Markets are trending down - But how far and for how long?

[premium1981]

This moment in time has been discussed in multiple threads, but it appears as if the hobby market has officially began trending down recently. I do not base this off of any pumps, dumps, or single player trends. But it is across the board. Some may remain in denial and try to argue, but I personally think it is pretty clear.

So now that we are here, what happens? I have maintained the mindset that we will see a deflating of the "bubble" but that we will not see a pop/crash. I think prices went too high and were not sustainable. How much more of a market correction does everyone see coming? I think we continue to see some more declining, but a slowing pace. We will revert back to "normal pre-covid" type markets which were still great. I think retail will begin to show back up later in the year as the shoe-peeps move on to their next hot market.

Another prediction is wax saturation coming from the hobby cooling and Topps cranking the presses. Topps seems to lag behind the markets so I think it will take a few quarters of releases for them to realize the demand has pulled back some.

Interesting to say the least. I love watching the hobby trends and trying to stay ahead of the curve. But we have never seen anything like this before so it's new to all of us.

[SGC300ier]

It is going to be interesting. I see a lot of people that were spending good money on 2nd and 3rd year cards of players are about to lose their shirts....

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[FT35]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

It is going to be interesting. I see a lot of people that were spending good money on 2nd and 3rd year cards of players are about to lose their shirts....

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Got a theory about this one.

I for one have always been a rookie card collector--almost exclusively. Over the last couple of years, that has somewhat changed. As rookie cards have spiked, I've been priced out of some of the higher end stuff that I normally would have been able to pick up. Instead of throwing my hands in the air and saying the hobby sucks and I want out, I have switched focus and ended up in a new place in my collecting journey.

I'm more of a player collector now. I'm more about the name on the front of the card than whether it's a rookie/top brand. So 2nd/3rd year...all that...it doesn't matter at all to me because I am collecting the player--not just the top rookie cards like in years past. I'm betting on the fact that there are other player collectors who are doing the same thing. BUT...the main point here is trying to describe what that looks like to the hobby. For a growing group of collectors who are focusing on any desirable card of top players like Trout/Acuna/Soto--all the favorites in other sports...the result is it may distort the perception of non-player collectors into thinking that the run is actually on 2nd/3rd year cards of players. Kinda...but not entirely accurate.

The run for me is on "TROUT" "ACUNA" "SOTO" "TATIS" "GUERRERO" etc...I'm not caught up in some sort of fad of overspending on "non-rookie" cards--I'm actually getting the cards I'm setting out for that are still acquirable. And remember...ANY card of most of these guys is a 2nd/3rd year card because they are all still 2nd/3rd year players! Same for guys like Luka/Zion/Mahomes etc. In my opinion, this is actually a great sign for the hobby--that more people like me are actually getting into the cards themselves more--and not just the ones flagged as having the highest potential to gain value. It's not for everyone, but it's an area of the hobby that is VERY affordable still and collecting goals will not break the bank--plus there are many absolutely outstanding cards of today's top players that I, as an exclusive rookie card collector ONLY, would never have owned.

[Donkaylove]

Originally Posted by FT35

Got a theory about this one.

I for one have always been a rookie card collector--almost exclusively. Over the last couple of years, that has somewhat changed. As rookie cards have spiked, I've been priced out of some of the higher end stuff that I normally would have been able to pick up. Instead of throwing my hands in the air and saying the hobby sucks and I want out, I have switched focus and ended up in a new place in my collecting journey.

I'm more of a player collector now. I'm more about the name on the front of the card than whether it's a rookie/top brand. So 2nd/3rd year...all that...it doesn't matter at all to me because I am collecting the player--not just the top rookie cards like in years past. I'm betting on the fact that there are other player collectors who are doing the same thing. BUT...the main point here is trying to describe what that looks like to the hobby. For a growing group of collectors who are focusing on any desirable card of top players like Trout/Acuna/Soto--all the favorites in other sports...the result is it may distort the perception of non-player collectors into thinking that the run is actually on 2nd/3rd year cards of players. Kinda...but not entirely accurate.

The run for me is on "TROUT" "ACUNA" "SOTO" "TATIS" "GUERRERO" etc...I'm not caught up in some sort of fad of overspending on "non-rookie" cards--I'm actually getting the cards I'm setting out for that are still acquirable. And remember...ANY card of most of these guys is a 2nd/3rd year card because they are all still 2nd/3rd year players! Same for guys like Luka/Zion/Mahomes etc. In my opinion, this is actually a great sign for the hobby--that more people like me are actually getting into the cards themselves more--and not just the ones flagged as having the highest potential to gain value. It's not for everyone, but it's an area of the hobby that is VERY affordable still and collecting goals will not break the bank--plus there are many absolutely outstanding cards of today's top players that I, as an exclusive rookie card collector ONLY, would never have owned.

like this take, graded rookies now suck/overpriced for collectors, so the alternative is later prizm, chrome, odd parallels (tatis -el nino), etc. you adapted fine.

[Nung2019]

Stimulus money, people working from home, no traveling, a lot of factors led to people getting into cards. Now that things are getting back to normal, people are reverting their funds back to what they were before. It will settle back in, just like everything else

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Stimulus money, people working from home, no traveling, a lot of factors led to people getting into cards. Now that things are getting back to normal, people are reverting their funds back to what they were before. It will settle back in, just like everything else

Yes - what happened was certainly not specific to cards.

But we learned a lot about the hobby and the people in it...even the people who only stayed in it temporarily to try to make a buck off of it.

A good time was not had by all, and I’m glad it’s about to end/it’s over.

[thenwhatjk]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Stimulus money, people working from home, no traveling, a lot of factors led to people getting into cards. Now that things are getting back to normal, people are reverting their funds back to what they were before. It will settle back in, just like everything else

Looking forward to reading all seven pages but this is it, post 3

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

The market is definitely been trending down, especially base cards of top guys. Some high end stuff has managed to hold steady, but even high grade Jordan RCs have taken a dive. The big modern three in baseball have all seen their lower end stuff dip. On top of all the “getting back to normal life, and diverting funds” reasons which are a major factor, I always felt the 2020 prices weren’t sustainable because whenever a card like US300 PSA 10 would hit a new high, someone would post a picture of their stack of 50, or mention how they had 30 at PSA waiting to be graded. When you look at a prospect like Jasson, his prices started in the 2020 boom, and I think regardless of how he actually performs on the field, a lot of people are going to lose money on him.

How long will this last? For a few players it won’t be long. I think the AL/NL MVP winners will see a bump, any World Series heroes could see a bump. But overall, I think the slide lasts until spring training next year... and I don’t think we see a boom like 2020 again for a long time.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

How long will this last? For a few players it won’t be long. I think the AL/NL MVP winners will see a bump, any World Series heroes could see a bump. But overall, I think the slide lasts until spring training next year... and I don’t think we see a boom like 2020 again for a long time.

If Acuna flirts with a 40/40 season, price bump
If Ohtani stays healthy and does something that hasn't happened in a very long time, price bump

I would even add if there is a hot streak of a player in June/July hitting more HR than normal and leading the league then we can see some bump in prices.

Once retail is sitting back on the shelves like old times then I would say we are back to normal

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

If Acuna flirts with a 40/40 season, price bump
If Ohtani stays healthy and does something that hasn't happened in a very long time, price bump

I would even add if there is a hot streak of a player in June/July hitting more HR than normal and leading the league then we can see some bump in prices.

Once retail is sitting back on the shelves like old times then I would say we are back to normal

I agree with you on Acuña and Ohtani, but right now, it’s to see any kind of serious bump for a June/July hit streak. Unless we’re talking about a previously unknown player whose cards go from $1 to $7 (seeing a 700% bump).

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

How long will this last? For a few players it won’t be long. I think the AL/NL MVP winners will see a bump, any World Series heroes could see a bump.

Tatis is going to double from here if he wins MVP. Guerrero threatening triple crown. An Acuna MVP would be lights out.

But overall, I think the slide lasts until spring training next year... and I don’t think we see a boom like 2020 again for a long time.

This sentiment is ridiclous. So now your players actually have to perform well to make money? . There's so much money to be made out there if you get it right. Not just Big 3, but any number of guys who crush from here on out

[cj828282]

I look forward to the days of Bowman megas sitting on the shelves for weeks.

[Timsterino]

Originally Posted by cj828282

I look forward to the days of Bowman megas sitting on the shelves for weeks.

To be clear, I never saw Bowman Megas sitting on the shelves for weeks here in South Florida. Even before the pandemic they were hard to find.

[Raleigh504]

I agree, prices are coming back down to reality on an overall basis. I think it will level off in the summer and then get back up after people have done their traveling for the summer. Not saying it will return back to what it was before, but it will go back up when baseball is getting closer to the playoffs, NFL is starting back up and the NBA is getting back into full swing.

I do see more people staying in the hobby, but pulling back on spending since they now can do more with their money.

What I am really curious to see is the grading market, if prices have gone back to reality and when BGS/PSA open back up, what will their prices be? They can almost shoot themselves in the foot if we see less people in the market/prices going down to normal that it wouldn't make sense to grade a card for $x amount and have no chance of getting anything out of it.

[Hoopscardz83]

It has been a domino effect. People haven't left just yet. Singles have been crashing, people have been burned listening to investors on social media or youtube. Wax prices will be the true indicator, and so far people have still been buying off the secondary market at crazy prices.

[Nung2019]

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

[Hoopscardz83]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

I felt there have been new ones coming out everyday. I just can't see anyone taking out the big 2.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

No, not really. It’s bad time for any new grading company to start up. With prices falling, if/when I do buy graded, it would only be PSA or BGS (at a discount). As a buyer, I wouldn’t waste any money on card from a grading company that will be out of business soon.

[IlliniBear]

The high end cards have certainly crashed (MJ/LeBron Rookies, etc.). The other lower end charts I've seen show a downward descent but nothing resembling a crash.

It's quite possible the illiquidity of the lower end sports card market simply isn't going to result in a crash but rather a gradual decline that will reflect the insane pop counts on these cards. I think the very high end, limited quantity cards will still hold significant value but the ultramodern high print run base cards are going to revert to $10 or $20.

I personally have never sold a trading card. I haven't had the motivation to send in a grading order yet (I've got them set aside but never shipped them in). I know there are guys hustling buying and selling but I think those guys are outnumbered by the people ripping wax and holding their singles. It's all those unsold singles that are sitting in boxes that will destroy the resale value of those cards.

I'm not sure where the bottom is, I think that it's probably going to trend down for a while as casual collectors start to leave the hobby. I for one will continue to buy and rip retail wax but I think my desire for singles going forward is going to be minimal outside of buying SP or refractor rookie cards if prices get reasonable.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by IlliniBear

The high end cards have certainly crashed (MJ/LeBron Rookies, etc.). The other lower end charts I've seen show a downward descent but nothing resembling a crash.

It's quite possible the illiquidity of the lower end sports card market simply isn't going to result in a crash but rather a gradual decline that will reflect the insane pop counts on these cards. I think the very high end, limited quantity cards will still hold significant value but the ultramodern high print run base cards are going to revert to $10 or $20.

I personally have never sold a trading card. I haven't had the motivation to send in a grading order yet (I've got them set aside but never shipped them in). I know there are guys hustling buying and selling but I think those guys are outnumbered by the people ripping wax and holding their singles. It's all those unsold singles that are sitting in boxes that will destroy the resale value of those cards.

I'm not sure where the bottom is, I think that it's probably going to trend down for a while as casual collectors start to leave the hobby. I for one will continue to buy and rip retail wax but I think my desire for singles going forward is going to be minimal outside of buying SP or refractor rookie cards if prices get reasonable.

These are of course relative to the amount of people in the hobby. I visited my LCS today and it was the busiest I've ever seen it and whist I didn't get a chance to speak with the owner I suspect they are currently thriving. I've never seen such a variety of singles, sets, and wax for sale.The place was positively buzzing.

No toploaders, though!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by IlliniBear

The high end cards have certainly crashed (MJ/LeBron Rookies, etc.).

Readily available rookies? Sure. The rest? Nope. Show me the decline in anything MJ outside of early year Fleer.

[IlliniBear]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Readily available rookies? Sure. The rest? Nope. Show me the decline in anything MJ outside of early year Fleer.

I was specifically referring to the MJ and LeBron rookies. If you have any comps of cards still selling at highs I’d be interested to see them. I can’t imagine his other high end cards aren’t dipping somewhat.

[applenoose]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

Why the need? You don't enjoy sending your cards off for 6-12 months and tying up your cash flow and ability to buy/trade/sell of the lot???

PSA is an absolute joke of a company. Tying up tens and tens of millions of dollars because they are "too busy."

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by applenoose

Why the need? You don't enjoy sending your cards off for 6-12 months and tying up your cash flow and ability to buy/trade/sell of the lot???

PSA is an absolute joke of a company. Tying up tens and tens of millions of dollars because they are "too busy."

It’s likely much more accurate to say that the hobby is misusing TPGs.

Not that TPGs would stop anyone from misusing them.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

It’s likely much more accurate to say that the hobby is misusing TPGs.

Not that TPGs would stop anyone from misusing them.

What is the best practice / advice for proper use of TPGs?


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