2020 Topps Factory Set Thread - Page 102

messier2 · 10-22-2020, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottb57

May I ask how many cards from each set are you having graded? And what company/service level are you using? Thanks in advance for any insight you can provide!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pull out for possible grading:

Trout
Tatis
Bichette
Robert
Lewis
Lux
Yordan
Randy

Yes, that's a long list...that's why this factory set is well worth the purchase at MSRP!

PSA bulk all the way!!! If you send now, you should get it back by July, 2021. Right in the middle of baseball season!

Trueblue · 10-22-2020, 07:52 PM

honestly don't think anything besides a Bichette/Robert are safe grading right now.. It's at least $15/card to grade and no one is going to get you more than $35-40 for a PSA 10 besides those two. No idea where Arozarena will be at time of ST so that's a dice roll too. Unless you think Yordan comes back strong or Lux breaks out, it's tough to justify for a $10-15 margin/card (IF they gem) for that wait. Your grading bill is going to be $2,000 with a bunch of $25-30 cards. That's tough from a cashflow standpoint.

If you have a really clean robert, you should grade it. Pretty rough condition in these sets on average. For gold stars, I might include Lux/Yordan.

For those thinking of grading the complete set RCs, look at last year. Even a super rookie in Tatis isn't breaking $70 for a gem. With the overproduced sets this year, do you really think Robert/Bichette will get past $40? Long term, maybe - not now.

messier2 · 10-23-2020, 06:22 AM

Wow, purple sets still available!!! The hype is over! Lol

jayjones82 · 10-23-2020, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trueblue

honestly don't think anything besides a Bichette/Robert are safe grading right now.. It's at least $15/card to grade and no one is going to get you more than $35-40 for a PSA 10 besides those two. No idea where Arozarena will be at time of ST so that's a dice roll too. Unless you think Yordan comes back strong or Lux breaks out, it's tough to justify for a $10-15 margin/card (IF they gem) for that wait. Your grading bill is going to be $2,000 with a bunch of $25-30 cards. That's tough from a cashflow standpoint.

If you have a really clean robert, you should grade it. Pretty rough condition in these sets on average. For gold stars, I might include Lux/Yordan.

For those thinking of grading the complete set RCs, look at last year. Even a super rookie in Tatis isn't breaking $70 for a gem. With the overproduced sets this year, do you really think Robert/Bichette will get past $40? Long term, maybe - not now.

I respectfully disagree. The low prices right now are mainly due to it being the offseason (for most teams). I believe most of the guys buying the sets in-store did so to try to flip quickly, not break and grade. Come Spring Training and the start of the regular season, everyone and his Uncle Joe will be speculating about who the 2021 MVPs will be, WS champs, All-Stars, etc and that'll drive up the sale values of a lot of guys for a month or so. I imagine Robert, Bichette, Lewis, and Arozarena PSA 10 RCs will be around $100 each (maybe more for a couple of those, who knows...maybe 2021 will be weirder than 2020), with Lux and Yordan probably around $50

You're also grading for the "just in case" factor and possible grading price increases. If Arozarena starts off hot and has a few fiery streaks before the AS break, you'll want to have some of his cards ready to go. And PSA might decide to up their pricing, again, so you'll want to try to avoid paying higher fees, if possible.

Vinny1984 · 10-23-2020, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayjones82

I respectfully disagree. The low prices right now are mainly due to it being the offseason (for most teams). I believe most of the guys buying the sets in-store did so to try to flip quickly, not break and grade. Come Spring Training and the start of the regular season, everyone and his Uncle Joe will be speculating about who the 2021 MVPs will be, WS champs, All-Stars, etc and that'll drive up the sale values of a lot of guys for a month or so. I imagine Robert, Bichette, Lewis, and Arozarena PSA 10 RCs will be around $100 each (maybe more for a couple of those, who knows...maybe 2021 will be weirder than 2020), with Lux and Yordan probably around $50

You're also grading for the "just in case" factor and possible grading price increases. If Arozarena starts off hot and has a few fiery streaks before the AS break, you'll want to have some of his cards ready to go. And PSA might decide to up their pricing, again, so you'll want to try to avoid paying higher fees, if possible.

I agree with this. Which is why I sent in Robert/bichette/lux/yordan/Lewis at the 20 day/$25 level. I had 8 sets and 5 gold. Only sent in about half of them. If selling, I think you want to catch the spring training hype rather than hoping all these guys are raking come July. Only one I cringed at when I sent was Lux. I may hold him for a while and hope for the best.

kylerap · 10-23-2020, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I agree with this. Which is why I sent in Robert/bichette/lux/yordan/Lewis at the 20 day/$25 level. I had 8 sets and 5 gold. Only sent in about half of them. If selling, I think you want to catch the spring training hype rather than hoping all these guys are raking come July.

what did you label the gold stars as in your submission? "Gold Star Parallel"?

Vinny1984 · 10-23-2020, 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kylerap

what did you label the gold stars as in your submission? "Gold Star Parallel"?

I just labeled it “Luis Robert gold star”. There’s obviously no comps so psa can label however they want.

pdj316 · 10-23-2020, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayjones82

I respectfully disagree. The low prices right now are mainly due to it being the offseason (for most teams). I believe most of the guys buying the sets in-store did so to try to flip quickly, not break and grade. Come Spring Training and the start of the regular season, everyone and his Uncle Joe will be speculating about who the 2021 MVPs will be, WS champs, All-Stars, etc and that'll drive up the sale values of a lot of guys for a month or so. I imagine Robert, Bichette, Lewis, and Arozarena PSA 10 RCs will be around $100 each (maybe more for a couple of those, who knows...maybe 2021 will be weirder than 2020), with Lux and Yordan probably around $50

You're also grading for the "just in case" factor and possible grading price increases. If Arozarena starts off hot and has a few fiery streaks before the AS break, you'll want to have some of his cards ready to go. And PSA might decide to up their pricing, again, so you'll want to try to avoid paying higher fees, if possible.

This makes a lot of sense to me. The one major unknown that has me concerned is the fact that federal stimulus money is running out, and with infection rates going back up it seems like we could see a really significant economic downturn before spring. It has me wondering if the better bet is to try to liquidate now rather than wait for grades to come back and sell in the spring when the market should be hotter--all else being equal.

The Losing Edge · 10-23-2020, 08:57 AM

Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks.

ClevelandIC · 10-23-2020, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks.

Yes!! I love more variations! Thanks for posting!

Chris P · 10-23-2020, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks.

Oh wow...here we go again!

jayjones82 · 10-23-2020, 09:01 AM

(checks bank account after having purchased a bunch of sets)

"OK, my family can eat this week or I can try to buy a few of these things. Eh, Ramen Noodles for 5 days never killed anyone. Gimme those sets!"

The Accountant · 10-23-2020, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks.

nice! are there any odds on the box?

elny43 · 10-23-2020, 09:04 AM

I wonder if these will be available online. Wow!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

cj828282 · 10-23-2020, 09:05 AM

I will add the orange sets to the OP. Thought there would be another version and Topps didn't disappoint

cj828282 · 10-23-2020, 09:08 AM

Wal-mart had the exclusive chrome relic sets in 2018 and then none in 2019 (A Tatis would have bee nice.). Good to see the set back this year.

cj828282 · 10-23-2020, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Losing Edge

Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks.

Who are the rookies on the chrome relic checklist? In 2018 there were six subjects so maybe more or different from the rookie chrome exclusives.

LVDan · 10-23-2020, 09:34 AM

The only thing left is to insert redemptions for play dates with one of the big rookies(and Aquino).

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messier2 · 10-23-2020, 10:11 AM

I agree with the statements above about grading these...even at $15 each.

We have to think about this long, long-term! You are not grading for the now, you are grading for the future. It's all about your hunch or your confidence that the guy you are grading will break out in 2021. So, sure, prices are down now (as it should be since it's the off-season), but you are thinking about the guy raking by the all-star break next year.

If you graded Randy when series 1 came out, you are in a pretty good spot now. Randy was a nobody when the series came out...common rc...nothing special. If you had a hunch that he would be good, you sent him in at what $12 at that time? Now, how much is he selling for when your PSA 10s are in hand...$100+? That's some nice return on grading a common rc!

So, my point is, don't think about the now. If you have confidence in the player (no matter who it is) for 2021, send the card in! If he stinks, what can ya do, if he does well $$$!

I have stacks of all the guys I listed earlier ready to go! Just waiting to get more cards in to ship it all at once to PSA!

Good luck!

The Losing Edge · 10-23-2020, 10:57 AM

The rooks are same as all the others. Here is pic of odds.

*To confirm same rooks:

cj828282 · 10-23-2020, 11:01 AM

Looks like 16,510 sets for the orange box version. But double the supers as compared to the purple version. Odds are better than the purple for pulling a parallel and the odds are not that bad for pulling an auto version. About 20-25 base autos of each subject.

Odds are 1:29 sets for pulling a parallel/parallel auto from the orange sets.

The Accountant · 10-23-2020, 11:05 AM

Seems like 25 base auto parallels per subject

Trueblue · 10-23-2020, 11:06 AM

I never said grading for the long term was a bad idea. I'm talking about a high multiple ROI with cashflow taken into account. Robert and bichette are the only slam dunks. Arozarena, lewis, yordan may be relatively safe for $15-20 avg net margin/card, sure. If that's the spread you're after, that's cool. You also have to factor in that these sets have a significantly higher PR (no all-star set too) than last year along with the precarious economy. Assuming a secondary player (not robert/bichette) will be $80-100 at spring training is risky. If you grade 100 cards, and you gem 65%, your bill is 1,550ish with shipping. That's est. -$23 per PSA 10 before you even sell, not factoring in 9s, which may get you some change back. If you're comfortable with that math, along with floating the grading cost, go for it. I'm personally sticking with the top two guys for now.

80version · 10-23-2020, 11:07 AM

If ordering from Target, I do not recommend any less than qty 4 (their limit) at a time. I was ordering in 3’s to trigger the $25 off and push through as many orders as I could and they arrived like this.

A few of the sets have dented corners. I don’t even want to bust those for concern of the chrome RC being damaged. As mentioned previously, when ordering in 4’s these shipped in the same boxes Topps uses which reduces in transit movement.

messier2 · 10-23-2020, 11:08 AM

^^

Yup, exactly the garbage shipping I got for my 2-box orders!

10-22-2020, 07:52 PM	#2527
Trueblue Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: socal Posts: 6,813	honestly don't think anything besides a Bichette/Robert are safe grading right now.. It's at least $15/card to grade and no one is going to get you more than $35-40 for a PSA 10 besides those two. No idea where Arozarena will be at time of ST so that's a dice roll too. Unless you think Yordan comes back strong or Lux breaks out, it's tough to justify for a $10-15 margin/card (IF they gem) for that wait. Your grading bill is going to be $2,000 with a bunch of $25-30 cards. That's tough from a cashflow standpoint. If you have a really clean robert, you should grade it. Pretty rough condition in these sets on average. For gold stars, I might include Lux/Yordan. For those thinking of grading the complete set RCs, look at last year. Even a super rookie in Tatis isn't breaking $70 for a gem. With the overproduced sets this year, do you really think Robert/Bichette will get past $40? Long term, maybe - not now. Last edited by Trueblue; 10-22-2020 at 07:58 PM.

10-23-2020, 08:57 AM	#2534
The Losing Edge Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Chicago Posts: 803 rawslabsandwax TheLosingEdge	Anyone seen these yet? Target today had two so I grabbed them. $59.99 like the green. Says auto or relic of rooks. __________________ Insta, EBay: rawslabsandwax. MySlabs: https://myslabs.to/tffredrik

10-23-2020, 09:01 AM	#2537
jayjones82 Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: GA to Germany to TX Posts: 3,484	(checks bank account after having purchased a bunch of sets) "OK, my family can eat this week or I can try to buy a few of these things. Eh, Ramen Noodles for 5 days never killed anyone. Gimme those sets!" __________________ Always looking at Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken, Jr, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones (and most other Braves - but never Tom Glavine), vintage stars, Joe Montana (49er's jersey), Larry Bird, and Pete Maravich

10-23-2020, 09:34 AM	#2543
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,637	The only thing left is to insert redemptions for play dates with one of the big rookies(and Aquino). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

10-23-2020, 10:57 AM	#2545
The Losing Edge Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Chicago Posts: 803 rawslabsandwax TheLosingEdge	The rooks are same as all the others. Here is pic of odds. To confirm same rooks: __________________ Insta, EBay: rawslabsandwax. MySlabs: https://myslabs.to/tffredrik Last edited by The Losing Edge; 10-23-2020 at 10:59 AM. Reason: added rookies*

10-23-2020, 06:22 AM	#2528
messier2 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 15,303	Wow, purple sets still available!!! The hype is over! Lol

10-23-2020, 09:04 AM	#2539
elny43 Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Big Apple Posts: 1,525	I wonder if these will be available online. Wow! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

10-23-2020, 09:05 AM	#2540
cj828282 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 13,967	I will add the orange sets to the OP. Thought there would be another version and Topps didn't disappoint

10-23-2020, 09:08 AM	#2541
cj828282 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 13,967	Wal-mart had the exclusive chrome relic sets in 2018 and then none in 2019 (A Tatis would have bee nice.). Good to see the set back this year.

10-23-2020, 10:11 AM	#2544
messier2 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 15,303	I agree with the statements above about grading these...even at $15 each. We have to think about this long, long-term! You are not grading for the now, you are grading for the future. It's all about your hunch or your confidence that the guy you are grading will break out in 2021. So, sure, prices are down now (as it should be since it's the off-season), but you are thinking about the guy raking by the all-star break next year. If you graded Randy when series 1 came out, you are in a pretty good spot now. Randy was a nobody when the series came out...common rc...nothing special. If you had a hunch that he would be good, you sent him in at what $12 at that time? Now, how much is he selling for when your PSA 10s are in hand...$100+? That's some nice return on grading a common rc! So, my point is, don't think about the now. If you have confidence in the player (no matter who it is) for 2021, send the card in! If he stinks, what can ya do, if he does well $$$! I have stacks of all the guys I listed earlier ready to go! Just waiting to get more cards in to ship it all at once to PSA! Good luck!

10-23-2020, 11:01 AM	#2546
cj828282 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 13,967	Looks like 16,510 sets for the orange box version. But double the supers as compared to the purple version. Odds are better than the purple for pulling a parallel and the odds are not that bad for pulling an auto version. About 20-25 base autos of each subject. Odds are 1:29 sets for pulling a parallel/parallel auto from the orange sets. Last edited by cj828282; 10-23-2020 at 11:06 AM.

10-23-2020, 11:05 AM	#2547
The Accountant Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 12,985	Seems like 25 base auto parallels per subject __________________ Buying: Cole Hamels 1/1s

10-23-2020, 11:06 AM	#2548
Trueblue Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: socal Posts: 6,813	I never said grading for the long term was a bad idea. I'm talking about a high multiple ROI with cashflow taken into account. Robert and bichette are the only slam dunks. Arozarena, lewis, yordan may be relatively safe for $15-20 avg net margin/card, sure. If that's the spread you're after, that's cool. You also have to factor in that these sets have a significantly higher PR (no all-star set too) than last year along with the precarious economy. Assuming a secondary player (not robert/bichette) will be $80-100 at spring training is risky. If you grade 100 cards, and you gem 65%, your bill is 1,550ish with shipping. That's est. -$23 per PSA 10 before you even sell, not factoring in 9s, which may get you some change back. If you're comfortable with that math, along with floating the grading cost, go for it. I'm personally sticking with the top two guys for now. Last edited by Trueblue; 10-23-2020 at 11:14 AM.

10-23-2020, 11:07 AM	#2549
80version Member Join Date: Oct 2020 Location: Cali Posts: 123	If ordering from Target, I do not recommend any less than qty 4 (their limit) at a time. I was ordering in 3’s to trigger the $25 off and push through as many orders as I could and they arrived like this. A few of the sets have dented corners. I don’t even want to bust those for concern of the chrome RC being damaged. As mentioned previously, when ordering in 4’s these shipped in the same boxes Topps uses which reduces in transit movement.

10-23-2020, 11:08 AM	#2550
messier2 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 15,303	^^ Yup, exactly the garbage shipping I got for my 2-box orders!