Lockout and Card Prices

speedyjg13 · 12-02-2021, 12:25 AM

If this lockout drags on, what happens to card prices?

Players will have less games to play in their career and miss milestones.

What is your opinion on card prices if this drags on?

rippev · 12-02-2021, 12:28 AM

I don’t think any games will be missed.

boxbuster7 · 12-02-2021, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rippev

I don’t think any games will be missed.

But, but...the sky is falling

Akphillips86 · 12-02-2021, 12:31 AM

No need for concern yet, everyone knew this initial phase was coming.

If it drags on for a while you may find some deals, but things will come roaring back once they reach an agreement like it never happened in the first place.

I would be extremely surprised if any games are actually missed.

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SupermanBrandon · 12-02-2021, 12:33 AM

If you’re surprised by today’s news, you’ve not been paying attention for YEARS! They will play baseball as planned in 2022.

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mouschi · 12-02-2021, 12:34 AM

$$$ will funnel into vintage

majestik101 · 12-02-2021, 12:35 AM

My sources indicate that all baseball card prices will drop to 80% of eBay.

MoreToppsPlease · 12-02-2021, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

My sources indicate that all baseball card prices will drop to 80% of eBay.

This would be completely fantastic.

MoreToppsPlease · 12-02-2021, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouschi

$$$ will funnel into vintage

This is precisely what happened during the last strike. Although previous overproduction was the bigger reason why people were going there…

tconte · 12-02-2021, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouschi

$$$ will funnel into vintage

Lotta money has been going in the vintage already. I think more people have been moving some $$$ out of ultra modern.

As for Harper, I am going with a 75% chance that he gets the 500 homers. I just feel right now that he’s gonna play a long time.

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chilly55 · 12-02-2021, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouschi

$$$ will funnel into vintage

This. Back in 1994-95 with that lockout, two things happened with me. First, I started buying a lot more vintage. I opened very little baseball from 1995-1996 as i was ticked off with baseball in general. Really didn't get back into buying baseball boxes/current cards until 1997 when I went all out through 1998.

But the second was during my non-baseball buying, I opened a ton of Basketball. A sport which I liked to watch, but bought very little card wise. From 1995-about mid 1998, I bought a ton which turned out to be a great thing because I was able to pull a ton of Kobe rookies and Jordan cards during my Basketball binge buying. Something that would never had happened if Baseball never locked down.

But I was out of Baseball for about 2 years, and honestly, didn't miss much rookie wise.

no10pin · 12-02-2021, 12:44 AM

Crap, all of my biggest investments are missing their December games

MoreToppsPlease · 12-02-2021, 01:01 AM

TimBuckTwo · 12-03-2021, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

My Heart Will Go On

base set · 12-02-2021, 01:14 AM

2021 Panini Prism blasters will be forced down in price to $19.99 and when they still don’t sell they will be finally ripped open and inserted into the crappiest re-pack products ever re-packed, throughout the 2020s.

fabiani12333 · 12-02-2021, 01:43 AM

If spring training and the season are impacted, it will hurt new releases and unopened product.

There wont be stimulus cash and lockdowns to prop up the hobby.

Vintage will be fine. Guys like Harper, Betts, Arenado etc will face headwinds if games are lost, but their legacies will account for the labor-ownership strife -- similar to guys like Ted Williams who lost peak years due to military service.

fabiani12333 · 12-02-2021, 01:47 AM

The traditional milestones like 3k hits, 500 hrs, 300 wins etc are not realistic anymore. So even if a guy like Harper misses out on a lot of games like in 2020, it isn't likely to keep him from 500 home runs. He would need to nearly double his current total of 270, which was accrued during his peak years.

rwperu34 · 12-02-2021, 02:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The traditional milestones like 3k hits, 500 hrs, 300 wins etc are not realistic anymore. So even if a guy like Harper misses out on a lot of games like in 2020, it isn't likely to keep him from 500 home runs. He would need to nearly double his current total of 270, which was accrued during his peak years.

The chances of Harper getting to 500 HR has to be >70%.

fabiani12333 · 12-02-2021, 02:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The chances of Harper getting to 500 HR has to be >70%.

He's only hit 40 homers in a season once -- his first MVP season in 2015. He didnt hit 40 in a season when MLB was using the juice ball 2016-2019.

His career 162-game average is 34. He needs at least 7 seasons to get to 500 home runs (230 / 34 = 6.76). That would take him to his age-35 season. That's assuming peak performance and durability.

As he gets older, he'll physically decline, get hurt more and miss more games.

I'll put his odds at <30%.

rms13 · 12-02-2021, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

He's only hit 40 homers in a season once -- his first MVP season in 2015. He didnt hit 40 in a season when MLB was using the juice ball 2016-2019.

His career 162-game average is 34. He needs at least 7 seasons to get to 500 home runs (230 / 34 = 6.76). That would take him to his age-35 season. That's assuming peak performance and durability.

As he gets older, he'll physically decline, get hurt more and miss more games.

I'll put his odds at <30%.

Tom Brady is on pace for 5k yards and 44 TD at age 44 and you don’t think Harper can hit 34 HR when he’s 35? Or for apples to apples Nelson Cruz just hit 32 hr at age 40. As long as Harper stays healthy and wants to keep playing he should easily get to 500 hr. Performing at peak levels in your 30s is very realistic with modern training, nutrition and “supplements”. He also plays home games in one of the better parks for home runs.

k13 · 12-02-2021, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rms13

Tom Brady is on pace for 5k yards and 44 TD at age 44 and you don’t think Harper can hit 34 HR when he’s 35? Or for apples to apples Nelson Cruz just hit 32 hr at age 40. As long as Harper stays healthy and wants to keep playing he should easily get to 500 hr. Performing at peak levels in your 30s is very realistic with modern training, nutrition and “supplements”. He also plays home games in one of the better parks for home runs.

He can barely hit 34 at peak age.

rwperu34 · 12-03-2021, 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

He's only hit 40 homers in a season once -- his first MVP season in 2015. He didnt hit 40 in a season when MLB was using the juice ball 2016-2019.

His career 162-game average is 34. He needs at least 7 seasons to get to 500 home runs (230 / 34 = 6.76). That would take him to his age-35 season. That's assuming peak performance and durability.

As he gets older, he'll physically decline, get hurt more and miss more games.

I'll put his odds at <30%.

Even if he falls short by age 35 he'll still have three more years on his current contract. Even if he falls short after those extra three years, he'll still only have just completed his age 38 season. On top of all that, plenty of players have their peak HR years in their 30s.

I think you are not giving enough credit to how much being a quality full time player at age 19 helps with the counting stats.

fabiani12333 · 12-03-2021, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Even if he falls short by age 35 he'll still have three more years on his current contract. Even if he falls short after those extra three years, he'll still only have just completed his age 38 season. On top of all that, plenty of players have their peak HR years in their 30s.

I think you are not giving enough credit to how much being a quality full time player at age 19 helps with the counting stats.

The key will be durability and consistency -- which is the exception and not the norm for players in their 30s.

He could be an Eddie Murray type who hangs around the game well past his prime until he reaches 500, but I wouldnt bank on it.

cardsin47 · 12-02-2021, 06:45 AM

[QUOTE=rwperu34;178254

dodgerfanjohn · 12-02-2021, 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The traditional milestones like 3k hits, 500 hrs, 300 wins etc are not realistic anymore. So even if a guy like Harper misses out on a lot of games like in 2020, it isn't likely to keep him from 500 home runs. He would need to nearly double his current total of 270, which was accrued during his peak years.

300 wins is probably done for, but hits and homeruns are not.

As discussed elsewhere, Nelson Cruz has a strong shot at 500 and needs only two more ok seasons to get there.

Trouts only going to turn 30 and already has 310 homeruns. If he can play, I don’t see how he doesn’t reach 500. If he averages 20 a year for 10 more years he gets there. If he continues to hit his average number of homers, he’s there by age 35. Keep in mind, even if his body breaks down, the DH can keep him going.

Altuve has almost 1800 hits and is going to be 32. Admittedly he has some work to do. If he does get it, it will be a longetivity thing…like playing into his 40’s.

12-02-2021, 12:25 AM	#1
speedyjg13 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 17,304	Lockout and Card Prices If this lockout drags on, what happens to card prices? Players will have less games to play in their career and miss milestones. What is your opinion on card prices if this drags on? __________________ Current PC: Mike Trout Prior PC: David Fletcher & Jered Weaver https://www.flickr.com/photos/speedyjg13/albums

12-02-2021, 12:34 AM	#6
mouschi Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: Swimming in a million cards Posts: 9,717 tnhjones	$$$ will funnel into vintage __________________ Tanner Jones, Author of Confessions of a Baseball Card Addict

12-02-2021, 12:44 AM	#12
no10pin Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Kansas City, MO Posts: 17,019 no10pin no10pin	Crap, all of my biggest investments are missing their December games __________________ Always looking for more George Brett stuff. Need more rookies, low numbered inserts/parallels and on-card autos (no Panini).

12-02-2021, 01:01 AM	#13
MoreToppsPlease Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 8,676	__________________ IRS Tax Tip 2022-57 A hobby is any activity that a person pursues because they enjoy it and with no intention of making a profit. People operate a business with the intention of making a profit.

12-02-2021, 06:45 AM	#24
cardsin47 Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: Westminster, MD Posts: 8,761 cardsin47	[QUOTE=rwperu34;178254 __________________ @cardsin47 is Steve Meyer ~ #WaxReturns! PC Gem Mint Factory Sealed 5-Sport Active Player RC & Prospect SCARCE Hobby/ HTA Jumbo/ Retail/ Blaster/ Mega Boxes! ~Trout! Soto! JROD! Wemby! Luka! Mahomes! McDavid! Bedard! Erling!~ Last edited by cardsin47; 12-02-2021 at 08:08 AM.

12-02-2021, 12:28 AM	#2
rippev Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Location: New Mexico Posts: 2,717	I don’t think any games will be missed.

12-02-2021, 12:31 AM	#4
Akphillips86 Member Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 2,960	No need for concern yet, everyone knew this initial phase was coming. If it drags on for a while you may find some deals, but things will come roaring back once they reach an agreement like it never happened in the first place. I would be extremely surprised if any games are actually missed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

12-02-2021, 12:33 AM	#5
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,842	If you’re surprised by today’s news, you’ve not been paying attention for YEARS! They will play baseball as planned in 2022. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

12-02-2021, 12:35 AM	#7
majestik101 Inactive Account Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Socially Distanced Posts: 45,526 majestik101	My sources indicate that all baseball card prices will drop to 80% of eBay.

12-02-2021, 01:14 AM	#15
base set Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: NW Michigan Posts: 9,695	2021 Panini Prism blasters will be forced down in price to $19.99 and when they still don’t sell they will be finally ripped open and inserted into the crappiest re-pack products ever re-packed, throughout the 2020s.

12-02-2021, 01:43 AM	#16
fabiani12333 Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 13,978	If spring training and the season are impacted, it will hurt new releases and unopened product. There wont be stimulus cash and lockdowns to prop up the hobby. Vintage will be fine. Guys like Harper, Betts, Arenado etc will face headwinds if games are lost, but their legacies will account for the labor-ownership strife -- similar to guys like Ted Williams who lost peak years due to military service.

12-02-2021, 01:47 AM	#17
fabiani12333 Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 13,978	The traditional milestones like 3k hits, 500 hrs, 300 wins etc are not realistic anymore. So even if a guy like Harper misses out on a lot of games like in 2020, it isn't likely to keep him from 500 home runs. He would need to nearly double his current total of 270, which was accrued during his peak years.