@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[kkart]

Originally Posted by Publius

Anyone miss the good old days of Shop At Home Network with Don West hawking the Blue Chip while Ken Goldin pumps the product over the phone? The glory days of my childhood.

I miss the good old days of the latest issue of a 200 plus page of SCD showed up in my mailbox wrapped in plastic Or the latest issue of Baseball cards Magazine which had cards inside them. (Seen the prices of those cards lately? Holy smokes! Those graded Baseball Cards Magazine cards aren't cheap!)

[base set]

Hamilton is highly collectible, and is on the real paper version of what the vast majority of “collectors” are actually collecting, when they could hang a sweet framed action photograph of their favorite basketball player on their wall to enjoy in their daily life for a lot lot less than their PSA Fleer (or is the brand Fleer PSA? I forget) Rookie Card. But Hamilton is in a distinct 4th place behind Franklin, Jackson, and Grant, even though Hamilton is a bit more famous than Grant and probably Jackson too. Fame counts for nothing in this calculus, only bulk storage space for the most liquid collectible, ever - Hamilton’s essential problem in the hobby.

Jefferson, however, is distinctly less popular than Washington, even though both are equally famous and Washington is even legally worth twice as much, every single day of the year. Go figure. I have a crisp stash of likely PSA 10 Jeffersons, courtesy of all those birthday cards from Grandma over the years. Not sure if I’m ready to sell yet though. Waiting for the spread on the grading fees to improve.

[ThoseBackPages]

is it today?

[Publius]

Originally Posted by Neo

Watching the "fans" take a bath on their Jordan Rookies early next year, or perhaps sooner.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by base set

Hamilton is highly collectible, and is on the real paper version of what the vast majority of “collectors” are actually collecting, when they could hang a sweet framed action photograph of their favorite basketball player on their wall to enjoy in their daily life for a lot lot less than their PSA Fleer (or is the brand Fleer PSA? I forget) Rookie Card. But Hamilton is in a distinct 4th place behind Franklin, Jackson, and Grant, even though Hamilton is a bit more famous than Grant and probably Jackson too. Fame counts for nothing in this calculus, only bulk storage space for the most liquid collectible, ever - Hamilton’s essential problem in the hobby.

Jefferson, however, is distinctly less popular than Washington, even though both are equally famous and Washington is even legally worth twice as much, every single day of the year. Go figure. I have a crisp stash of likely PSA 10 Jeffersons, courtesy of all those birthday cards from Grandma over the years. Not sure if I’m ready to sell yet though. Waiting for the spread on the grading fees to improve.

Hahaha. This is superb!

[Pixman1]

Originally Posted by Chicosbailbonds

The market will tank, but what sector of it? I really doubt the entire market will. I've been collecting since 1971 also. When it does, its a great buying opportunity. Right now, its pretty good for set collectors to find value in lots and commons.

When the cards of the few hobby darlings become unaffordable but to the very few - which is now. I don’t know if that means values will tank but likely will just start to decline. I’m seeing 5 figures being asked for autos of some of these players on eBay quite regularly - that’s a big investment few can or want to pay. I spend a lot of disposable income on cards like a lot of us here but we are reaching 1% affordability for some guys now. $500 for graded base non-color cards? Seems crazy.

[Zhamlau]

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

because it will happen. just not sure if its this week, this month, in 87 years or before then

what does not strike me as odd is that "physical" items are "coming around" again

life is circular

[bubbs11]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

because it will happen. just not sure if its this week, this month, in 87 years or before then

what does not strike me as odd is that "physical" items are "coming around" again

life is circular

fingers are crossed for beanie babies

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

If this happens to be true (and I sure hope it’s not!)..... what would be left / gold?

[Zhamlau]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

If this happens to be true (and I sure hope it’s not!)..... what would be left / gold?

Gold 3 years ago this time was like 1350/Oz and now it’s 1850/Oz roughly.

12% rate of growth annual. That’s just phenomenal strong consistent growth not mind blowing...but again it’s gold so maybe that is insane considering how long people have been buying/selling/producing(mining) it.

It just feels odd.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by kkart

I departed the hobby in like 1990/1991 and fell out of even watching baseball entirely or keeping track because I became so disenfranchised with how it no longer was the game I loved but all about money.

It’s ALWAYS been all about the money. Watch “Ken Burns’ Baseball”.

[KhalDrogo]

We are in a revolution right now. And thankfully we are leaving the bubble boys behind. They won't be missed.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

It is odd. I was going to buy a home this year but decided to wait. Everything can't continue to go up. That being said, there is also no way that the entire hobby crashes either. The most likely crash will be wax (which needs to happen anyway for us to be able to afford it again), and probably non-numbered base rookies, especially graded. When PSA/BGS catches up with orders there will be an abundance of gem mint base rookies in the market which will keep prices relatively low. But none of this is unhealthy per se. You can still have a healthy card market where wax is affordable and base rookies do not carry any insane premium.

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

Luka and Mahomes are both freaks with some very rare cards- the combo gets you to $250k very quickly

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

Until Luka and Mahomes solidify themselves as all times great I would stay away at the current prices. Are they on pace, sure... But a lot of players have been really great and all it takes is one injury.

There are going to be a lot more people getting burned investing in these prices than winners.

[ThoseBackPages]

we are old heads

its not 2016 anymore

[ThoseBackPages]

to todays generation, 1K is not "a lot" of money

[discodanman45]

The fact is this. Some of the people collecting cards right now are young and filthy rich. With youtube stars, athletes, rappers, and reality stars all jumping into the card collecting community this may be the new norm. I think most people here think the market is based on fake borrowed money, which is mostly false IMO. The rich people buying these cards would rather buy a slabbed PSA card instead of a piece of art. For people thinking this will crash, you may never be able to afford these cards again until it becomes uncool. Sneakerheads have been around for awhile now, if something is perceived as "cool" it can extend for a long period of time.
. Markets now are driven by celebrities and many celebrities with huge cash are in the game.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think the real question is, if you're a collector that has been collecting for some time, why dont you own Patty and Luka?

if you dont collect non-Baseball, thats fine, but then dont worry about what non-baseball is selling for

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Until Luka and Mahomes solidify themselves as all times great I would stay away at the current prices.

So I shouldn't buy cards of my favorite players?

People tried making the same argument thousands of dollars ago. Glad I didn't listen then.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

We are in a revolution right now. And thankfully we are leaving the bubble boys behind. They won't be missed.

And what is the cause of said "revolution?"

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Publius

And what is the cause of said "revolution?"

certainly not PBMs

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So I shouldn't buy cards of my favorite players?



People tried making the same argument thousands of dollars ago. Glad I didn't listen then.

You can buy whatever you want so it doesn't matter to me. Just because I like a player doesn't mean I'm going to spend an insane amount on their cards though. Especially when there's a good chance I can get their card cheaper in the future.

The prices for everything have jumped so high so fast that prices will come back down eventually for most cards. Mahomes and Luka could be worth even thousands more in the coming year, but nobody really knows. All is fueled by speculation based on current performances.


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