Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting

tjforce · 05-15-2023, 10:18 AM

I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into.

The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market.

So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few:

Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here.

Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe.

Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well.

I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play?

05-15-2023, 10:18 AM	#1
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 23,568	Hobby Bubble Peak Post-Mortem: Prospecting I can't help but think part of what's hurt the market these past couple years is the absolute collapse in collectability of some of the biggest prospects that people but big, big money into. The sky high prices were built like a house of cards: New money came in, pushed up the prices of cards that could then be spent on other cards, pushing prices up further. But when a player's market absolutely collapses, that money doesn't go anywhere, there's no 'other side of the trade' that shorted Zach Wilson cards and profits off of his collapse. Between the player collapse, Auction House taking 10-20% of each deal, grading companies charging higher and higher prices, etc, more money was being sucked out of the market. So a number of things have caused it, but I want to discuss which prospects were the gasoline thrown onto the fire, and which ones have lived up to they hype (or lack thereof), if anything, so there's some talk about this for the next round of prospects, who won't all work out. I'll start with a few: Zion: This guy might be the poster boy for peak hobby bubble. I don't think there has ever been as much money put into a guy who hadn't yet proven anything on the court, and he came out in a time when the average collector could get some retail wax and make good money by simply grading and flipping. Some real bag holders here. Ja: Passed Zion at one point hobby wise, but it's been a huge fall from grace these past few months. A year ago people would have told you he'll be the face of the hobby. Now his face is on Instagram next to his hand guns. His Panini Chronicles Dunk card is peak hobby cringe. Luka: As a player he has definitely panned out, but the timing of his playoff miss this year has not helped. His Prizm rookie and it's PSA 10 pop of over 19,000 is a poster child for the craze as well. I'll be adding some football players who I think really added to this in a but, but who else we got that people really sunk big money into and how have they performed on the field of play? __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!"