American League MVP

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 09:54 PM

I've been updating the Judge thread with the MVP stuff, but I think this race deserves its own thread.

I think it's still Judge, but Ohtani has been giving him a serious run for his money these past few days.

rngrdanny22 · 08-28-2022, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I've been updating the Judge thread with the MVP stuff, but I think this race deserves its own thread.

I think it's still Judge, but Ohtani has been giving him a serious run for his money these past few days.

I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.

59 HR with measurable WAR lead = Ohtani

60 HR with measurable WAR lead = Judge

Skipscards · 08-28-2022, 09:59 PM

It’s Judge, even without 60 HRs.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

It’s Judge, even without 60 HRs.

It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.

rngrdanny22 · 08-28-2022, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

59 HR with measurable WAR lead = Ohtani

60 HR with measurable WAR lead = Judge

Hey, you asked, and I answered.

Truthfully, I think he has to break the AL record, so 62+. That milestone would absolutely guarantee it.

Ohtani has a good shot at Top-5 for AL Cy Young. Add in the fact that he'll likely have 30+ HR's, and that's tough for Judge to overcome with hitting alone. We saw it last year with Guerrero and Ohtani was unanimous.

As of right now, Fangraphs has Judge at 8.0 WAR to Ohtani's 6.8. They are 1-2 in the AL. If that gap closes, I think the voters give Ohtani the nod because "nobody's done this since Babe Ruth".

Trueblue · 08-28-2022, 10:05 PM

Both fantastic players that deserve the award in nearly any given year. This one will likely depend on the writer's opinion and logic.

That said, anyone putting down the other player just because they want the other one to win is an idiot and should just go home. 50+ homers? 200Ks and 30+ HRs? Learn to appreciate the game - what a great year in baseball!

Skipscards · 08-28-2022, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.

True. And Ohtani is amazing. It’s possible I’m wrong, but sometimes the writers just like to spread things around. Funny thing is, even with time missed, Trout is having a pretty great season too. It’s a shame he missed so much time or he’d be right there.

Trueblue · 08-28-2022, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.

Trout doesn't play two ways. Bill James was not factoring or even thinking about a two-way player when he invented the metric. I'm not saying it sways the argument either way, but it's not that straight forward.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Trout doesn't play two ways. Bill James was not factoring or even thinking about a two-way player when he invented the metric. I'm not saying it sways the argument either way, but it's not that straight forward.

It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.

atk825 · 08-28-2022, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.

It’s going to be Judge and I fully understand how valuable Ohtani is as a pitcher and hitter.

Trueblue · 08-28-2022, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.

Yes, clearly. What about the extra roster spot? If your belief is that it adds no value, then fair enough.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Yes, clearly. What about the extra roster spot? If your belief is that it adds no value, then fair enough.

Not sure it's that simple. If you go that route, wouldn't you also need to view the negatives? You lose the older, injury-prone guys like Rendon and Trout if they don't play the field.

Trueblue · 08-28-2022, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Not sure it's that simple. If you go that route, wouldn't you also need to view the negatives? You lose the older, injury-prone guys like Rendon and Trout if they don't play the field.

What you're advocating/saying is also exactly what I'm saying. Do you count the replacement roster member as a replacement level player or the actual player that got added in real life? It's simply not straightforward what that's worth. Is it enough to cover -3.0 WAR in variance? Obviously not, but it's worth noting.

NYRE2PECT · 08-28-2022, 10:27 PM

Two seemingly great guys, on wildly different teams (success wise), both balling. This is going to be a fun finish to the season and was mentioned, Trouty would have a seat at the table if he didn't miss so much time.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trueblue

What you're advocating/saying is also exactly what I'm saying. Do you count the replacement roster member as a replacement level player or the actual player that got added in real life? It's simply not straightforward what that's worth. Is it enough to cover -3.0 WAR in variance? Obviously not, but it's worth noting.

That would seemingly open the can of worms of considering other factors besides only that player themselves.

atk825 · 08-28-2022, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.

Yes…and? A DH gets dinged because he doesn’t play defense, why wouldn’t Ohtani get credit for being an incredible hitter and pitcher?

Trueblue · 08-28-2022, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

That would seemingly open the can of worms of considering other factors besides only that player themselves.

Isn't that what WAR is? If everyone hit .300 with 30 homers and you did the same (Assuming neutral defense), you'd have 0 WAR.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atk825

Yes…and? A DH gets dinged because he doesn’t play defense, why wouldn’t Ohtani get credit for being an incredible hitter and pitcher?

How is he not?

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Isn't that what WAR is? If everyone hit .300 with 30 homers and you did the same (Assuming neutral defense), you'd have 0 WAR.

Ah, Ok. I get what you're saying.

Bcr · 08-28-2022, 10:47 PM

It should be Ohtani but likely will go to Judge. Voters will want to pick someone new and Judge is Yankee.

It would be different if Ohtani was doing average at both but he is a legit Top 5 pitcher while also being a Top 25 batter in the AL.

atk825 · 08-28-2022, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

How is he not?

He is. I may be confusing your point that just adding up pitching and hitting isn’t fair.

BabaORiley · 08-28-2022, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcr

It should be Ohtani but likely will go to Judge. Voters will want to pick someone new and Judge is Yankee.

It would be different if Ohtani was doing average at both but he is a legit Top 5 pitcher while also being a Top 25 batter in the AL.

Top 25 batter in the AL? He's Top-7 or better in the AL in OPS, OPS+, wRC, HR, RBI. I'd say he's objectively a top-10 AL hitter.

rman112 · 08-28-2022, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atk825

He is. I may be confusing your point that just adding up pitching and hitting isn’t fair.

Nah, I wasn't trying to say that.

pete2345 · 08-28-2022, 11:04 PM

Judge and its not close that roadside attraction ohtani got his lucky MVP last season.

08-28-2022, 09:54 PM	#1
rman112 Banned Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Freedom is Free Again Posts: 40,946	American League MVP I've been updating the Judge thread with the MVP stuff, but I think this race deserves its own thread. I think it's still Judge, but Ohtani has been giving him a serious run for his money these past few days.

08-28-2022, 09:59 PM	#4
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 30,224 jlankf2 jmp4	It’s Judge, even without 60 HRs. __________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

08-28-2022, 10:27 PM	#15
NYRE2PECT Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: San Antonio Posts: 8,158	Two seemingly great guys, on wildly different teams (success wise), both balling. This is going to be a fun finish to the season and was mentioned, Trouty would have a seat at the table if he didn't miss so much time. __________________ Primarily retired from collecting, but doing a Greatest Sho-man binder thing. I do love California Angels baseball.

08-28-2022, 10:05 PM	#7
Trueblue Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: socal Posts: 6,785	Both fantastic players that deserve the award in nearly any given year. This one will likely depend on the writer's opinion and logic. That said, anyone putting down the other player just because they want the other one to win is an idiot and should just go home. 50+ homers? 200Ks and 30+ HRs? Learn to appreciate the game - what a great year in baseball!

08-28-2022, 10:47 PM	#21
Bcr Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 2,779	It should be Ohtani but likely will go to Judge. Voters will want to pick someone new and Judge is Yankee. It would be different if Ohtani was doing average at both but he is a legit Top 5 pitcher while also being a Top 25 batter in the AL.

08-28-2022, 11:04 PM	#25
pete2345 Banned Join Date: Apr 2018 Location: Birthplace of Michael Jordan home of biggie smalls! Posts: 4,125	Judge and its not close that roadside attraction ohtani got his lucky MVP last season.