or to satisfy a gambling addiction), or you're not. Collecting cards isn't an investment caliber marketplace, too many ways it can be (and has been) manipulated and it's too monopolized to be taken seriously.

[FatButcher]

I guess interpreted the original ask to be what boxes will I not take a total bath on, which is kind of how I approach it. The delta between cost and value should be narrow enough that my enjoyment covers it.

I'm of the opinion there is no purely intelligent spending when wax is involved and approach it accordingly.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

I'm of the opinion there is no purely intelligent spending when wax is involved and approach it accordingly.

Same for me. However we are, by all objective measures, outliers. Majority convince themselves it a good idea and the next pack is going to be the big hit.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by stoopid

Same for me. However we are, by all objective measures, outliers. Majority convince themselves it a good idea and the next pack is going to be the big hit.

On that we definitely agree! The breaker/big hit or bust approach is wild to me, such a losing proposition.

[ThatGuyPal]

The reason liquid is a positive even if it isn't really profitable is how many times have you seen on this board alone some life event happens and someone must sell some/all of their collection? Something like YG's you can move right away at somewhat consistent prices where other you may have to offer large discounts or sales to move in a pinch which will actually lose you more money in the long run.

Anyway I think some of us just had different definitions of the point of this post. I took it as OP was going to buy something, most likely from the list provided and was asking which is best for value. To me it's no help if someone seems set on purchasing something with different options to just say nothing or suggest something completely different. I'm sure a member since 2015 knows wax is a losing proposition so while most threads like this devolve into suggesting nothing at all, even if all are likely to be a loss I'm going to suggest the best listed of my opinion.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

The reason liquid is a positive even if it isn't really profitable is how many times have you seen on this board alone some life event happens and someone must sell some/all of their collection? Something like YG's you can move right away at somewhat consistent prices where other you may have to offer large discounts or sales to move in a pinch which will actually lose you more money in the long run.

Anyway I think some of us just had different definitions of the point of this post. I took it as OP was going to buy something, most likely from the list provided and was asking which is best for value. To me it's no help if someone seems set on purchasing something with different options to just say nothing or suggest something completely different. I'm sure a member since 2015 knows wax is a losing proposition so while most threads like this devolve into suggesting nothing at all, even if all are likely to be a loss I'm going to suggest the best listed of my opinion.

That is all very fair. We certainly went into the minutia on this. Won't be the last time.

I was responding specifically to the 'liquidity' part of your response. I generally don't reply or reply much in cases like this where the buyer seems to know what they're getting into as you say.