RWPERU34's Secret Hobby Sauce, 2021 Final Edition

rwperu34 · 10-05-2021, 03:36 PM

This is for batting only. I don't know how much being a hitter and pitcher affects thing other than "a lot". I do know age and team also matter a lot and they are also not accounted for in this ranking.

The Top 10

#1. Vlad-To give an idea of how far out in front he is, the difference between #1 and #2 is the same as #3 to #17.
#2. Salvador Perez-Pretty big drop from #2 to #3, equivalent to #3 to #11. Given how much this season impacted his HOF chances I would be surprised if his prices are not up at least 3-4x.
#3. Teoscar Hernandez
#4. Fernando Tatis Jr.
#5. Rafael Deveres
#6. Shohei Ohtani
#7. Marcus Semien
#8. Austin Riley
#9. Nick Castellanos
#10. Bo Bichette
#11. Matt Olson
#12. Aaron Judge

I realize that's 12. Those last three are tight. There is drop from #12 to #13.

Impact On Prices

Disclaimers

It would be better to compare this to preseason projection. Even better would be how much this season impacts a player's projection which in turn is only as important as how much it impacts HOF/GOAT chances. A breakout at 27 isn't the same as 25 which isn't the same as 22.

Keep in mind I am limited by who I put in my price index in November. So no Perez...or most of the top 10. Ohtani is also not in it due to no BCA.

I project November to November and the prices I'm using here are from mid September.

The Meat Of It

The four biggest gainers are Vlad (#1), Devers (#5), Gallo (#77-Traded to Yankees), and Tatis (#4). So far so good.

The next group of gainers includes Harper (#15) and Tucker (#18). Once again...good. The outlier would be Acuna (#74). His projection will definitely improve, if only a little. His production was early which also helps. I don't know how much this year helped his HOF chances though.

The bottom of the list is all guys who had crappy years.

The guys in the middle that look like outliers to me;

Aaron Judge (#12)-He's up, but did not keep pace with the market. He finished 7 hits, 1 HR, and 2 RBI short of a .300/40/100 season. I think if he gets there in 2 or all 3 it affects his prices.

Bo Bichette (#10)-He ends up flat, trailing the average player by 30%. His year was obviously huge, but I think he was overpriced coming in. He was one of the guys who I said "avoid at all costs" coming in to the season. Being 4th on his team didn't help either.

LouBob (#107)-Combines similarities with Acuna (improved projection) and Bichette (on my avoid list coming in).

Soto (#16) and Yordan (#19) are guys who had good years but fell short of expectations.

Two guys who outpaced the market (albeit only slightly) by wrestling away starting jobs are Brendan Rodgers (#123) and Luis Garcia (#333). I'm hoping to benefit from this with Isaac Paredes next year.

10-05-2021, 03:36 PM	#1
rwperu34 Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: Tempe, AZ Posts: 8,531	RWPERU34's Secret Hobby Sauce, 2021 Final Edition This is for batting only. I don't know how much being a hitter and pitcher affects thing other than "a lot". I do know age and team also matter a lot and they are also not accounted for in this ranking. The Top 10 #1. Vlad-To give an idea of how far out in front he is, the difference between #1 and #2 is the same as #3 to #17. #2. Salvador Perez-Pretty big drop from #2 to #3, equivalent to #3 to #11. Given how much this season impacted his HOF chances I would be surprised if his prices are not up at least 3-4x. #3. Teoscar Hernandez #4. Fernando Tatis Jr. #5. Rafael Deveres #6. Shohei Ohtani #7. Marcus Semien #8. Austin Riley #9. Nick Castellanos #10. Bo Bichette #11. Matt Olson #12. Aaron Judge I realize that's 12. Those last three are tight. There is drop from #12 to #13. Impact On Prices Disclaimers It would be better to compare this to preseason projection. Even better would be how much this season impacts a player's projection which in turn is only as important as how much it impacts HOF/GOAT chances. A breakout at 27 isn't the same as 25 which isn't the same as 22. Keep in mind I am limited by who I put in my price index in November. So no Perez...or most of the top 10. Ohtani is also not in it due to no BCA. I project November to November and the prices I'm using here are from mid September. The Meat Of It The four biggest gainers are Vlad (#1), Devers (#5), Gallo (#77-Traded to Yankees), and Tatis (#4). So far so good. The next group of gainers includes Harper (#15) and Tucker (#18). Once again...good. The outlier would be Acuna (#74). His projection will definitely improve, if only a little. His production was early which also helps. I don't know how much this year helped his HOF chances though. The bottom of the list is all guys who had crappy years. The guys in the middle that look like outliers to me; Aaron Judge (#12)-He's up, but did not keep pace with the market. He finished 7 hits, 1 HR, and 2 RBI short of a .300/40/100 season. I think if he gets there in 2 or all 3 it affects his prices. Bo Bichette (#10)-He ends up flat, trailing the average player by 30%. His year was obviously huge, but I think he was overpriced coming in. He was one of the guys who I said "avoid at all costs" coming in to the season. Being 4th on his team didn't help either. LouBob (#107)-Combines similarities with Acuna (improved projection) and Bichette (on my avoid list coming in). Soto (#16) and Yordan (#19) are guys who had good years but fell short of expectations. Two guys who outpaced the market (albeit only slightly) by wrestling away starting jobs are Brendan Rodgers (#123) and Luis Garcia (#333). I'm hoping to benefit from this with Isaac Paredes next year. __________________ Me: Did I win? Gixen: Yes. You won. Now you're broke.