538's 2022-2023 Player Projections dropped

[daeve]

Remember, this is a model and it's not perfect, but for a free service it can be pretty darn useful/interesting. The first, most obvious thing to note is Lamelo's position near the very top - very interesting, though not sure I see it. He will likely compile quite a lot of stats this year though and who knows, maybe he does make a leap.

MVP Candidate

Nikola Jokic
Giannis Antetokounmpo
LaMelo Ball
Luka Doncic
Joel Embiid

All-Star

Devin Booker
Jimmy Butler
Stephen Curry
Anthony Edwards
Darius Garland
Paul George
Rudy Gobert
James Harden
Ja Morant
Jayson Tatum
Fred VanVleet

Borderline All-Star

Bam Adebayo
Jarrett Allen
Lonzo Ball
Mikal Bridges
Miles Bridges
Jaylen Brown
Clint Capela
Alex Caruso
Anthony Davis
Kevin Durant
Jrue Holiday
Kyrie Irving
LeBron James
Damian Lillard
Donovan Mitchell
Dejounte Murray
Chris Paul
Jakob Poeltl
Immanuel Quickley
Terry Rozier
Domantas Sabonis
Pascal Siakam
Marcus Smart
Karl‑Anthony Towns
Derrick White

Future All-Star

Desmond Bane
Scottie Barnes
Cade Cunningham
Tyrese Haliburton
Franz Wagner
Trae Young

Good Starter

OG Anunoby
Jalen Brunson
John Collins
Dorian Finney‑Smith
Kristaps Porzingis
D'Angelo Russell

Average Starter

Bradley Beal
DeMar DeRozan
De'Aaron Fox
Aaron Gordon
Tobias Harris
Buddy Hield
Kevin Huerter
Brandon Ingram
Zach LaVine
CJ McCollum
Khris Middleton
Royce O'Neale
Isaac Okoro
Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Vucevic
Andrew Wiggins

Dubious Starter

Harrison Barnes
Julius Randle

Key Role Player

Steven Adams
Patrick Beverley
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Chris Boucher
Dillon Brooks
Alec Burks
Brandon Clarke
Jordan Clarkson
Mike Conley
Robert Covington
Jae Crowder
Andre Drummond
Draymond Green
Montrezl Harrell
Al Horford
Andre Iguodala
Cameron Johnson
John Konchar
Kawhi Leonard
Kevon Looney
Kyle Lowry
Cody Martin
Garrison Mathews
Jamal Murray
Jusuf Nurkic
Onyeka Okongwu
Cameron Payne
Gary Payton II
Otto Porter Jr.
Derrick Rose
Ben Simmons
Max Strus
Matisse Thybulle
Myles Turner
Kemba Walker
Robert Williams III
Delon Wright

Up-and-Comer

Deandre Ayton
Jose Alvarado
Deni Avdija
RJ Barrett
Josh Giddey
Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander
Isaiah Hartenstein
Tyler Herro
Bones Hyland
Isaiah Jackson
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Keldon Johnson
Stanley Johnson
Herbert Jones
Tyrese Maxey
De'Anthony Melton
Evan Mobley
Jordan Poole
Michael Porter Jr.
Mitchell Robinson
Day'Ron Sharpe
Jalen Suggs
Gary Trent Jr.
Jarred Vanderbilt
Devin Vassell
Ziaire Williams
Zion Williamson

Rotation Player

Precious Achiuwa
Nickeil Alexander‑Walker
Grayson Allen
Kyle Anderson
Marvin Bagley III
Mo Bamba
Dalano Banton
Charles Bassey
Nicolas Batum
Kent Bazemore
Malik Beasley
Davis Bertans
Leandro Bolmaro
James Bouknight
Tony Bradley
Malcolm Brogdon
Bruce Brown
Troy Brown Jr.
Reggie Bullock
Trey Burke
Jared Butler
Bruno Caboclo
Devontae Cacok
Kentavious Caldwell‑Pope
Devin Cannady
Jevon Carter
Wendell Carter Jr.
Justin Champagnie
Chris Chiozza
Nic Claxton
Amir Coffey
Pat Connaughton
Jarrett Culver
Seth Curry
Terence Davis
Donte DiVincenzo
Hamidou Diallo
Gorgui Dieng
Spencer Dinwiddie
Luguentz Dort
Ayo Dosunmu
Jeff Dowtin
Chris Duarte
David Duke Jr.
Derrick Favors
Malachi Flynn
Trent Forrest
Evan Fournier
Markelle Fultz
Daniel Gafford
Danilo Gallinari
Devonte' Graham
Jerami Grant
Javonte Green
Josh Green
Blake Griffin
Quentin Grimes
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Josh Hart
Gordon Hayward
Willy Hernangomez
Malcolm Hill
Aaron Holiday
Justin Holiday
Richaun Holmes
Talen Horton‑Tucker
De'Andre Hunter
Jonathan Isaac
Josh Jackson
Reggie Jackson
Ty Jerome
Isaiah Joe
Tre Jones
Tyus Jones
Derrick Jones Jr.
Cory Joseph
Frank Kaminsky
Luke Kennard
Braxton Key
Corey Kispert
Maxi Kleber
Furkan Korkmaz
Luke Kornet
Jeremy Lamb
Romeo Langford
Caris LeVert
Damion Lee
Saben Lee
Nassir Little
Brook Lopez
Kevin Love
Terance Mann
Lauri Markkanen
Naji Marshall
Caleb Martin
Skylar Mays
Miles McBride
T.J. McConnell
Jaden McDaniels
Jalen McDaniels
Jordan McLaughlin
Sam Merrill
Patty Mills
Shake Milton
Davion Mitchell
Malik Monk
Greg Monroe
Xavier Moon
Monte Morris
Trey Murphy III
Mike Muscala
Larry Nance Jr.
Aaron Nesmith
Raul Neto
Georges Niang
Nerlens Noel
Jaylen Nowell
Frank Ntilikina
David Nwaba
Josh Okogie
Victor Oladipo
Kelly Olynyk
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Mason Plumlee
Kevin Porter Jr.
Bobby Portis
Dwight Powell
Norman Powell
Taurean Prince
Payton Pritchard
Austin Reaves
Cam Reddish
Davon Reed
Paul Reed
Naz Reid
Josh Richardson
Duncan Robinson
Ricky Rubio
Dennis Schroder
Landry Shamet
Anfernee Simmons
Jericho Sims
Jalen Smith
Jae'Sean Tate
Daniel Theis
Brodric Thomas
Klay Thompson
Xavier Tillman
Obi Toppin
Juan Toscano‑Anderson
Gabe Vincent
Dean Wade
Moritz Wagner
Ish Wainright
John Wall
P.J. Washington
Duane Washington Jr.
Lindy Waters III
Coby White
Grant Williams
Kenrich Williams
D.J. Wilson
Dylan Windler
Justise Winslow
Christian Wood
Thaddeus Young
Ivica Zubac

Defensive Specialist

Udoka Azubuike
Khem Birch
Vernon Carey Jr.
Zach Collins
Taj Gibson
Serge Ibaka
Chuma Okeke
Neemias Queta
Jeremiah Robinson‑Earl
Isaiah Stewart
James Wiseman

Great Prospect

Paolo Banchero
Ousmane Dieng
Chet Holmgren
Walker Kessler
Jabari Smith Jr.

Good Prospect

Kennedy Chandler
Dyson Daniels
Johnny Davis
Jalen Duren
Tari Eason
Jaden Ivey
Bennedict Mathurin
Josh Minott
Keegan Murray
Shaedon Sharpe
Jeremy Sochan
Mark Williams

OK Prospect

Ochai Agbaji
Hugo Besson
Malaki Branham
Christian Braun
Kendall Brown
Julian Champagnie
JD Davison
Keon Ellis
AJ Griffin
Nikola Jovic
Trevor Keels
Christian Koloko
Jake LaRavia
E.J. Liddell
Kenneth Lofton Jr.
Isaiah Miller
Wendell Moore Jr.
Andrew Nembhard
Scotty Pippen Jr.
Gabriele Procida
David Roddy
Ryan Rollins
Marko Simonovic
Matteo Spagnolo
Jaden Springer
Dalen Terry
Jabari Walker
TyTy Washington Jr.
Peyton Watson
Blake Wesley
Jalen Williams
Jaylin Williams

Marginal Prospect

Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Dominick Barlow
MarJon Beauchamp
Buddy Boeheim
Jamaree Bouyea
Gabe Brown
Max Christie
Darius Days
Moussa Diabate
Michael Foster Jr.
Collin Gillespie
Tyler Hall
Jaden Hardy
Jared Harper
Ron Harper Jr.
Kevon Harris
Caleb Houstan
Trevor Hudgins
Jay Huff
Feron Hunt
David Johnson
Carlik Jones
Kai Jones
Johnny Juzang
Ismael Kamagate
Arnoldas Kulboka
A.J. Lawson
Justin Lewis
Scottie Lewis
Gabriel Lundberg
Makur Maker
Tyrese Martin
Karlo Matkovic
Mac McClung
Bryce McGowens
Isaiah Mobley
RJ Nembhard Jr.
Eugene Omoruyi
Yves Pons
Jason Preston
Trevelin Queen
Jared Rhoden
Orlando Robinson
Matt Ryan
Gui Santos
Jordan Schakel
Xavier Sneed
D.J. Stewart Jr.
Isaiah Todd
Alondes Williams
Trevion Williams
Vince Williams Jr.
Moses Wright
McKinley Wright IV

Scrappy Veteran

LaMarcus Aldridge
Goran Dragic
Rudy Gay
Danny Green
George Hill
Joe Ingles
Wesley Matthews
JaVale McGee
Paul Millsap
P.J. Tucker

Way Past His Prime

Carmelo Anthony
D.J. Augustin
Wayne Ellington
Jeff Green
Udonis Haslem
Dwight Howard
Garrett Temple
Lou Williams

Project

Santi Aldama
Cole Anthony
Darius Bazley
Saddiq Bey
Goga Bitadze
Bol Bol
Brandon Boston Jr.
Ignas Brazdeikis
Oshae Brissett
Moses Brown
Greg Brown III
Chaundee Brown Jr.
Josh Christopher
Kessler Edwards
CJ Elleby
Bruno Fernando
Marcus Garrett
Usman Garuba
Luka Garza
Jalen Green
Rui Hachimura
R.J. Hampton
Jaxson Hayes
Killian Hayes
Elijah Hughes
Frank Jackson
Jalen Johnson
Keon Johnson
Kevin Knox II
Vit Krejci
Jonathan Kuminga
Kira Lewis Jr.
Isaiah Livers
Theo Maledon
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Tre Mann
Kenyon Martin Jr.
Moses Moody
Daishen Nix
Zeke Nnaji
Jordan Nwora
Aleksej Pokusevski
Joshua Primo
Isaiah Roby
Alperen Sengun
Collin Sexton
Terry Taylor
Cam Thomas
JT Thor
Killian Tillie
Lonnie Walker IV
Trendon Watford
Joe Wieskamp
Aaron Wiggins
Lindell Wigginton
Brandon Williams
Patrick Williams
Robert Woodard II
Omer Yurtseven

Scrub

Will Barton
Bismack Biyombo
Bojan Bogdanovic
Avery Bradley
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Sterling Brown
Charlie Brown Jr.
Keita Bates‑Diop
Thomas Bryant
Vlatko Cancar
Marquese Chriss
Gary Clark
Tyler Cook
Torrey Craig
Dewayne Dedmon
Matthew Dellavedova
Drew Eubanks
Bryn Forbes
Wenyen Gabriel
Anthony Gill
Eric Gordon
JaMychal Green
Maurice Harkless
Gary Harris
Joe Harris
Juancho Hernangomez
Haywood Highsmith
Rodney Hood
Danuel House Jr.
Alize Johnson
Damian Jones
DeAndre Jordan
Mfiondu Kabengele
Nathan Knight
Kyle Kuzma
Anthony Lamb
Jock Landale
Jake Layman
Alex Len
Robin Lopez
Timothe Luwawu‑Cabarrot
Trey Lyles
Boban Marjanovic
Doug McDermott
Rodney McGruder
Ben McLemore
Chimezie Metu
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris Sr.
Kendrick Nunn
Cedi Osman
Eric Paschall
Elfrid Payton
Norvel Pelle
Jamorko Pickett
Theo Pinson
Nick Richards
Austin Rivers
Terrence Ross
Dario Saric
Admiral Schofield
Chris Silva
Ish Smith
Tony Snell
Lamar Stevens
Edmond Sumner
Isaiah Thomas
Matt Thomas
Tristan Thompson
T.J. Warren
Yuta Watanabe
Quinndary Weatherspoon
Russell Westbrook
Keljin Blevins

Shrug

Isaac Bonga
Sam Hauser
Deividas Sirvydis
Hassan Whiteside

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by daeve

Remember, this is a model and it's not perfect, but for a free service it can be pretty darn useful/interesting. The first, most obvious thing to note is Lamelo's position near the very top - very interesting, though not sure I see it. He will likely compile quite a lot of stats this year though and who knows, maybe he does make a leap.

Thank you for posting this. Not perfect, but makes for good discussion.

I agree. Lamelo one surprises me. A few thoughts:

-Even *if* Lamelo puts up big numbers, any way that team wins enough games for him to be considered MVP?


-What does Trae Young in the "Future All Star" group mean?

-LeBron and KD in the "Borderline All Star group?" I think this is where their ages mess with the model.

-How are Demar Derozan and Khris Middleton in the same category as Issac Okoro and Kevin Huerter?

-Zion and Evan Mobley in "Up and Comers" group and not "Future all stars"? hmmm

[jr24ai3]

Alex Caruso is a borderline All Star? But Lavine and Derozan are average starters?

[vktwinsfan]

A fun, imperfect model. Wasn't 538 really early on the Celtics being finals contenders last year?

[mccoolio]

Russell Westbrook on the scrubs and SGA on the up and comer is all I need to see

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by vktwinsfan

A fun, imperfect model. Wasn't 538 really early on the Celtics being finals contenders last year?

They were really early on the Celtics being title favorites during round 2 of the 2020 Bubble. They had the Lakers and big time long shots.

[rustywest]

Seriously, the Russell Westbrook disrespect has crossed the line this off-season.

"Basketball Media" (That's a very loose, and pretty generous label) need to get real jobs in the off-season.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Thank you for posting this. Not perfect, but makes for good discussion.

I agree. Lamelo one surprises me. A few thoughts:

-Even *if* Lamelo puts up big numbers, any way that team wins enough games for him to be considered MVP?


-What does Trae Young in the "Future All Star" group mean?

-LeBron and KD in the "Borderline All Star group?" I think this is where their ages mess with the model.

-How are Demar Derozan and Khris Middleton in the same category as Issac Okoro and Kevin Huerter?

-Zion and Evan Mobley in "Up and Comers" group and not "Future all stars"? hmmm

Yeah, not sure how or if they factored 'wins' into this at all - which is necessary for 'MVP' types. I' guessing it has more to do with pure numbers and is not indicating how real voters may choose. That would probably need to be a separate model, because you wouldn't want to make it a factor when deciding who rotational guys or scrubs are, etc...

Guessing it's going to knock Trae hard on defense again, but it is interesting since offensively he was the best player not named Jokic last year. I wonder if this means the model sees his offensive numbers getting knocked a tad with the Dejounte addition.

Lebron has taken a huge hit defensively, he was only +0.1 last year... guessing it's predicting a further slide on that front. KD rated the same defensively last year.

Huerter has always quietly been liked by models, usually due to efficiency. His move away from being Trae's defensive slave may have something to do with it - now he'll be able to use some energy on offense and not have to worry about being Trae's handicap. As for Okoro, could be the model sees an uptick in offense coming ?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jr24ai3

Alex Caruso is a borderline All Star? But Lavine and Derozan are average starters?

Caruso dropped a fat +5.0 defensive Raptor last year [3rd overall]... that's elite. For reference, it had Draymond at +4.8, Embiid at +4.2 and Thybulle at +4.0 ...

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by daeve

Yeah, not sure how or if they factored 'wins' into this at all - which is necessary for 'MVP' types. I' guessing it has more to do with pure numbers and is not indicating how real voters may choose. That would probably need to be a separate model, because you wouldn't want to make it a factor when deciding who rotational guys or scrubs are, etc...

Guessing it's going to knock Trae hard on defense again, but it is interesting since offensively he was the best player not named Jokic last year. I wonder if this means the model sees his offensive numbers getting knocked a tad with the Dejounte addition.

Lebron has taken a huge hit defensively, he was only +0.1 last year... guessing it's predicting a further slide on that front. KD rated the same defensively last year.

Huerter has always quietly been liked by models, usually due to efficiency. His move away from being Trae's defensive slave may have something to do with it - now he'll be able to use some energy on offense and not have to worry about being Trae's handicap. As for Okoro, could be the model sees an uptick in offense coming ?

On some of these, I think this is where metrics just don't fit in basketball.

For Okoro in particular, if the Cavs bring back Sexton, his minutes get buried in a backcourt with Garland, Lavert, Sexton, Rubio/Neto. I don't think there is enough minutes to even go around for him. So for him to be placed in a group with Derozan and Middleton... yikes.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

On some of these, I think this is where metrics just don't fit in basketball.

For Okoro in particular, if the Cavs bring back Sexton, his minutes get buried in a backcourt with Garland, Lavert, Sexton, Rubio/Neto. I don't think there is enough minutes to even go around for him. So for him to be placed in a group with Derozan and Middleton... yikes.

I don't think it has rotational minutes as a factor. Also probably not accounting for injuries either as it has Chet on there [or he made the cut-off before injury].

[daeve]

Originally Posted by rustywest

Seriously, the Russell Westbrook disrespect has crossed the line this off-season.

"Basketball Media" (That's a very loose, and pretty generous label) need to get real jobs in the off-season.

it's an algorithm dude... and it has nothing to do with this "off-season" - Russ ranked 226th out of 250 in Overall Raptor last year. That along with his age is why you'll see him ranked where he is.

[rustywest]

These people are helping to destroy the game of basketball. The analytic crowd, and I'm from a statistician background. Don't get me wrong, there is certainly value in numbers, but certain advanced stats/models don't give you a silver bullet. So many nauseating experts in an imperfect science

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by rustywest

These people are helping to destroy the game of basketball. The analytic crowd, and I'm from a statistician background. Don't get me wrong, there is certainly value in numbers, but certain advanced stats/models don't give you a silver bullet. So many nauseating experts in an imperfect science

Mostly agree with this (not necessarily destroying basketball). To me it's mostly just fodder for discussion.

I'll keep going back to the Cavs as an example, because that's who I know best:

It's pretty interesting how Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, and Jarrett Allen all had big upticks in defensive metrics this past season, when Evan Mobley joined the squad. It's pretty apparent that the defensive metrics are greatly influenced by the talent around a players. I'm sure the same goes for offensive metrics and well.

At the end of the day, these metrics are good data points in the bigger picture. They just shouldn't be taken too literally.

[tjforce]

Another Gem:

Key Role Player: Kawhi Leonard

[gomiamigo]

Alex Caruso is same group as Kevin Durant?

Oh yeah, these are the guys who said HJC was 98% to beat DJT on election morning!

[elontusk1119]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Another Gem:

Key Role Player: Kawhi Leonard

LOL WTF

[daeve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Another Gem:

Key Role Player: Kawhi Leonard

This was the one everyone on reddit was making fun of - not sure what everyone expected, from a minutes played standpoint, Kawhi has only eclipsed 2000 once since 16-17.

[asujbl]

Evan Mobley is an up and comer?

Joke

[zack88]

LaMelo as an MVP candidate?

[asujbl]

Anyone that has Evan Mobley cards I will trade you straight up for every Bane and Wagner card I have

You’ll win since those are future AS players

Anyone?

[Zedlaw]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Alex Caruso is same group as Kevin Durant?

Oh yeah, these are the guys who said HJC was 98% to beat DJT on election morning!

That’s not how I remember it. I thought Silver was one of the few journalists thinking it was going to be a competitive election, like 70% chance to Clinton.

[Zedlaw]

Originally Posted by daeve

This was the one everyone on reddit was making fun of - not sure what everyone expected, from a minutes played standpoint, Kawhi has only eclipsed 2000 once since 16-17.

He’s still played way more minutes than Caruso, who the ratings seem to like

[MyckKabongo]

I'm all for advanced stats but have never seen a great one-size-fits-all model or stat for the NBA. I've found its best to look at a wide variety of different models and stats and then combine that with the eye test and good old common sense (e.g. "The Warriors have a bunch of guys with deep Finals experience").

538 Raptor had a pretty embarrassing year. They had the Celtics as overwhelming favorites in the Finals and basically disrespected the Warriors throughout the whole playoffs.

It overrates super efficient role players like Derrick White and Caruso that simply can't maintain that efficiency in a bigger role.

[dunkindutchmen]

The Hornets are likely going to lose their leading scorer, so if they are to do anything, not only will Lamelo have to be outstanding, but Mark Williams will have to win ROY....... not likely.

They're projected to be an 8-10 seed so there's no way he'd be in MVP discussion.

Middleton is considered a top 15-20 player throughout the league, any model having him as 'average starter' is a really bad model. Ditto for LaVine and DDR and a bunch of others.

And I like Caruso as a winning player but borderline AS? What? Quickly and D. White as well? Hell to the no.