How Much are Fake Watchers Holding Up the Market?

[asymmetricalbet]

I really think there are a number of larger accounts using fake watchers to make cards appear more desirable than they actually are. I've noticed some instances over the past year where a card may have say, 30-40 watchers. It is purchased and then another copy of the card becomes available from someone else. When it does, the watcher count remains stuck at like 5 for months. I know there are places online where people can buy watchers for an insignificant fee.

How much do you believe this is affecting pricing on various cards and the market overall?

[kyle1707]

I’m not much of a conspiracy theory guy

But I do believe a lot of things in this hobby are fake

From sales to scarcity

It’s a dirty place with no rules. What do you think will happen ?

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by asymmetricalbet

I really think there are a number of larger accounts using fake watchers to make cards appear more desirable than they actually are. I've noticed some instances over the past year where a card may have say, 30-40 watchers. It is purchased and then another copy of the card becomes available from someone else. When it does, the watcher count remains stuck at like 5 for months. I know there are places online where people can buy watchers for an insignificant fee.

How much do you believe this is affecting pricing on various cards and the market overall?

The number of watchers on an item that I'm interested in has zero impact on me buying the card, and how much I'd pay, or not.

[sheetskout]

Originally Posted by marl1220

The number of watchers on an item that I'm interested in has zero impact on me buying the card, and how much I'd pay, or not.

Right or wrong, and maybe subconsciously, it does have an effect on me when purchasing high-end items though.

I have noticed this in my buying habits.

[mrmojorisin71]

I don’t particularly care about the number of watchers, as a person who uses all their watches, I do it for the offers and negotiating piece.

[tyrith]

I do think that watches can be a useful metric to tell how many people are actually interested in something in a broad sense. I don't think it's something that people are seriously actively manipulating, and if they are, that it actually achieves anything.

[NYBBFAN]

Lotta windowlickers.

[asymmetricalbet]

Some super interesting replies here. Fascinated by what everyone is saying. Not sure I've seen a deep dive on this topic and what people think about it.

I will say it does impact me. It impacts me not in the sense that a card with a lot of watchers makes a card more desirable to me but if I see few watchers I pause and think "If I ever decide to sell this, finding the liquidity to sell to is gonna be tough. And therefore I need to get it at a 'safe' price." I use it more to judge the likelihood of me potentially being able to sell the item should I need to. If I see some card I'm interested in that sells for a few hundred bucks but only has a small amount of watchers, I think I'll look for something else that would be easier to sell because there are plenty of cards I like. I'd rather buy something that is easier to sell if I ever want to move on from it than one that would be harder to sell. I've always thought watchers were one piece of a number of metrics that help judge this. But I do think the fake watcher thing above is real. They are easily purchasable online.

[bub838]

I don't pay attention to follower count, but you are correct people do pay for services to boost their listings.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by asymmetricalbet

Some super interesting replies here. Fascinated by what everyone is saying. Not sure I've seen a deep dive on this topic and what people think about it.

I will say it does impact me. It impacts me not in the sense that a card with a lot of watchers makes a card more desirable to me but if I see few watchers I pause and think "If I ever decide to sell this, finding the liquidity to sell to is gonna be tough. And therefore I need to get it at a 'safe' price." I use it more to judge the likelihood of me potentially being able to sell the item should I need to. If I see some card I'm interested in that sells for a few hundred bucks but only has a small amount of watchers, I think I'll look for something else that would be easier to sell because there are plenty of cards I like. I'd rather buy something that is easier to sell if I ever want to move on from it than one that would be harder to sell. I've always thought watchers were one piece of a number of metrics that help judge this. But I do think the fake watcher thing above is real. They are easily purchasable online.

Watch count isn't really an indication of liquidity. In fact, the disparity of watch counts can easily be explained without fake watchers involved. Watch count (as well as sale price, etc...) is directly related to views. And there are a lot of factors that go into views. When a person lists, how they list, what keywords are used, who the account is that lists, are they paying to advertise the listing, etc... All things ebay uses to push more popular items out to potential customers. So I could sell the same card from my account, don't pay for the sponsored listing, and give it a generic title, and receive a significantly lower hammer price than if PSA's account lists the card with a better title and pays to have the listing sponsored. They will get more views, more watchers, and a higher price.

I say all that to say that if you are using watch count to indicate liquidity, don't. It doesn't mean that. Even using sale price as a comp is frought with peril as not all comps are equal.

[glen87]

if i see an item with a lot of watchers, it immediately sets off a red flag, and i tend to leave the item.

a lot of watchers can mean the item is priced too high (otherwise one of the watchers would have bought it), the seller may be difficult to work with, or there is a problem with the item

[SaveMeTheGum]

I've never given a single ounce of attention to the number of watchers on something. Sometimes certain sellers have tons of followers that watch their items where they may not watch someone else's. For instance, I usually list something BIN/BO before eventually listing it for auction. So when I first list it, a lot of my regular auction buyers will watch it. I'm sure this is the same for much higher volume sellers than me.

I don't think watcher counts affect the "market" for something at all.

[Cactuspies]

ebay used to have bots that would add to the watch list/views. can't imagine what they can do with AI now. watchers is one of the least useful things to really care about. if the lists were true, then I would be able to send out offers to the items showing there are watchers, but when I look there is no option to send offers for those items.

[Triple B]

I watch auctions of cards I have or I'm curious about with no intentions of buying. For the cards I WILL make a run at, I don't even look at how many people are watching it. I believe the amount of watchers has ZERO impact on anything unless all of them are bidding.

[Archangel1775]

Watchers don't impact my interest unless they are an OF "model". Then no thanks, long term at least. Haha

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I watch auctions of cards I have or I'm curious about with no intentions of buying.

This....at least half the auctions I watch I have no intention of bidding on.....just watching because I'm curious.

Watch a lot of BIN/BO's waiting for the seller to offer a discount, though....so on those the number of watchers may be more indicative of actual interest levels.

[corockies]

I watch items mostly to see if sellers will send me an offer. That usually opens the window for negotiation, especially for auctions that don't have a best offer on them.

[hermanotarjeta]

Not a factor at all.

I can’t believe people pay for this service.

[boxbuster7]

shill bidding is way bigger of a problem than watchers

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by asymmetricalbet

I will say it does impact me. It impacts me not in the sense that a card with a lot of watchers makes a card more desirable to me but if I see few watchers I pause and think "If I ever decide to sell this, finding the liquidity to sell to is gonna be tough. And therefore I need to get it at a 'safe' price." I use it more to judge the likelihood of me potentially being able to sell the item should I need to. If I see some card I'm interested in that sells for a few hundred bucks but only has a small amount of watchers, I think I'll look for something else that would be easier to sell because there are plenty of cards I like. I'd rather buy something that is easier to sell if I ever want to move on from it than one that would be harder to sell. I've always thought watchers were one piece of a number of metrics that help judge this. But I do think the fake watcher thing above is real. They are easily purchasable online.

You lost me at Judge.

[theplasticman]

Originally Posted by marl1220

The number of watchers on an item that I'm interested in has zero impact on me buying the card, and how much I'd pay, or not.

Same.

I have seen a dramatic rise in watch numbers on items I chase.

[SaveMeTheGum]

You have to remember also, if you watch something, then you are eligible for the offers that sellers send. So I watch all the overpriced stuff I want hoping to get a good offer from the seller.

Also, why in the world would a lot of watchers make you want something more or less? You either want it or you don't.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I do think that watches can be a useful metric to tell how many people are actually interested in something in a broad sense. I don't think it's something that people are seriously actively manipulating, and if they are, that it actually achieves anything.

Just because someone is watching the item doesn’t mean they are interested in it. A lot watchers are people with the same item just following to see how yours does.

[Blazed]

Fake watchers is the least of the "hobbies" problems

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

shill bidding is way bigger of a problem than watchers

No one likes to talk about shilling because it keeps the market propped up and makes their collection look good

The only time they complain about shilling is when they win an auction and think they got shilled or when they lose out on a PC card and think it was shilled

[Blazed]

Oh, and anyone who buys a card based on the number of watchers is dumb asf